Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#301      
wc_illini
wc_illini said:
I had Claude write a script that takes past incoming Illini composite ratings and their freshman year Torvik ratings (avg of PRPG! and D-PRPG) to take a stab at some probabilities based on this year's incoming freshman class. Here's what our past recruits with Brad looked like (for reference, on a great team, starters are typically 3+ and reserves are 2-3):
1780939849515.png


I had the script estimate the probability that our entire freshman class will yield at least:
- one good starter and one solid reserve: 57%
- one borderline starter and one solid reserve: 66%
- one borderline starter and one borderline reserve: 78%
- one solid reserve and one borderline reserve: 86%
And if you're dying to know what it says about a 9th man:
- one solid reserve and two borderline reserves: 59%

This is based on a small sample size (35 recruits), so I'm just throwing it out there for fun. I think we all want better than a 66% chance of getting at least a borderline starter and solid reserve, and the coaches know these guys better than any of us, so hopefully enough of the guys coming in end up on the higher side of these predictions.
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This bumps the script's estimated probabilities for our freshman class to:
- one good starter and one solid reserve: 65%
- one borderline starter and one solid reserve: 73%
- one borderline starter and one borderline reserve: 83%
- one solid reserve and one borderline reserve: 91%
And some 9th man scenarios:
- one solid reserve and two borderline reserves: 71%
- one borderline starter, one solid reserve, and one borderline reserve: 62%
 
#304      
Tevo
Is there any more Illinois a name than "Lincoln Williams"? It's like a parody of an Illini athlete.

And is the Slovenian kid's name pronounced "Yak SOM o vich?" or "Jack sim Ov ic?" I hope it's the former.
 
#305      
Second place is 1st loser
wc_illini said:
This bumps the script's estimated probabilities for our freshman class to:
- one good starter and one solid reserve: 65%
- one borderline starter and one solid reserve: 73%
- one borderline starter and one borderline reserve: 83%
- one solid reserve and one borderline reserve: 91%
And some 9th man scenarios:
- one solid reserve and two borderline reserves: 71%
- one borderline starter, one solid reserve, and one borderline reserve: 62%
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Heck of a deep dive man!
 
#306      
hoopsfan47
hoopsfan47 said:
Put me down for guys like Lincoln Williams. All-State as a soph tells me he is not afraid to work hard and has a high motor...not to mention some really valuable skills with a big desire to win.

It would appear that not too much effort needs to go into backcourt recruiting next year...but retention sure will require some effort BU can scour the earth for quick, athletic, skilled bigs now as the Illini will likely lose them all other than JJ. But with QC, Brown, Vaaks, Morillo, and Williams returning (if all goes well) and adding Kitt, that will be a solid group of guards upon which to build. The blessing is that the EDG culture carries on.
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Oh....and I forgot to add another very good guard coming in next year with Kitt...Mason Martin. I love shooters with positional size.
 
#307      
Altuve27
Love it. Depth is never a bad thing because freaky injuries are likely to happen at some
point.

Zens, Brown, and Williams, in my opinion, are capable of providing AT LEAST spot minutes when called upon.

That will win us a game somewhere along the line.
 
#309      
HailtotheChief
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Yes, it looks like a 3-man race between Zens / Brown / Williams.

And maybe Jakstys can work himself into that.
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5/ T, Z maybe Mirk or JJ in a pinch
4/ Mirk, Z maybe JJ
3/ Dre, Jake, Lucas or maybe Zens
2/ QC, Lucas, Dre
1 / Vaaks, QC

Id expect those to be the roles and rankings of playing time at each position. Any player ranked outside of the top 2 at any spot may not even play in close games unless fouls are an issue. I feel that we are very deep at the 3 so minutes will be sparce behind Dre & Jake but not many guys will play the 1, 4, 5 spots either or maybe even the 2 if QC is as good as he looks and Vaaks too then they both may get around 30 or more minutes a game in tight games. How many guys will play more than 25 or so minutes a game. I expect all the top 6 to if not more in close games and that wont leave much for the rest. I hope we have a lot of blow outs so the guys outside the top 7 can be somewhat happy and play more minutes.
 
#313      
Second place is 1st loser
hoopsfan47 said:
Put me down for guys like Lincoln Williams. All-State as a soph tells me he is not afraid to work hard and has a high motor...not to mention some really valuable skills with a big desire to win.

It would appear that not too much effort needs to go into backcourt recruiting next year...but retention sure will require some effort BU can scour the earth for quick, athletic, skilled bigs now as the Illini will likely lose them all other than JJ. But with QC, Brown, Vaaks, Morillo, and Williams returning (if all goes well) and adding Kitt, that will be a solid group of guards upon which to build. The blessing is that the EDG culture carries on.
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Never say that. You mentioned retention and this is completely tied to the 9th man spring/summer long debate. Questions around this:

1)Do any go to the NBA?
2)Are any of these guys bent on immediate playing time?
3)Are any comfortable knowing that they're part of a development plan?
4)Are there transfers out there that make us immediate contenders next year and are plug n play?

Our retention with Freshmen has been pretty awful based on all of the above. The best part is the one and done guys. Hate to lose them, but it's a testament to the program. We've had multiple in two years. Good problem to have. The tougher part ..Guys want to play, it's hard to play when you're brought on as a potential bench piece with three other guys, there's always an odd man out and the 2027 cycle starts the process all over again.

A guy like Lee is the cautionary tale. He wanted to play and bless him for that. He wanted no part of fighting for minutes at the back end of the rotation and I think we all understand. He went to a place that's not going to have our level of success, but the minutes are widely available. Same with Ty. Same with Dre. Winning/Final Fours were not part of the decision making. PT was everything.

If there are affordable plug n plays available next year(we know there will be no shortage).....guys will inevitably get recruited over and won't want a bench role going into year 2.

Pedal to the metal at ALL positions my friend....every year.
 
#314      
Umit9
Very good and surprising (for me at least) news to see today.

Thrilled with L. Williams’ decision. Looking forward to his arrival along with the rest of the new team members.

Go Illini
 
#316      
steelmen72
Given the character Boswell and Fears have shown, I'm not sure I would count it as a miss. It is possible that if Fears came here, BU would have lowered the hammer on him at the first sign of the cheap shots, doing everyone, especially Fears, a big favor.
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Lol. FEARS IS AN ALL-AMERICAN!! Izzo is just fine with Fears playing and taking cheap shots. Not one time has Fears been suspended or reprimanded by Izzo. Damn, character. Fears would have gotten us a National Championship this year, period.
 
#317      
ptgrd23
Kids see the Keaton Wagler story and say Illinois lets the best players play regardless of age. They believe in themselves and give it a shot.

World class training. Practice against future NBA players every day. National television, marquee neutral site games like United Center and MSG. If it doesnt work out he can transfer down.

Its great to see a kid who wants to test himself against the best. Williams had offers from TCU, DePaul, Arizona State and Virginia Tech. He has good size 6'4' and can shoot. Google says he is very athletic. Maybe he wil be our next Sencire Harris defensive stopper who can also play offense. We need more guard depth. He can provide it.

Great to see an Illinois kid on the roster. I think Chris Gandy was last kid from Kankakee. He finally made it his senior year.
 
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#318      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
HailtotheChief said:
5/ T, Z maybe Mirk or JJ in a pinch
4/ Mirk, Z maybe JJ
3/ Dre, Jake, Lucas or maybe Zens
2/ QC, Lucas, Dre
1 / Vaaks, QC

Id expect those to be the roles and rankings of playing time at each position. Any player ranked outside of the top 2 at any spot may not even play in close games unless fouls are an issue. I feel that we are very deep at the 3 so minutes will be sparce behind Dre & Jake but not many guys will play the 1, 4, 5 spots either or maybe even the 2 if QC is as good as he looks and Vaaks too then they both may get around 30 or more minutes a game in tight games. How many guys will play more than 25 or so minutes a game. I expect all the top 6 to if not more in close games and that wont leave much for the rest. I hope we have a lot of blow outs so the guys outside the top 7 can be somewhat happy and play more minutes.
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Jason is the 12th man. Hasn’t proven to be playable in his time here.
 
#320      
ptgrd23
JJ is a 5. He has good size and strength. There may be a game where David gets into foul trouble. Tomas and big Z are not strong enough.

I hope JJ develops at least into George Montgomery level defender rebounder. Better if he develops a drop step like Dain, We don't make elite 8 without Dain.
 
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