Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#51      
thefalcon5
Combo said:
The fan in me is rooting for Will to be picked high in the NBA draft and for us to get another stud to fill his spot. Our guys going high in the NBA draft is a great thing. And Will seems like a good guy.
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Idk if that’s an absolute truth. He goes in the 20-30 range he probably makes less than what he will here or something extremely comparable.

Throw in the fact that next years lottery outside of the top 3ish picks is a total crapshoot, he could easily be a top 15 pick in 2026 and make upwards of 5 mil a year.

That being said I’m still in the camp that the probability he returns is somewhere <10%.
 
#52      
NarrowJ
Emerson Bigguns said:
My point is that Collin is a replacement level player in the NBA. He is starting because of injuries to teammates. He is not a starting level player, which the meme asserts, which would provide a MUCH bigger salary than JaKobi's. His play as a starter has done nothing to show he deserves that role in the future.

While JaKobi is probably not as good at basketball as Collin, he has a market for his services that Collin no longer has. JaKobi is a very good college basketball player, his value in that league (impact on winning games) is much greater in that context than Collin's is in his.

NCAA sports don't make sense in free market terms for a lot of reasons. It's just not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Forgive me if this seems like an argument for arguments sake... It's been a slow week here.
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He is, apparently... since he is, in fact, starting for them? They have 9 other players on their active roster they could've started instead

Even if you remove this stipulation, it still is wild to me. Dybansta is supposedly getting $8M from BYU this season, which is equivalent to our entire budget and about half of all NBA players make less than that.

I'm totally ok with arguing these mundane things during a slow week, by the way :D
 
#53      
I-L-L 1318
BashCtIllini said:
and what makes no sense is there is 0 ROI. This is just rich people who love college sports saying I want to see my team win.
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I would think overtime this has to level out somewhat for that reason OR if donors get burned and overspend for lackluster performance. Granted, this is coming from someone who has no business talking about that much money.
 
#54      
the juiceman cometh
Emerson Bigguns said:
My point is that Collin is a replacement level player in the NBA. He is starting because of injuries to teammates. He is not a starting level player, which the meme asserts, which would provide a MUCH bigger salary than JaKobi's. His play as a starter has done nothing to show he deserves that role in the future.

While JaKobi is probably not as good at basketball as Collin, he has a market for his services that Collin no longer has. JaKobi is a very good college basketball player, his value in that league (impact on winning games) is much greater in that context than Collin's is in his.

NCAA sports don't make sense in free market terms for a lot of reasons. It's just not an apples-to-apples comparison.

Forgive me if this seems like an argument for arguments sake... It's been a slow week here.
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This is a key point people seem to gloss over.

NCAA still has eligibility rules, changed though they are from a few years ago. This significantly limits the pool of players vs the NBA, which can basically hire any basketball player on the planet, or other pro leagues, which can hire from the thousands of basketball players that have risen up from youth teams across the world, andr college programs from all levels of the NCAA, NAIA, etc. structure in the U.S.

So if there is a high demand by every team in the NCAA market for say, a knock-down shooter, and you only have a limited pool of eligible players to draw on, what happens to the cost of a knock-down shooter? Well, obviously, it goes up. And then if you're a team that wants to really be competitive, you want one of the best. A true difference-maker. And so does every other serious competitor. And so the cost of going from a good shooter to an elite shooter rises disproportionately, because that added little competitive advantage is extremely hard to find in the limited pool of NCAA eligible players.
 
#56      
NarrowJ
tatupu70 said:
I think he was answering your question. Supply and demand. There are fewer players with college eligibility that have his skills. Therefore the price goes up.
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I didn't have a question, I shared a meme

Fully understand 'why' but this stuff is all pretty crazy (& completely unregulated), which is the whole point of the meme
 
#57      
Battle89
Very lively economics discussion last night, sorry I missed it! Had several replies queued up in my head, from both a businessman / capitalist POV and from a fan POV. Trouble is that my own responses often conflicted with one another. As one poster stated, balance is what's needed.

Only thing I'd add is that it's revenue sharing being discussed, not profit sharing (like Brad Pitt getting a % of the movie gross, not the net). And therein lies the difference.

Anyway, everyone can thank Dan for the new thread and saving us all from a string of my rants! :LOL:
 
#58      
ChiefGritty
NarrowJ said:
Just to add more 'times are a changin' commentary to the recruiting thread, I recently saw a social media post along the lines of:

Jakobi Gillespie is getting 3M from Tennessee to play a 35ish game season

Collin Gillespie starts for the Phoenix suns who play an 82 game schedule and he will make about 20% of that (560k)

Ron Burgundy Anchorman GIF by Ben L
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Just to keep our scales calibrated here, elsewhere on the Suns Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker are making 51, 50 and 49 million this year respectively, all in the middle of nine-figure deals.

Incentives are changing at the margin, but the big money is still in the pros.
 
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#61      
Battle89
RollChief said:
I’m writing here today on what seems like another slow news day of disputing whether or not now is the time to panic about the Illini’s basketball season or college basketball on the whole being ruined with an idea – I’ll preface this proposal with the more I think about it, the more I feel like the kid that raises his hand right before class ends and asks about the homework that is due today which the teacher forgot to mention, but hear me out here:

While temporarily escaping into sports fandom today, like many others on this board do midday on a Friday, I was reading KenPom’s latest blog post. This post was about the results of the H.U.M.A.N poll, which KP polls users to establish preseason rankings picked purely by fans, by giving users the option to pick 50 head-to-head matchups for who is going to be the higher-ranked team by the end of the year. From this, a preseason list is established. It’s essentially a thought experiment and doesn’t feed into data on his actual algorithm.

In his blog post, he posted a statement from this year’s best picker (Champion Ball-Knower of the Year), who is a UCONN fan (you can read the full post with the statement here). The thing that caught my eye is the guy mentioned “I'm a contributing writer to Storrs Central, a media website that spun off of the Bleeding Blue For Good NIL collective. 100% of subscription profit from the site pays NIL deals to UConn athletes (staff is paid by website sponsors/ads).”

I know the Storrs Central isn’t a message board, but this caught my eye because I tried to look at Duke’s equivalent of Illinois Loyalty yesterday and realized that you have to pay to use their site. It got me thinking that what if this board implemented a membership fee to view/contribute where proceeds went NIL pot? If other major programs have enough of a following, don’t we? I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but Illinois is the 4th most tracked team on KenPom out of 365 D-1 schools, so there is clearly a pretty large fan base both using this site and other sites like KenPom.

Just food for thought, but if @Dan decided to implement a paywall for this site where the subscription fees went to pay for the betterment of our programs, I would not complain about this. Maybe a hot take but if we’re a championship caliber message board then maybe we should pay like one.

I know I have a tendency to be a bit of a KenPom glazer on here but a blog he wrote earlier this week about the (positive) effects of NIL and the transfer portal on college basketball provided some good thoughts on arguments had on here every day, so is definitely worth a read: NIL and the transfer portal has made college hoops better than ever.
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Might be my most-disliked post I have ever read here. I write that not knowing if I will be in the majority or in the minority and not really giving a damn. Your homework example above is very apt.

I have zero interest is being forced to contribute to NIL with a 'personal reading license'. Some here give money to NIL already, some pay with IFund donations (not NIL I know) for seating, others buy NIL shirts. Some do nothing. All are their prerogative.

You'd drive away many of the posters who make this site great. Now if you want to make an alternative argument that Dan should be compensated for his efforts, above whatever ad revenue he earns, I'm listening. I still don't want it, because I think it would fundamentally change this place, but it's what I do to read Robert.
 
#62      
RimPressure
sdiver68 said:
This.

I think there's also a lesson here for relying on NBA analytics at the collegiate level.
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So much this. Much more likely for things to return to the mean over the course of a 7 game series - lets you accept more risk in higher variance and shoot for a higher ceiling. (pun intended)
 
#63      
ChiefGritty
RimPressure said:
So much this. Much more likely for things to return to the mean over the course of a 7 game series - lets you accept more risk in higher variance and shoot for a higher ceiling. (pun intended)
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Lots more possessions in an NBA game too.

The NBA has the least random championship determining system in US sports by a fair margin. It's becoming a much more randomized sport in the way it's played (maybe our 3's fall tonight, maybe they don't), but historically the NBA champion has had to truly prove itself as the best team.

That's cool. March Madness is also cool. Let different things be different, the omni-enemy is homogenization.
 
#64      
ImGonnaBeILL
dainjazoner said:
storr is a bargin. the cheapest all big 10 level player u can get.
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He's definitely a potential bargain. I still wouldn't rule out a team getting desperate and paying big on his potential the longer it goes on. Options are dwindling.

Desperate in the way I thought KState got desperate last year with Coleman giving him $2m. Coleman was a solid complimentary college player. He never is/was/ever will be the go to guy option KState paid him to be. And they got a dubious .40/.30/.57 line and a .500 record out of it. These guys that are solid college players but bleak NBA prospects are doing awesome getting life changing money they won't see again. And getting to do it on a great NCAA stage. Playing overseas/G League isn't a glamorous life

If there's any doubt that Will will spend time in G-league, he'd be a fool not to return to college, get stronger/improve, and get to play on the college stage making as much/more money vs playing in lifeless G league buildings where no defense is played.
 
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#65      
RimPressure
ChiefGritty said:
Lots more possessions in an NBA game too.

The NBA has the least random championship determining system in US sports by a fair margin. It's becoming a much more randomized sport in the way it's played (maybe our 3's fall tonight, maybe they don't), but historically the NBA champion has had to truly prove itself as the best team.

That's cool. March Madness is also cool. Let different things be different, the omni-enemy is homogenization.
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Yeah I don't think anyone is arguing for the NCAA Tourney to be more like the NBA.

I guess we're stating the obvious but I was just agreeing with @sdiver68 that you'd want to control for variance much more when applying analytics to the NCAA tourney vs the NBA playoffs.
 
#74      
Govoner Vaugn Fan
RollChief said:
I’m writing here today on what seems like another slow news day of disputing whether or not now is the time to panic about the Illini’s basketball season or college basketball on the whole being ruined with an idea – I’ll preface this proposal with the more I think about it, the more I feel like the kid that raises his hand right before class ends and asks about the homework that is due today which the teacher forgot to mention, but hear me out here:

While temporarily escaping into sports fandom today, like many others on this board do midday on a Friday, I was reading KenPom’s latest blog post. This post was about the results of the H.U.M.A.N poll, which KP polls users to establish preseason rankings picked purely by fans, by giving users the option to pick 50 head-to-head matchups for who is going to be the higher-ranked team by the end of the year. From this, a preseason list is established. It’s essentially a thought experiment and doesn’t feed into data on his actual algorithm.

In his blog post, he posted a statement from this year’s best picker (Champion Ball-Knower of the Year), who is a UCONN fan (you can read the full post with the statement here). The thing that caught my eye is the guy mentioned “I'm a contributing writer to Storrs Central, a media website that spun off of the Bleeding Blue For Good NIL collective. 100% of subscription profit from the site pays NIL deals to UConn athletes (staff is paid by website sponsors/ads).”

I know the Storrs Central isn’t a message board, but this caught my eye because I tried to look at Duke’s equivalent of Illinois Loyalty yesterday and realized that you have to pay to use their site. It got me thinking that what if this board implemented a membership fee to view/contribute where proceeds went NIL pot? If other major programs have enough of a following, don’t we? I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but Illinois is the 4th most tracked team on KenPom out of 365 D-1 schools, so there is clearly a pretty large fan base both using this site and other sites like KenPom.

Just food for thought, but if @Dan decided to implement a paywall for this site where the subscription fees went to pay for the betterment of our programs, I would not complain about this. Maybe a hot take but if we’re a championship caliber message board then maybe we should pay like one.

I know I have a tendency to be a bit of a KenPom glazer on here but a blog he wrote earlier this week about the (positive) effects of NIL and the transfer portal on college basketball provided some good thoughts on arguments had on here every day, so is definitely worth a read: NIL and the transfer portal has made college hoops better than ever.
Click to expand...
I suspect that the main flaw in a subscription model is that while Illinois fans are usually rather rabid, they also tend lean toward Midwestern cheap.
 
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