Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#101      
ChiefGritty
the juiceman cometh said:
The most likely reason he will drop after the combine is because his wing span is extremely short for his height. At the Baskeball Without Borders Combine last year KJ actually had a longer wing span than Riley. Another year of college ball is not going to change that.

Yes, he could improve his 3pt shot and that would make him more attractive, but consider the risk/reward here. But if he improves from a 32% 3pt shooter to a 36% 3pt shooter, is that going to dramatically improve his draft position. I think teams are already baking in that our offense chucks a lot and that he was known as a good shooter as a prep recruit, so his shooting percentage may already not be carrying that much weight. And he'll be a year older, which hurts, not helps, his draft stock. And then, what if his 3pt% doesn't go up? Now maybe what was once a minor concern is now a major concern.

The other concern about him is defense. What if that doesn't improve (and I don't think it will, he's just not a plus defender)? Now we have a second year of evidence that he's probably not going to be a good defender.

Now all of a sudden it's a question of whether he'll even be a first rounder.
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The trick with Will is that it's very obvious to us and everybody that if he comes back he would be a good bet to be one of the most dominant scorers in college basketball, his prominence as a college basketball player and his impact on Illinois' season would be gigantic, certainly worth throwing as much NIL as we can muster to try to make happen.

BUT, the league already knows his natural scoring ability and offensive feel, that is priced into his draft stock and he does not have a lot more to prove there. The worries about him are his athletic profile and his defense. It's very, very difficult to convince NBA doubters of those things against college level competition and they're very easy to nitpick. And remember, Father Time is undefeated, he comes back and all of a sudden he's older than his competition for those lottery slots.

So you add it all up and while it's easy to dream about (and certainly possible) him becoming an All-American and rocketing to the very top of the 2026 Draft, there also looks like a real risk that he has the season of Illinois' dreams, becomes an All-American but nitpicky scouting bugaboos put a second-round ceiling on him permanently. This board would be shocked and confused and disgusted, but that's a great outcome for Illinois. It would be a disaster for Will Riley though, so it all flows back into the age old conventional wisdom: if you have a rock solid first round grade you need to go.
 
#103      
ColSLU69
sacraig said:
I mean, he was never the same after he missed time with his wrist wrapped up, so I guess I always assumed he was still nursing it in some way.

He did seem to be playing a lot looser with the ball, though.
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I always felt that the form of KJ's jump shot changed. (As did the results!) It was a stiffer shooting motion. Not free and easy like before. He was thinking too much on his shot. (Protecting it from pain/hurting?) It was like KJ was pushing his shots vs. just shooting them. That same injury probably also led to KJ being "looser" with the ball, leading to some of his turnovers. Regardless of his ball handling/turnovers, I think that KJ's fall off in SHOOTING (both 3s and 2s) is what lowered the Illini's ceiling later in the past season.
 
#104      
orangem
LvilleILL1 said:
Can't go into this too much, but kid gutted through an injury the second half of the season. Really hurt his jump shot.
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Thanks for the info -- it's to Underwood's credit that this team looked like a national title contender in December before the injuries and illnesses hit. Here's to better fortune next season.
 
#105      
logjam
ChiefGritty said:
The trick with Will is that it's very obvious to us and everybody that if he comes back he would be a good bet to be one of the most dominant scorers in college basketball, his prominence as a college basketball player and his impact on Illinois' season would be gigantic, certainly worth throwing as much NIL as we can muster to try to make happen.

BUT, the league already knows his natural scoring ability and offensive feel, that is priced into his draft stock and he does not have a lot more to prove there. The worries about him are his athletic profile and his defense. It's very, very difficult to convince NBA doubters of those things against college level competition and they're very easy to nitpick. And remember, Father Time is undefeated, he comes back and all of a sudden he's older than his competition for those lottery slots.

So you add it all up and while it's easy to dream about (and certainly possible) him becoming an All-American and rocketing to the very top of the 2026 Draft, there also looks like a real risk that he has the season of Illinois' dreams, becomes an All-American but nitpicky scouting bugaboos put a second-round ceiling on him permanently. This board would be shocked and confused and disgusted, but that's a great outcome for Illinois. It would be a disaster for Will Riley though, so it all flows back into the age old conventional wisdom: if you have a rock solid first round grade you need to go.
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Never pass on pie when pie is passing...
 
#108      
Illiniam1984
Teams to keep an eye on for Miller…Us obviously…DePaul, Indiana and Gonzaga. It’s not a done deal to Illinois by any means but we are in a good spot with him…😉
 
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#109      
illini55
I really enjoyed reliving these Jordan moments I saw in real time over the years. Thank you so much for this clip! Anyone who argues for a different GOAT is simply not paying attention. I could add up all the Bryant, Irving, James moments and still not equal the sheer number of jaw dropping moments of MJ. As a Chicago kid, I am forever grateful.
 
#110      
RockfordIllini
ChiefGritty said:
The trick with Will is that it's very obvious to us and everybody that if he comes back he would be a good bet to be one of the most dominant scorers in college basketball, his prominence as a college basketball player and his impact on Illinois' season would be gigantic, certainly worth throwing as much NIL as we can muster to try to make happen.

BUT, the league already knows his natural scoring ability and offensive feel, that is priced into his draft stock and he does not have a lot more to prove there. The worries about him are his athletic profile and his defense. It's very, very difficult to convince NBA doubters of those things against college level competition and they're very easy to nitpick. And remember, Father Time is undefeated, he comes back and all of a sudden he's older than his competition for those lottery slots.

So you add it all up and while it's easy to dream about (and certainly possible) him becoming an All-American and rocketing to the very top of the 2026 Draft, there also looks like a real risk that he has the season of Illinois' dreams, becomes an All-American but nitpicky scouting bugaboos put a second-round ceiling on him permanently. This board would be shocked and confused and disgusted, but that's a great outcome for Illinois. It would be a disaster for Will Riley though, so it all flows back into the age old conventional wisdom: if you have a rock solid first round grade you need to go.
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Very well said. I’ve been wondering the same thing, is whether the current unfinished version of Will has higher stock than a sophomore Will that takes the leap we all think he’s capable of (maybe 18-20 ppg. Closer to 40% from 3. Improved playmaking etc). It sounds like you think his stock is higher this year and I tend to agree with you even though it doesn’t make sense to me.

But this year may be an outlier in college basketball as far as funds available, sort of like the year that KD signed with the warriors. We can likely match or exceed the salary of a late first/early second rounder, which is where Will likely projects, with the peace of mind that our $$ is fully guaranteed and on the table waiting for him.

Will and his family will have a really hard decision to make. Maybe it’s just because I think the biggest factor in Brad’s success has been getting an unexpected “extra” year from several guys (Ayo, Kofi, Coleman, TJ, to a lesser extent Trent and DaMonte), but my gut tells me we get another year from Will.
 
#111      
Emerson Bigguns
ChiefGritty said:
The trick with Will is that it's very obvious to us and everybody that if he comes back he would be a good bet to be one of the most dominant scorers in college basketball, his prominence as a college basketball player and his impact on Illinois' season would be gigantic, certainly worth throwing as much NIL as we can muster to try to make happen.

BUT, the league already knows his natural scoring ability and offensive feel, that is priced into his draft stock and he does not have a lot more to prove there. The worries about him are his athletic profile and his defense. It's very, very difficult to convince NBA doubters of those things against college level competition and they're very easy to nitpick. And remember, Father Time is undefeated, he comes back and all of a sudden he's older than his competition for those lottery slots.

So you add it all up and while it's easy to dream about (and certainly possible) him becoming an All-American and rocketing to the very top of the 2026 Draft, there also looks like a real risk that he has the season of Illinois' dreams, becomes an All-American but nitpicky scouting bugaboos put a second-round ceiling on him permanently. This board would be shocked and confused and disgusted, but that's a great outcome for Illinois. It would be a disaster for Will Riley though, so it all flows back into the age old conventional wisdom: if you have a rock solid first round grade you need to go.
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All great points. The only one missing is likely the most important one. The vast majority of these kids have been dreaming of the NBA for as long as they could dribble a ball. As much as we love college hoops, there is very little chance a Canadian kid was dreaming of Fighting Illini glory.
He has an opportunity to make his wildest dreams come true, and delayed gratification isn't on the menu for most 19-year-olds. I'll be shocked if he isn't sporting Jerry West on his jersey next winter.
 
#113      
NarrowJ
RockfordIllini said:
Will and his family will have a really hard decision to make. Maybe it’s just because I think the biggest factor in Brad’s success has been getting an unexpected “extra” year from several guys (Ayo, Kofi, Coleman, TJ, to a lesser extent Trent and DaMonte), but my gut tells me we get another year from Will.
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Idk about getting an 'extra year' out of any of those guys... they all made the correct decisions to come back, and imo Kofi & Coleman probably both should have stayed an extra year longer than they did... Trent and DaMonte... what...?
 
#114      
HensonHall71
the juiceman cometh said:
The most likely reason he will drop after the combine is because his wing span is extremely short for his height. At the Baskeball Without Borders Combine last year KJ actually had a longer wing span than Riley. Another year of college ball is not going to change that.

Yes, he could improve his 3pt shot and that would make him more attractive, but consider the risk/reward here. But if he improves from a 32% 3pt shooter to a 36% 3pt shooter, is that going to dramatically improve his draft position. I think teams are already baking in that our offense chucks a lot and that he was known as a good shooter as a prep recruit, so his shooting percentage may already not be carrying that much weight. And he'll be a year older, which hurts, not helps, his draft stock. And then, what if his 3pt% doesn't go up? Now maybe what was once a minor concern is now a major concern.

The other concern about him is defense. What if that doesn't improve (and I don't think it will, he's just not a plus defender)? Now we have a second year of evidence that he's probably not going to be a good defender.

Now all of a sudden it's a question of whether he'll even be a first rounder.
Click to expand...
ChiefGritty said:
The trick with Will is that it's very obvious to us and everybody that if he comes back he would be a good bet to be one of the most dominant scorers in college basketball, his prominence as a college basketball player and his impact on Illinois' season would be gigantic, certainly worth throwing as much NIL as we can muster to try to make happen.

BUT, the league already knows his natural scoring ability and offensive feel, that is priced into his draft stock and he does not have a lot more to prove there. The worries about him are his athletic profile and his defense. It's very, very difficult to convince NBA doubters of those things against college level competition and they're very easy to nitpick. And remember, Father Time is undefeated, he comes back and all of a sudden he's older than his competition for those lottery slots.

So you add it all up and while it's easy to dream about (and certainly possible) him becoming an All-American and rocketing to the very top of the 2026 Draft, there also looks like a real risk that he has the season of Illinois' dreams, becomes an All-American but nitpicky scouting bugaboos put a second-round ceiling on him permanently. This board would be shocked and confused and disgusted, but that's a great outcome for Illinois. It would be a disaster for Will Riley though, so it all flows back into the age old conventional wisdom: if you have a rock solid first round grade you need to go.
Click to expand...
We all agree if he's a rock solid first rounder he absolutely should go to the league, there is no question. The debate is if his draft stock does slip after the combine and he's no longer considered a sure fire first rounder and he's more like early second round - in which case I would argue he should absolutely come back. A few points:
1) It's not his wingspan that will drop his stock - that is well known, it's been measured multiple times at multiple HS events - so if we know it, NBA scouts know it and he's currently still considered a mid/late first rounder. It will be his times in the agility/speed drills and his max vertical that would be new info and I do think another year of Fletch would help those
2) Defense - I think he could absolutely improve his defense next year and raise his draft stock
3) Shooting - his shooting could absolutely improve and move up his draft stock, particularly his shot selection
4) Facilitation - he showed flashes of being a good passer and setting up teammates, more of that would help his stock

I get what both of you are saying that it's a risk for him to come back, but I do think he could improve his draft stock. TSJ certainly did. Nothing about TSJ's athletic profile changed from his jr. to sr. year yet his draft stock went from early second round to lottery/mid first round before the off the court issues likely hurt his stock in teams' eyes. What he did was improve his shooting, dominate on the court, show his defense and leadership and that improved his draft stock significantly in the eyes of scouts, even though he was a year older and very old for the draft. There has been other examples, but that is one we're all familiar with. If Will is not a lock first rounder I think he can come back and be first team all big ten and show some things he didn't this year and be a mid first rounder is my point, and I can see a scenario where his athletic profile hurts him in the analytics and as team's relly dive into his year, they will see flaws that hurt his stock
 
#116      
IlliniwekKDR
sacraig said:
It looks like there's a firefight going on in the bus behind him.
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i can haz cheezburger boondock saints GIF
 
#117      
jezzadownunder
LvilleILL1 said:
Can't go into this too much, but kid gutted through an injury the second half of the season. Really hurt his jump shot.
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Why is this info still hush-hush? Info we got was he injured it in Washington game but that always felt like a narrative to distract from the real reason. Is the truth that it happened internally and they made sure to keep that in house?
 
#121      
I-L-L 1318
Indy Illini Fan said:
There are some that questioned whether Adam Miller would be good enough to play here …

Here’s the list of a few schools that think he is good enough to play for them … Gonzaga, NC State, Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Florida, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Arkansas, Memphis, and many more …
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Some of these schools, he likely could have a bigger role than what we are offering. He really must have enjoyed playing for ILL
 
#122      
Red77sng
Indy Illini Fan said:
There are some that questioned whether Adam Miller would be good enough to play here …

Here’s the list of a few schools that think he is good enough to play for them … Gonzaga, NC State, Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Florida, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Arkansas, Memphis, and many more …
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When will we find out about the mystery guy. Thank you for all the information
 
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