Is it a low bar?
Ferentz is fired if Iowa doesn’t average 25+ PPG.
Illinois averaged 24.2 PPG last year. And that’s with nation’s leading rusher Chase Brown, a pretty consistent QB in Tommy Devito. Would you fire Lunney next year if Illinois doesn’t score over 25 PPG?
Would I fire Lunney? No. Were there complaints about his job performance last year? Yes. If it continues in years 2-6 do I think calls for a replacement? I do.
As for 25 PPG. That would put Iowa:
8th in the Big Ten (not as bad as it sounds)
10th in the Big 12 (worse than it sounds)
10th in the PAC 12 (exactly how it sounds)
10th in the SEC
9th in the ACC
So you may not call it a “low” bar, but it certainly seems to be a below average bar to me.
It would be a nice improvement over their prior year, if that’s the way you prefer to frame it.
To your points about illinois, we had the nations leading rusher by yards, but failed to convert that to TD’s. And even with Tommy’s high completion percentage, he missed some time with injury and wasn’t great (my subjective opinion) on downfield throws. We were more focused on field position and time of possession to let our defense win games as a strategy.
I guess what I’m trying highlight is:
1) you can add injuries to the list of things that could go wrong for Brian. QB1 goes down and he better hope he’s got a solid QB2.
2) leading the nation in rushing yards would be another sub optimal contract stipulation when the goal is to score more points than the other guys and you only control part of the equation.