Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

#103      
It makes a difference, but maybe not as big of a difference as you'd think. Here was Duke's average player recruiting rating compared to their overall recruiting ranking:

2014: 1 (1)
2015: 16 (2)
2016: 9 (1)
2017: 6 (1)
2018: 8 (1)
2019: 1 (3)
2020: 1 (3)
2021: 4 (6)
2022: 4 (1)
2023: 1 (2)
2024: 1 (1)
2025: 1 (1)
2026: 5 (2)

Only 1 class outside the top 10 in average player rating in the past 13 years. 9 of the 13 years, they were ranked in the top 5.
Right, but that's once Scheyer arrived as an assistant and Duke transitioned to one-and-done.

I'm not sure we're even disagreeing here. The big picture point that Duke supplanted Kentucky as the apex predator of American prep recruiting in the late 2010's is correct.

And then American prep recruiting essentially became a sideshow in college basketball overnight. Is it going to regain its centrality going forward? Many want that to be the case, stay tuned!
 
#104      
Right, but that's once Scheyer arrived as an assistant and Duke transitioned to one-and-done.

I'm not sure we're even disagreeing here. The big picture point that Duke supplanted Kentucky as the apex predator of American prep recruiting in the late 2010's is correct.

And then American prep recruiting essentially became a sideshow in college basketball overnight. Is it going to regain its centrality going forward? Many want that to be the case, stay tuned!
Oh yeah, I am in agreement with your original point that Duke’s recruiting was good, not great, during that 6-7 year stretch before Scheyer arrived.
 
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#106      
Berreout will be the “litmus test” for me.

We clearly have money, and according to insiders, now even more money. But it seems our overall philosophy has rarely been overspending

I’d be curious where our top paid player has ranked in relation to the other top paid players in the sport - it seems we haven’t had a guy in the Milan, Toppin, Flagg, AJ range before - and I’ve honestly been happy with that.

Mirk might be in that tier this year. But even then, that’s probably because it’s a much higher comfort level due to proven performance at illinois.
 
#107      

@DB11Headband - are we still anticipating good news this week???

Jon Stewart Popcorn GIF


edit: I might not be linking you prior post correctly but was referring to your Saturday at 8:31 PM post in the closed thread where you said, "This week should be fun."
 
#108      

@DB11Headband - are we still anticipating good news this week???

Jon Stewart Popcorn GIF


edit: I might not be linking you prior post correctly but was referring to your Saturday at 8:31 PM post in the closed thread where you said, "This week should be fun."
I’m not sure who it would even be.

Betts, Berreout, and Lusakueno seem pretty early on in their recruiting cycle. They’re all officially 2028 for now - no reclass yet.

We haven’t even locked down a top-50 2027 recruit (only one we seem to be on being Pettigrew and he’s waiting on Vaaks/Q projection for 2027-28).

(Perhaps Wabbington switched up on us last min?)
 
#109      
I’m not sure who it would even be.

Betts, Berreout, and Lusakueno seem pretty early on in their recruiting cycle. They’re all officially 2028 for now - no reclass yet.

We haven’t even locked down a top-50 2027 recruit (only one we seem to be on being Pettigrew and he’s waiting on Vaaks/Q projection for 2027-28).

(Perhaps Wabbington switched up on us last min?)
My read was we closed the gap w/ Wabbington, but we were pretty consistently running in third in that recruitment. I was thinking maybe Pettigrew was getting close to committing along with a reclass to 2027. I was also thinking that Betts or Berreout were possibilities.
 
#110      
My read was we closed the gap w/ Wabbington, but we were pretty consistently running in third in that recruitment. I was thinking maybe Pettigrew was getting close to committing along with a reclass to 2027. I was also thinking that Betts or Berreout were possibilities.
Yeah I think you're assessment is spot on regarding the big men. I don't think Pettigrew will even commit without a starting job guarantee outside of Duke.

From splicing together the infinite content on him (he has his own Youtube series):
- Illinois: Obvious homestate program which is on the rise and has been on him forever
- Arkansas: I mean it's Cal. Look at Derrick Rose, Mario Chalmers, all the great UK teams, Darius Acuff Jr., etc. Dude is an NBA factory
- Duke: He's been waiting on an offer from Scheyer for a hot minute. Something about The Brotherhood - it's like a lifelong fraternity of extremely successful athletes both professionally and financially. I see the appeal. I also think it's the only place he'd consider riding the pine a bit year 1. He'll probably keep an eye on how discontent some of the lower MPG players are there this year especially if it impacts their long term NBA stock in any way.
- Florida: Recent national champ and preseason #1. Hard not to see the appeal here also. Weak guard room and no major 2027 commits yet.
- UNC: I could be misremembering but think his dad (Titus) is from Carolina and grew up a big Tar Heel fan.

Feel like it'll end up being a 3-horse race with Illinois / Arkansas / Duke (if they offer). I think we're in a win-win situation with year 2 of QC/Vaaks combo or Pettigrew coming into one of those spots.
 
#111      
Yeah I think you're assessment is spot on regarding the big men. I don't think Pettigrew will even commit without a starting job guarantee outside of Duke.

From splicing together the infinite content on him (he has his own Youtube series):
- Illinois: Obvious homestate program which is on the rise and has been on him forever
- Arkansas: I mean it's Cal. Look at Derrick Rose, Mario Chalmers, all the great UK teams, Darius Acuff Jr., etc. Dude is an NBA factory
- Duke: He's been waiting on an offer from Scheyer for a hot minute. Something about The Brotherhood - it's like a lifelong fraternity of extremely successful athletes both professionally and financially. I see the appeal. I also think it's the only place he'd consider riding the pine a bit year 1. He'll probably keep an eye on how discontent some of the lower MPG players are there this year especially if it impacts their long term NBA stock in any way.
- Florida: Recent national champ and preseason #1. Hard not to see the appeal here also. Weak guard room and no major 2027 commits yet.
- UNC: I could be misremembering but think his dad (Titus) is from Carolina and grew up a big Tar Heel fan.

Feel like it'll end up being a 3-horse race with Illinois / Arkansas / Duke (if they offer). I think we're in a win-win situation with year 2 of QC/Vaaks combo or Pettigrew coming into one of those spots.
Sorry got my wired mixed on Mario given he KU beat that Rose team in the 2008 Natty.
 
#112      
I feel like we go through this every cycle.

It's fun to try and project where our roster is going, but it's also kind of impossible. I kind of have a feeling that we're a little slow this cycle because, on paper, we have a lot of guys who can return and who would eat up both play time and money if they did. This of course makes it hard to reel in a recruit that wants guaranteed play time and money:

Definitely will not be here and thus guaranteed to yield a roster spot and play time:

At this time, nobody I can definitively put in this category

Extremely unlikely, but not impossible, would likely require legal intervention:

1. Tomi Ivisic
2. Zvonimr Ivisic

Reasoning same for both. Neither has exhausted the 5-in-5 years but under the new rule will be ineligible due to age. I think this age-based restriction is primed for legal challenge. Not sure they'd want to go that route, but always a possibility. If it happened, these retentions would be expensive, and play time at the 5 position would be scarce for newcomers. Again, extremely unlikely and don' texpect it to happen, but in this day and age can we really say this is impossible?

Extremely unlikely but would not require legal challenge:

3. Andrej Stojakovic - By all accounts he was very close to declaring for the draft and jumping ship this offseason. He clearly wants to play in the NBA. If he has a good season, he is very going to move on to the next stage of his career.

Possible will still be playing college ball next year:

4. Quentin Coleman - Entirely dependent on his draft stock. If he has the season we hope he has? Likely gone. But entirely possible that he's not ready for the leap and needs another year. Can't really promise away QC's money/minutes until you see where this one is trending.

5. David Mirkovic - Again, likely entirely dependent on draft stock. I think he works himself solidly into 1st, but who knows, he could also be a full 5 year guy if NBA scouts just decides he's missing out on a couple attributes they need him to have to justify a 1st round pick.

6. Stefan Vaaks - Like the previous two, depends on where his draft stock goes as the season progresses.

7. Jake Davis - He's a senior, but only a 4th year one. 5-in-5 makes his return possible. Maybe even likely? Don't think he's getting drafted, but could see a situation where he wants to cash in on bigger money and PT for his last ride, especially if the guys above all leave making him the sole senior statemen on the team. Or maybe that's a role he would relish? If you're the staff roster planning for 2027-2028, I think you have to assume he's going to be in the mix until he tells you he's not.

Will very likely be playing college ball next year and retention is a real possibility:

8. Lucas Morillo - Don't think he's one-and-done and I imagine we're likely to want him to return. He's likely to expect a bigger role next year, and likely to get one unless the staff just doesn't like what it sees as the season progresses.

9. Lincoln Williams - Ditto.

10. Ethan Brown - Ditto, but potentially higher possibility of transfer if route to PT is not clear.

11. Zavier Zens - Ditto to the Ethan Brown comment.

12. Landon Davis - May be in this category or the one below. Kind of hard to tell at this point.

High likelihood of coming back, but no major impact on minutes or roster spend:

13. Jason Jakstys
14. Quentin McCoy
15. Blake Fagbemi


So, I mean it's just a lot of moving parts and I could see how it would be diffiuclt for the staff to navigate, and to make specific promises to recruits, for the 2027 class. In the end, our staff does a great job pivoting when the roster takes unexpected turns. That's why we've been able to stay so consistently good despite so many unexpected roster developments.
 
#113      
I feel like we go through this every cycle.

It's fun to try and project where our roster is going, but it's also kind of impossible. I kind of have a feeling that we're a little slow this cycle because, on paper, we have a lot of guys who can return and who would eat up both play time and money if they did. This of course makes it hard to reel in a recruit that wants guaranteed play time and money:

Definitely will not be here and thus guaranteed to yield a roster spot and play time:

At this time, nobody I can definitively put in this category

Extremely unlikely, but not impossible, would likely require legal intervention:

1. Tomi Ivisic
2. Zvonimr Ivisic

Reasoning same for both. Neither has exhausted the 5-in-5 years but under the new rule will be ineligible due to age. I think this age-based restriction is primed for legal challenge. Not sure they'd want to go that route, but always a possibility. If it happened, these retentions would be expensive, and play time at the 5 position would be scarce for newcomers. Again, extremely unlikely and don' texpect it to happen, but in this day and age can we really say this is impossible?

Extremely unlikely but would not require legal challenge:

3. Andrej Stojakovic - By all accounts he was very close to declaring for the draft and jumping ship this offseason. He clearly wants to play in the NBA. If he has a good season, he is very going to move on to the next stage of his career.

Possible will still be playing college ball next year:

4. Quentin Coleman - Entirely dependent on his draft stock. If he has the season we hope he has? Likely gone. But entirely possible that he's not ready for the leap and needs another year. Can't really promise away QC's money/minutes until you see where this one is trending.

5. David Mirkovic - Again, likely entirely dependent on draft stock. I think he works himself solidly into 1st, but who knows, he could also be a full 5 year guy if NBA scouts just decides he's missing out on a couple attributes they need him to have to justify a 1st round pick.

6. Stefan Vaaks - Like the previous two, depends on where his draft stock goes as the season progresses.

7. Jake Davis - He's a senior, but only a 4th year one. 5-in-5 makes his return possible. Maybe even likely? Don't think he's getting drafted, but could see a situation where he wants to cash in on bigger money and PT for his last ride, especially if the guys above all leave making him the sole senior statemen on the team. Or maybe that's a role he would relish? If you're the staff roster planning for 2027-2028, I think you have to assume he's going to be in the mix until he tells you he's not.

Will very likely be playing college ball next year and retention is a real possibility:

8. Lucas Morillo - Don't think he's one-and-done and I imagine we're likely to want him to return. He's likely to expect a bigger role next year, and likely to get one unless the staff just doesn't like what it sees as the season progresses.

9. Lincoln Williams - Ditto.

10. Ethan Brown - Ditto, but potentially higher possibility of transfer if route to PT is not clear.

11. Zavier Zens - Ditto to the Ethan Brown comment.

12. Landon Davis - May be in this category or the one below. Kind of hard to tell at this point.

High likelihood of coming back, but no major impact on minutes or roster spend:

13. Jason Jakstys
14. Quentin McCoy
15. Blake Fagbemi


So, I mean it's just a lot of moving parts and I could see how it would be diffiuclt for the staff to navigate, and to make specific promises to recruits, for the 2027 class. In the end, our staff does a great job pivoting when the roster takes unexpected turns. That's why we've been able to stay so consistently good despite so many unexpected roster developments.
Given your breakdown, I can absolutely see why they're focusing on bigs right now. It's the one area where we absolutely know there's going to be a hole. It wouldn't be ideal is we missed on all of our 2027 high profile targets at this particular position, which is one of need.

The other item is that you can bet your rear that we lose at least two to the portal. There is absolutely no way to make everyone happy and a lot of guys choose to leave because they want instant playing time vs development, which I can totally understand.

Like you correctly said, this requires a patient wait and see approach. We'll know a ton more as the season plays out and we see who's stock is up and whose needle didn't move. Those are the guys that benefit from the NIL millions.
 
#114      
Yeah I think you're assessment is spot on regarding the big men. I don't think Pettigrew will even commit without a starting job guarantee outside of Duke.

From splicing together the infinite content on him (he has his own Youtube series):
- Illinois: Obvious homestate program which is on the rise and has been on him forever
- Arkansas: I mean it's Cal. Look at Derrick Rose, Mario Chalmers, all the great UK teams, Darius Acuff Jr., etc. Dude is an NBA factory
- Duke: He's been waiting on an offer from Scheyer for a hot minute. Something about The Brotherhood - it's like a lifelong fraternity of extremely successful athletes both professionally and financially. I see the appeal. I also think it's the only place he'd consider riding the pine a bit year 1. He'll probably keep an eye on how discontent some of the lower MPG players are there this year especially if it impacts their long term NBA stock in any way.
- Florida: Recent national champ and preseason #1. Hard not to see the appeal here also. Weak guard room and no major 2027 commits yet.
- UNC: I could be misremembering but think his dad (Titus) is from Carolina and grew up a big Tar Heel fan.

Feel like it'll end up being a 3-horse race with Illinois / Arkansas / Duke (if they offer). I think we're in a win-win situation with year 2 of QC/Vaaks combo or Pettigrew coming into one of those spots.
Your post is much more practical and likely accurate...which I hate, but I'd still like any of the insiders to weigh in and give us any nuggets of who may commit next.
 
#115      
It is amazingly great that this program has progressed to the point where missing on multiple 5-star preps elicits a collective shrug from the fanbase, because we are so confident that the staff will snag some other outstanding talent. This must be what Duke and UK fans have felt for decades.
 
#116      
Yeah I think you're assessment is spot on regarding the big men. I don't think Pettigrew will even commit without a starting job guarantee outside of Duke.

From splicing together the infinite content on him (he has his own Youtube series):
- Illinois: Obvious homestate program which is on the rise and has been on him forever
- Arkansas: I mean it's Cal. Look at Derrick Rose, Mario Chalmers, all the great UK teams, Darius Acuff Jr., etc. Dude is an NBA factory
- Duke: He's been waiting on an offer from Scheyer for a hot minute. Something about The Brotherhood - it's like a lifelong fraternity of extremely successful athletes both professionally and financially. I see the appeal. I also think it's the only place he'd consider riding the pine a bit year 1. He'll probably keep an eye on how discontent some of the lower MPG players are there this year especially if it impacts their long term NBA stock in any way.
- Florida: Recent national champ and preseason #1. Hard not to see the appeal here also. Weak guard room and no major 2027 commits yet.
- UNC: I could be misremembering but think his dad (Titus) is from Carolina and grew up a big Tar Heel fan.

Feel like it'll end up being a 3-horse race with Illinois / Arkansas / Duke (if they offer). I think we're in a win-win situation with year 2 of QC/Vaaks combo or Pettigrew coming into one of those spots.
Expect Cal to go in hard as he's going to be light on this regular class.

Scheyer has already picked up the Aussie, and any one of the other 4 guards could be back. I know I'd prefer to bring back versus committing to a young freshman.
 
#117      
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#123      
Illinois has an easy sell to Brady. Local school, were in on him early, team success, been a recent guard factory to the NBA, now have good money to spend.

Feels hard to mess this one up.
Says a lot about a kid when his favorite player is someone that’s not THE star on the team. He loves Jake like we all do
 
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