Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#26      
RockfordIllini
ChiefGritty said:
Let me stir the pot a bit on a topic I've been banging on since this whole NIL mess started.

It seems our NIL power for basketball players relative to the field may be waning a bit.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the board, football is recruiting its best class in a generation.

It's patently obvious this is the same pot of money, and yet we act surprised when that manifests itself.
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I’m not sure it’s accurate to say that our basketball NIL pot is waning. When Adam Miller, a borderline P4 starter, is reportedly receiving offers that approximate what we paid for both our one n done freshmen combined, I think it’s more fair to say that our NIL pot hasn’t spiked with the market, at least for now.

And it’s probably too early to even determine the bball NIL pot hasn’t spiked. Just because we aren’t willing to overpay for players now doesn’t mean we don’t have money to spend. Some insiders have intimated that we will be amongst the schools with a $10M+ roster when the dust settles. I’m willing to wait and see what our roster looks like before evaluating how competitive we are on the NIL front.

A couple of misses (Booth, Humrichous) aside, Brad’s done a pretty good job of finding value in the portal era. He’s seemingly pulled a rabbit out of his hat every year. I’m confident there’s something in the hat again this year.
 
#33      
dainjazoner
NarrowJ said:
Money isn't "drying up", we have more money this year than last year

The market price of players has risen roughly 25% just in the last week (we will get more money)

The "mediocrity" stuff is idiotic
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the market price of a final 4 is 10million. You either put up the money or not.
 
#34      
Poe's Law
ChiefGritty said:
Let me stir the pot a bit on a topic I've been banging on since this whole NIL mess started.

It seems our NIL power for basketball players relative to the field may be waning a bit.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the board, football is recruiting its best class in a generation.

It's patently obvious this is the same pot of money, and yet we act surprised when that manifests itself.
Click to expand...
Basketball NIL $ variance between team was always going to shrink faster than football.

1) the initial gap between the haves and have nots is smaller.
2) one player can have a much larger impact on team performance. For $5M on one player BYU vaults themselves into a tie for 5th best odds next season for a final four. You can’t make that kind of swing with one player in football
3) similarly you can’t talk boosters into role player significantly improving your odds of a deep run or championship so it trickles down to a world where players like Hawkins and Dix allegedly see offers for $2M.

It will be interesting to see where the spending limits go and what if any impact the broader economy has on NIL spend.

For a thought experiment, if LeBron was coming out of high school next season (freshman for 26-27 season), how much is he worth and what’s the highest bid?
 
#35      
HereSoIDontGetFined
NarrowJ said:
Money isn't "drying up", we have more money this year than last year

The market price of players has risen roughly 25% or more just in the last week (we will get more money)

The "mediocrity" stuff is idiotic
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That's unsustainable. This is what I'm saying. Do you think it's going to level off? Besides, I'm not saying it's going to dry up this year. I'm saying in the next three to four years there will be programs - perhaps not Illinois, but there will be programs - that get buried by this era because they don't have the donor pool who are willing to cover teams who go 7-13 in conference and bow out of the first round of the CBI. It's what is happening in baseball right now, but with even fewer rules. Bad teams will remain bad. Good teams will just overspend. It's not a situation where the school can generate more NIL money to pay kids and keep up, unless something even more drastic happens.
 
#38      
NarrowJ
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
That's unsustainable. This is what I'm saying. Do you think it's going to level off? Besides, I'm not saying it's going to dry up this year. I'm saying in the next three to four years there will be programs - perhaps not Illinois, but there will be programs - that get buried by this era because they don't have the donor pool who are willing to cover teams who go 7-13 in conference and bow out of the first round of the CBI. It's what is happening in baseball right now, but with even fewer rules. Bad teams will remain bad. Good teams will just overspend. It's not a situation where the school can generate more NIL money to pay kids and keep up, unless something even more drastic happens.
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Agree 100% with mostly all of this

Thought you were saying our donors weren't going to support the program! (so my bad on misinterpreting)
 
#39      
aveseaboy
Poe's Law said:
Basketball NIL $ variance between team was always going to shrink faster than football.

1) the initial gap between the haves and have nots is smaller.
2) one player can have a much larger impact on team performance. For $5M on one player BYU vaults themselves into a tie for 5th best odds next season for a final four. You can’t make that kind of swing with one player in football
3) similarly you can’t talk boosters into role player significantly improving your odds of a deep run or championship so it trickles down to a world where players like Hawkins and Dix allegedly see offers for $2M.

It will be interesting to see where the spending limits go and what if any impact the broader economy has on NIL spend.

For a thought experiment, if LeBron was coming out of high school next season (freshman for 26-27 season), how much is he worth and what’s the highest bid?
Click to expand...
i would venture to guess higher than flagg or dybansta
 
#44      
From the cheap seats
How the pieces fit together and how quickly that happens in the portal era is so important in basketball...on both sides of the ball. Maybe as important as the number of stars beside a name. One misfit piece and the whole thing can be a little off. I think on the whole Brad and his staff have done a good job of finding the right pieces with more solid hits than misses. I'm fine with them taking their time to find the right combination, realizing that there are multiple ways to build the roster. Florida (HS class outside the top 60 and portal class ranked #35) is a good example.
 
#46      
USAFILLINI
ChiefGritty said:
Let me stir the pot a bit on a topic I've been banging on since this whole NIL mess started.

It seems our NIL power for basketball players relative to the field may be waning a bit.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the board, football is recruiting its best class in a generation.

It's patently obvious this is the same pot of money, and yet we act surprised when that manifests itself.
Click to expand...
I brought this up the other day but haven’t seen much movement. We clearly have the resources, yet we’ve struggled to land those “big fish” in the NIL portal and end up defaulting to the Euro model out of necessity rather than choice it seems.


Do you think this is down to the competitiveness of our NIL packages, lingering perceptions about the program, or something in our schemes? Feels like we are creeping back into Ben-Booth territory again.
 
#47      
Second place is 1st loser
What's more important here is they look to have more resources than we do. The picture was painted(no pun intended) that they had culture guys that just wanted to stay, when that's not the case. They return a first team All American and a second or third team All American(At LEAST first team All Conference) without issue.

They weren't in the list of programs that were thought to have top 10 resources.
 
#49      
IMPE Legend
Heisenbobble said:
Is this an insurance policy in case Sarr won't commit soon? Or can Illinois afford both Sarr and Eaglestaff (and a role/bench player)?
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If this guy is taking anywhere near the same money as Sarr then we definitely should not consider him. I watched one game of the guy in his conference tournament and it was the game right after he put up 51, and he scored...6 in an almost 20 point loss. On 2 for 6 shooting. It was really weird to watch because he didn't even seem interested in trying to shoot. I'm sure he was getting a little more attention from the other team, but the other team was St Thomas-Minnesota, so not sure their attention should have mattered that much if this guy is supposed to play against higher competition next year. He just didn't want the ball. It was tied for his fewest shot attempts on the season so perhaps it was just an off night for him or his arm was too tired from shooting so much the last game, but you would think in that game situation he would have tried to take over...and his team would have tried to get him to take over.
 
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