Illinois vs Duke, Saturday, September 12th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

#76      
lstewart53x3
#77      
illinoistradition
TheChief4Life said:
I still remember Ohio State one year ran the ball like 75 times and only threw it like 5 times against us at home. I am not sold on the "if their HB is really good, but their QB is bad, we should have this" line. Granted, Duke is not a comparable team to OSU.
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That was the start of the first team in NCAA history’s 6 game losing streak after winning 6 games. Slightly different than now.
 
#78      
fuddrules
Today Duke ran a heavy package frequently and used a power running game to win.

Duke RB Sheppard has fantastic balance and vision.

UAB spread Illinois out to run the ball. Opposite of how Duke ran the ball today.

Does Duke stay heavy next week or spread out the IL defense?

Sheppard would be extremely tough to bring down for any Illinois defender if they can get one on one (e.g. spread them out).

I personally hope Duke stays with the multiple TE heavy package.
 
#79      
Frumundawood
fuddrules said:
Today Duke ran a heavy package frequently and used a power running game to win.

Duke RB Sheppard has fantastic balance and vision.

UAB spread Illinois out to run the ball. Opposite of how Duke ran the ball today.

Does Duke stay heavy next week or spread out the IL defense?

Sheppard would be extremely tough to bring down for any Illinois defender if they can get one on one (e.g. spread them out).

I personally hope Duke stays with the multiple TE heavy package.
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They had a good game plan for us last year, but ran out of gas and made mistakes. I assume they’ll have a pretty good game plan again this year.
 
#80      
therealmiket86
lstewart53x3 said:
Sheppard’s a great back. Was really impressed with his game today.

But the “playoff team last year” tag on Tulane is a little deceiving. This Tulane team isn’t that Tulane team.

They came into this game at preseason #87 in SP+. Miami-Oh is #85 and lost 59-14 to Pittsburg today.
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100% not the same Tulane team. It’s a new coaching staff with a new roster.
 
#81      
OrangeBlue98
BretMyBeachHouse said:
Isn't this a requirement when you become offensive coordinator at Illinois?
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I can’t tell you how many times a conversation about Illini football among my dad and brothers has focused on the question of “Why in the hell don’t we throw to the tight end more?”

Best play setup in the game is still establish the run game, then hit the TE on a seam route off of play action. Easiest 15-25 yards in the playbook.
 
#82      
Se Il Illini
As of today I am very concerned about the run defense particularly in Big 10 play. Duke, apparently will provide an excellent test for the run defense.
 
#83      
DeonThomas
So we now welcome a 1-0 Duke team that:
* Just defeated 2025 playoff team Tulane (holding them to just 3 pts)
* Won the ACC in 2025
* Yesterday ran the ball for 260 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry
* Rushed the ball two-thirds of the time on offense, and controlled TOP at 36 min
* Went for it on 4th down four different times

And they arrive in Champaign just as we're questioning whether our new defensive scheme can stop the run, after giving up 194 rushing yards to UAB, while losing TOP 41:19. Hmmm......a dire situation?

Well, I'm confident enough to attend this one in person. I have to believe a Bielema-coached team is also smart enough to make the necessary changes to adapt and stop the run. And our moderate advantage in talent/skill will be the difference. Houser duplicates his solid game #1 performance.

30 ILLINI
23 duke

For the second week in a row, we win but fail to cover the spread. My current prognostication record: 1-0 vs the spread; 1-0 predicting the correct winner.
 
#84      
SescIllini
CaptainCrutch said:
Yesterday reminded me a lot of how I felt in 2023 watching us play Toledo. I felt like “man, we’re better than this right?” And then for like a week I tried to talk myself into us being off that day with a lot of turnover and that we’d be fine. Then Kansas took us to the woodshed.

Duke game will do a lot towards making me feel confident or pessimistic about a bowl game this year.
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I didn't feel at all like this was the Toledo game. We were inept in that game. We had the lead the whole game and too a commanding lead vs UAB. We have an unproven DL/LB playing a scheme that appears porous at the line (3 DL).
 
#85      
Fly Illini Fly!
Frumundawood said:
They had a good game plan for us last year, but ran out of gas and made mistakes. I assume they’ll have a pretty good game plan again this year.
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They brought lots of pressure. They'll do the same this year.

However, Houser had the fastest average time to throw in the country last year (2.23sec).
 
#86      
TheChief4Life
DeonThomas said:
So we now welcome a 1-0 Duke team that:
* Just defeated 2025 playoff team Tulane (holding them to just 3 pts)
* Won the ACC in 2025
* Yesterday ran the ball for 260 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry
* Rushed the ball two-thirds of the time on offense, and controlled TOP at 36 min
* Went for it on 4th down four different times

And they arrive in Champaign just as we're questioning whether our new defensive scheme can stop the run, after giving up 194 rushing yards to UAB, while losing TOP 41:19. Hmmm......a dire situation?
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I know you're going for effect here, but almost every one of your comments are taken out of context.
"2025 playoff team Tulane" is not the Tulane of this year. Even last year's playoff Tulane got smoked against the actual big boys.

"Won the ACC in 2025", while technically true, has more to do with the ACC being a joke of a conference last year (this year too, honestly). Duke wasn't even one of the best two teams in the conference last year and by sheer stupidity, luck, and happenstance they made it to the championship game and won.

"Yesterday ran the ball for 260 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry" yet only scored 17 points. At home. They were gifted 100+ yds of penalties, their passing game looked like !!!, and honestly, looked very "eh" all around outside of Sheppard.

"Rushed the ball two-thirds of the time on offense, and controlled TOP at 36 min" and again... scored 17 pts. They are not a good offense.

"Went for it on 4th down four different times" and converted 1 of them. Non-stat.

"And they arrive in Champaign just as we're questioning whether our new defensive scheme can stop the run, after giving up 194 rushing yards to UAB, while losing TOP 41:19." Which, when you break it down was an extremely inefficient 41:19. UAB controlled the TOP because we scored too quickly and too often. That is really the biggest take away from that stat on Thursday.

Do I guarantee we will win this Saturday? No. But do I think we are the better team? Absolutely. Nothing Duke has done this year (or last; not that it matters) makes me believe this is even close to a dire situation.
 
#89      
therealmiket86
DeonThomas said:
So we now welcome a 1-0 Duke team that:
* Just defeated 2025 playoff team Tulane (holding them to just 3 pts)
* Won the ACC in 2025
* Yesterday ran the ball for 260 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry
* Rushed the ball two-thirds of the time on offense, and controlled TOP at 36 min
* Went for it on 4th down four different times

And they arrive in Champaign just as we're questioning whether our new defensive scheme can stop the run, after giving up 194 rushing yards to UAB, while losing TOP 41:19. Hmmm......a dire situation?

Well, I'm confident enough to attend this one in person. I have to believe a Bielema-coached team is also smart enough to make the necessary changes to adapt and stop the run. And our moderate advantage in talent/skill will be the difference. Houser duplicates his solid game #1 performance.

30 ILLINI
23 duke

For the second week in a row, we win but fail to cover the spread. My current prognostication record: 1-0 vs the spread; 1-0 predicting the correct winner.
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Yes Tulane made the playoffs last year but this isn’t close to being the same team. The head coach is now at Florida. They lost a ton of players in the portal of graduation. They will struggle this year
 
#98      
ROCIllini
ChiefGritty said:
I was extremely annoyed by the 4th and 1 stuff too, but it's kinda hard to say we didn't control the LOS on offense when we averaged 5.8 yards a carry and allowed just 2 TFL's and no sacks.

The offense ran 43 plays and scored 35 points with no sacks, no turnovers and no penalties. That's a smooth, easy night. We used to be unable to do that against absolutely anybody.
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Offense - 28 points
 
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