Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

#901      
Will one of the stats posting people come up with the percentage of times that KB and KW drove to the basket that turned into assists, compared to missed shots. They both could get there but it seems there were not many assists.
 
#902      
I’m just looking forward to more posters insisting this is overly optimistic mental gymnastics post Blackwell-whif
 
#903      
They are literally getting preseason number one shouts on social media by national writers.

A lot of people in here are overestimating what the talent landscape in college basketball looks like next year. Look at other rosters and the lack of tons of high level players left.
I think what people are really trying to say is this: last year, Tomi looked like a shell of himself. He did improve as the season went on, but he was still stuck in a shooting slump. Big Z was flat‑out bad over the second half of the year. Andrej also struggled for most of the season—he didn’t really show up until the tournament, and even then, he still doesn’t shoot it well.
If you look at Mirk’s numbers against top‑level competition, he hasn’t been very good at all. That means he’s going to have to make a significant jump for this team to reach its potential. On top of that, we lost our best player—Keaton—who essentially won us two or three games by himself. We also lost another secondary ball handler.
To think that Coleman is going to step in and immediately replace Keaton is unrealistic. Expecting him to be Keaton—or even Boswell—is a stretch, especially considering Boswell wasn’t consistently that good himself. Vaaks is a very good offensive player, but he’s a major liability defensively.
Because of all of that, I don’t think it’s crazy to say there are a lot of question marks with this team. It’s far from a foregone conclusion that we’re going to be great next year.
 
#904      
I think that this freshman class is VERY special. The are the foundation for a great team in years to come if they stick together. Add a big or two next year and they may be world beaters.

But they're FRESHMEN. Counting on them to carry the team like Keaton did is asking a lot. Acquiring Blackwell as the second guard would mean that we wouldn't have to count on any freshmen. We'd have 7 players who are proven performers at every position with 5 freshmen being initiated into Illini basketball by years end. talent? yes! experience? no....

Love this team....but we're short one scorer at guard.

I. E. we're not quite done...

P.S. In my 70 years of watching Illini basketball, we've NEVER had a freshman before like Keaton Wagler. Should we count on that two years in a row??
To be fair, we’ve had freshman as key contributors most years with underwood.

Ayo
Kofi
Miller/Curbelo
Epps/Clark/Ty/Harris
KJ/Riley/Morez
Wagler/Mirk
 
#905      
Let's take a look at the top 5 pre-season (AP) and National Champions that year for the last 4 seasons:

TL;DR- The National Champion has not been a top 5 team preseason the past 4 seasons. Just a little perspective for those that are feeling like not adding Blackwell dooms our chances.

2022-2023
1. North Carolina (didn't make tournament)
2. Gonzaga
3. Houston
4. Kentucky
5. Baylor/Kansas

National Champion: UConn (unranked)

2023-2024
1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Purdue
4. Michigan State
5. Marquette

National Champion: UConn (#6)

2024-2025
1. Kansas
2. Alabama
3. UConn
4. Houston
5. Iowa State

National Champion: Florida (#21)


2025-2026
1. Purdue
2. Houston
3. Florida
4. UConn
5. St. John's

National Champion: Michigan (#7)
I hear you on this, but we’re not wanting to land Blackwell because it’ll make us preseason #1 per se. We want Blackwell so we can become borderline unstoppable, overwhelm teams with depth and talent, and intimidate everyone in our path lol. To kind of reach that Michigan tier from this last season. I don’t think we should avoid Blackwell to make sure we avoid preseason #1 lol.
 
#907      
Cooould even argue Sophomore Vaaks > Frosh Wagler in overall productivity. (Wagler will have a much better pro career but just in terms of their college impact for one season)
chris tucker facepalm GIF
 
#909      
I don't think he will be as good as Keaton was next year, but I think he is a top three player in terms of high school talent Underwood has signed since he's been here.

I promise you he will not be as good as Keaton. We either live in a simulation or this staff got a copy of Gray's Sports Almanac if this situation happened twice to the same program, let alone in back-to-back years.
 
#910      
We are going to count on one freshman to be a starter and at least one more to be a rotation piece off the bench. That's definitely riskier than just needing one or two to be bench guys. I think this staff has earned our trust at this point, but I still would've preferred getting Blackwell to build a super team. I fully admit to being greedy🤷
Where did you get the impression they backed off Blackwell? He is choosing a different path. He was definitely Plan A, but as far as Plan B’s go, it’s pretty dang spectacular.

What team has a decidedly better roster right now? We’ve relied on freshmen just about every year, as do most teams.

Coleman and Morillo are the kind of prospects we used to pray for. They don’t have to be Keaton. If they can play like freshman Ayo, Adam Miller, Curbelo, Jacucionis, Riley, that kid who went to Michigan…I forget his name… they can fit in just fine.
 
#911      
I mean it's possible. I keep saying this but no one saw what Wagler did coming. It's not some farfetched take that he comes in and really takes off. Look I love Keaton and what he did last year but we got stop acting like no one will ever eclipse his productivity from last year. Is it likely to happen? I would say no but I don't know that for sure and neither do you. No one does. Did you think anyone at this time last year would eclipse Riley or KJ? No you didn't.
 
#912      
Kid shot 65%fg/50%3/90%FT last season, won the state championship & was Mr.Basketball in MO, and people are like, are we sure he’s good?

Keaton’s senior year he won the state championship and was 59% 45% and 83% in The same categories and Mr Basketball. . We all saw what happened his freshman year 👍
 
#915      
With Blackwell- National title favorite

Without Blackwell- National title contender
this literally sums it up best 🫡.

No one is complaining that we’re gonna be “bad” without Blackwell. We’re gonna be awesome.This level of retention WITH talent accrual and minimal portal attrition is unprecedented in the portal era.

But I think it’s fair that people are disappointed that we’re unlikely to land Blackwell, given what the potential could have been. Repeating a final four is ridiculously hard. The closer you can be to “inevitable” (2024 UConn, 2026 Michigan), the more comfortable this forum will be.
 
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#916      
i mean this as a genuine clarification, not disagreeing (especially with an insider 😳) , but perhaps @wncillini was getting at… instead of “one of the best” wouldn’t we have been THE best with Blackwell? And would go from “can win a title” to “even more likely to win a title?”
Also, the point about Illinois being 2nd tier is a valid one. Illinois made the Final Four this year, which was great! But, they weren't really a final four team all season. With a week to go in the regular season most were worried they'd lose in the 2nd round. I don't think Michigan fans were worried about that this year. We weren't worried about that in 2005. That's the difference. Having said that, it's more fun to root for guys that stuck around than hired guns. And the team will certainly be good next year. We could be the 15th best team next year without Blackwell. We could be the 1st. We could also be 15th WITH blackwell. I think he is very good but he isn't Yaxel. I don't even think he is as good as TSJ was.
 
#917      
They are literally getting preseason number one shouts on social media by national writers.

A lot of people in here are overestimating what the talent landscape in college basketball looks like next year. Look at other rosters and the lack of tons of high level players left.
I mean they have a ton of retention and I think they are already preseason top 5 and realistically probably 3 with the current roster.

And I agree with your assessment with the current talent levels for the rest of college basketball with what they are returning and their portal classes.

Which is why I think it's so important to just go all in and spend now because I don't know if there will ever be a better chance to win that first national championship.

If Blackwell is wavering at potentially getting fewer shots with the amount of talent then pivot and go get a Paul Mcneil or Alex Wilkins(looks like UK), or even a Brycen Blaine type guard. Or if we have that money reach back out to Mirko/euro and try to get an Adam Atanma or a different euro guard.
 
#919      
Vaaks is way closer to being a PG than Blackwell.

You also wonder if Andrej and/or Coleman would be here next year if we were getting Blackwell (I'm not saying that's the case, but it seems like a possibility)

I still think Cox would be a great pickup.
I agree with that, but you feel a lot more comfortable with another veteran guard who can handle it and create some. And I’m in total agreement on Cox, at the very least he’d be a good off the bench guard. An injury to either Vaaks or Coleman and we’re in trouble
 
#924      
I think what people are really trying to say is this: last year, Tomi looked like a shell of himself. He did improve as the season went on, but he was still stuck in a shooting slump. Big Z was flat‑out bad over the second half of the year. Andrej also struggled for most of the season—he didn’t really show up until the tournament, and even then, he still doesn’t shoot it well.
If you look at Mirk’s numbers against top‑level competition, he hasn’t been very good at all. That means he’s going to have to make a significant jump for this team to reach its potential. On top of that, we lost our best player—Keaton—who essentially won us two or three games by himself. We also lost another secondary ball handler.
To think that Coleman is going to step in and immediately replace Keaton is unrealistic. Expecting him to be Keaton—or even Boswell—is a stretch, especially considering Boswell wasn’t consistently that good himself. Vaaks is a very good offensive player, but he’s a major liability defensively.
Because of all of that, I don’t think it’s crazy to say there are a lot of question marks with this team. It’s far from a foregone conclusion that we’re going to be great next year.
There are question marks w/o a doubt. The optimistic predictions are assuming that guys will make a big jump. What that's possible, it's far from a guarantee. Heck, I'd be happy if Tomi just "reverted" to how he was his first season.

That said, I think we have a legit shot to get back to the FF.
 
#925      
Wait…aren’t we bringing back 5 of our top 8 players from last year?

We will not be relying on any freshman to “carry the team.” We have 4 seniors and one of the best returning sophomores in the country to do that. The freshmen just need to do their jobs.
These are the same players that needed Keaton on the court for 40 minutes a game for things to run well. I’m not saying the new players can’t fill that role I’m just saying it’s a giant unknown.
 
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