Your list is 100% correct. Normally, the coaches leave 1 roster spot open. That is the Brad Underwood way (Some of the mid year additions have worked out (Dain Dainja), some not so much (Zach Perrine, Toni Bilic)
14 = is where they are right now with Keaton and Ty still on the roster.
We won't see any additions (transfer portal) until more players leave one of those roster spots officially available.
If you know what the announcements are relating to Ty and Keaton, you are the only one. But officially they haven't been made. I am trying to minimize, not add to the speculation.
I am reading alot of speculation of NIL guarantee = $5mm + NIL incentives that would put Keaton within 20% of guaranteed of the number 5 pick in this year's draft. The numbers are correct, but I don't see Brad being able to write that check, even with the war chest he has which if I calculate correctly is right around $14mm - $15mm before incentives from collectables etc.
So I am not going to speculate. The coaching staff and administration are timing these announcements to gain negotiating leverage. There are also Illinois writers claiming they have spoken to coaches about preference. That is simply not true. Illinois is not about to negotiate against themselves and has never been willing to do so in the past. But please remember, no one had heard of Keaton Wagler last year, Marcus Domask three years ago or Ben Humrichous 2 years ago. Let's just wait an see. The only thing I can assure you is this coaching staff has multiple back - up plans.
If I were in their shoes I would do exactly what they are doing (i.e. waiting as long as they can). I'm certain that isn't popular with this crew, but it is what will optimize the roster for next year.