Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

[skyIdub]

Did we move on from 1980’s recruiting already?

1984 Illinois Loyalty was 9 guys in a garage outside of Monticello arguing over Loren Tate articles and the latest issues of Hoop Scoop, Blue Chips, and Street and Smiths Basketball Yearbook…..while the wives and girlfriends had a Mary Kay party and made homemade cottage cheese from the neighbors cows milk.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Last year, Kentucky was said to have the most expensive roster. They started the year at #8.

I'm not sure what those numbers are with USC -- but I like their team preseason a lot more than I liked KY last season (doesn't necessarily guarentee they'll be any better).

KY's roster always had the feeling of overpaying for a bunch of role players as opposed to true difference makers.

 

[jamarvelous31]

Sportsbooks don't either (about 15th best odds to win Natty)... They tend to be better at this than anyone.

I'd say it's a data point, but a sportsbooks' goal is to get slightly above break even betting on any given bet.

The name recognition of the coach, players and conference is going to lead to inflated odds relative to where the book would place them than if they were forced to answer 'who is mostly likely to win'.

 

[wc_illini]

Sportsbooks don't either (about 15th best odds to win Natty)... They tend to be better at this than anyone.

I'm guessing you're looking at Kalshi, but the "Yes" price is inflated for teams with a high spread. The "No" prices (which put USC ~25) are more in line with traditional books (which have them 20-25). Unfortunately you can't sort by "No" price.

As for the other teams being mentioned today, averaging Kalshi and other sportsbooks, UConn is #4, We are #5, MSU is #8, and Tennessee is #13.

 

[wc_illini]

I'd say it's a data point, but a sportsbooks' goal is to get slightly above break even betting on any given bet.

The name recognition of the coach, players and conference is going to lead to inflated odds relative to where the book would place them than if they were forced to answer 'who is mostly likely to win'.

That's all true, but I would expect those effects to be much stronger for teams with recent success or very strong brand/popularity. I don't think USC basketball would benefit a whole lot from that. Regardless, as I just posted, they're more like #25 at Kalshi based on the more reliable "No" price.

Books also inflate odds (reduce payouts) for long shots in general since more dumb money is thrown blindly at those, but that by itself wouldn't re-order teams, just distort the relative chances of long shots compared to the favorites.

 

[illiniguy24]

Yes they are “recruits” again for sure. But their high school ranking becomes mostly irrelevant. They are transferring either because of one of two of these reasons…

One, they aren’t happy or want more money. Two, they outperformed their high school ranking. Three, they underperformed their high school ranking.

One or two**

 

[ImGonnaBeILL]

CBS & ESPN both have them at #14 in the way-too-early rankings... not top 10, but they're not being ignored by any means.

And I am joining you on the opposite side of the fence with them. They have a couple decent transfer guards to play alongside Rice, but the frontcourt is Cofie, Reibe and 3 talented but young freshmen. Also, Rice has only played more than 8 games in a season once and he's been around since 2022. Then you have the coaching of Eric Musselman that hasn't lived up to the hype and I can easily see them as a bubble team this year.

They'll again have more wins than fans in the arena.

Some coaches just throw together a bunch of individual players. Other coaches build actual teams.

 

[audie]

Let's not forget two 1970 Parade All-Americans who didn't quite pan out at Illinois: Billy Morris and Kris Berymon. I watched them play for the Freshman team (yes, there used to be freshman games before the varsity games!) and thought they were going to be superstars.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Guy says NIL and the portal have brought equality?? I suppose if you're Kentucky you think that. Pay for play only works to equalize things though if you've got money, or exceptional talent evaluation and development. It's more like Animal Farm equality, where everyone is equal, just some are more equal than others.

Nobody thinks it's literally equal. Just more equal.

While NIL hasn't made the talent distribution flat, it has made it flatt-er. UK's 2013 class signed 6 of the top 14 recruits, according to 247. Nobody is doing anything like that the NIL era.

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

Nobody thinks it's literally equal. Just more equal.

While NIL hasn't made the talent distribution flat, it has made it flatt-er. UK's 2013 class signed 6 of the top 14 recruits, according to 247. Nobody is doing anything like that the NIL era.

Duke. (especially that 2024 team)

 

[jamarvelous31]

That's all true, but I would expect those effects to be much stronger for teams with recent success or very strong brand/popularity. I don't think USC basketball would benefit a whole lot from that. Regardless, as I just posted, they're more like #25 at Kalshi based on the more reliable "No" price.

Books also inflate odds (reduce payouts) for long shots in general since more dumb money is thrown blindly at those, but that by itself wouldn't re-order teams, just distort the relative chances of long shots compared to the favorites.

Fair. Id also add there is an opportunity for regional bias pushing them up the list given the size of the city and state they're in..

 

[ChiefGritty]

Guy says NIL and the portal have brought equality?? I suppose if you're Kentucky you think that. Pay for play only works to equalize things though if you've got money, or exceptional talent evaluation and development. It's more like Animal Farm equality, where everyone is equal, just some are more equal than others.

It has created greater parity between the blue bloods and the upper middle class like us.

It has opened a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the rank-and-file of the remaining major conferences and the rank and file what were once highly competitive mid-major leagues though. All of their HS scouting wins move up for more money in a year or two now.

What looks like growth in college sports is primarily feasting on the corpses of those left behind. This ravenous beast will be chewing more of its own tail than WSU and OSU over the next few years, I promise you.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

It has created greater parity between the blue bloods and the upper middle class like us.

It has opened a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the rank-and-file of the remaining major conferences and the rank and file what were once highly competitive mid-major leagues though. All of their HS scouting wins move up for more money in a year or two now.

What looks like growth in college sports is primarily feasting on the corpses of those left behind. This ravenous beast will be chewing more of its own tail than WSU and OSU over the next few years, I promise you.

That's why I think the US Government has to be part of the solution. Unlimited immediate transfers are making every mid-major a relegation/developmental league. If the government codifies the rules by applying exemptions to inter-state commerce laws regarding "amateur" athletics, perhaps some of that can be eased. As long as student-athletes are operating as essentially independent contractors, nothing can change. The NCAA is powerless as it stands.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Great perspective on Coleman and Morillo at 9:00 —

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Duke. (especially that 2024 team)

Very good class but still not on the same level. 2-top 10 recruits, compared to 5(!) in that UK 2013 class. And in the post NIL world, the transfer portal is a much bigger part of the overall talent pool for recruiting than it was in 2013, and while they had some good transfers, they didn't have any of the top guys. Their highest ranked transfer was Sion James at #61. That Duke class comes nowhere near the ability of blue bloods to consolidate the top talent pre-NIL.