John Groce at Illinois

Deleted member 19448 · Jan 31, 2016

HerbertFish said:
He wasn't a particularly good coach at Ohio. He hasn't been one in 4 years at Illinois. It's bizarre there is anyone left to think that would somehow change in year 5.

I think some are hoping in the 17 class. Past experience would seem to indicate that is not gonna happen. He recruiting prowess was the stuff of legend but nothing ever materialized. I have a hard time believing elite talent other than a legacy recruit like Williams is gonna sign up for this program with Groce at the helm.

Butkuser · Jan 31, 2016

HerbertFish said:
He wasn't a particularly good coach at Ohio. He hasn't been one in 4 years at Illinois. It's bizarre there is anyone left to think that would somehow change in year 5.

I don't really know what kind of coach he was at Ohio, only saw him on that one run in the NCAA, but he certainly hasn't shown a lot here. Yeah, he got that first team to the tourney, but who's to say those players weren't just feeling liberated after Weber.

He might get another year because of the AD situation, but I don't see how anyone thinks he's gonna get a great recruiting class in '17. If I'm wrong, I'll be happy to eat a whole murder of crows.

HeartofaChampion · Feb 1, 2016

Ryllini said:
My question to the staff, you obviously see the players more in practice and off time, but do you want your Illinos coaching careers in the hands of Tate and Lewis? You have some really good players on roster and healthy, basketball players, why not get your best 5 on the floor as much as possible?

I don't really question the staffs ability to develop talent, KN and Hill have turned into really nice players, Finke has impressed, Mavs body is better and has moves and a shot, AJ has made strides(largely tonight), JCL starts and is improving, but every player has a ceiling and Tate and Lewis are at theirs. These guys largely bring it up and look for perimeter pass and then get the hell out of the way. Take out the middle man and get a threat who can bring it up, make a pass, cut and find a spot to be a threat.

This is a total head-scratcher by the staff. KN, JCL, MH, MF and MM together for even just 20 mpg (and/or KN, JCL, AJ, MH and MF or MM) makes more sense than any lineup with JT or KL, who provide next to nothing to the offense and aren't great defenders, either. Play JT and KL spot minutes off the bench with AJ or MM and DJW.

illinitiger · Feb 1, 2016

HeartofaChampion said:
This is a total head-scratcher by the staff. KN, JCL, MH, MF and MM together for even just 20 mpg (and/or KN, JCL, AJ, MH and MF or MM) makes more sense than any lineup with JT or KL, who provide next to nothing to the offense and aren't great defenders, either. Play JT and KL spot minutes off the bench with AJ or MM and DJW.

I agree...JCL has improved and he'd be a shooting threat out front.

CAHALL15 · Feb 1, 2016

I'm always an optimist, but my position is changing with each loss. This team is still playing with 3 starters out, but taking a chance on Paul is being magnified. I'm still not against Groce coming back, but changes need to be made to the staff around him. Perhaps Deon in lieu of Ford? Brown over Parham or Walker?

Paul Kleevage · Feb 1, 2016

I think the big question is...How good does everyone think the team will be next year with the returning players and incoming freshmen? If the talent, and coaching, isn't there for Groce to throw up 24+ wins then we need to let him go this off-season. He won't survive another average year in 2016-2017. It's reasonable that 2017-2018 will be a "down" year after losing Hill and Nunn, and relying on several underclassman, which makes next year all that more important.

It sounds like common sense, but most coaches aren't on the hot seat with talent like Hill and Nunn leaving the roster after the following year. If you make the transition after this year the new coach will at least have a decent base of talent with Finke, Nunn, Hill, Black, and JCL, which will help with recruiting efforts with the 2017 class.

ColorMeBad · Feb 1, 2016

Paul Kleevage said:
I think the big question is...How good does everyone think the team will be next year with the returning players and incoming freshmen? If the talent, and coaching, isn't there for Groce to throw up 24+ wins then we need to let him go this off-season. He won't survive another average year in 2016-2017. It's reasonable that 2017-2018 will be a "down" year after losing Hill and Nunn, and relying on several underclassman, which makes next year all that more important.

It sounds like common sense, but most coaches aren't on the hot seat with talent like Hill and Nunn leaving the roster after the following year. If you make the transition after this year the new coach will at least have a decent base of talent with Finke, Nunn, Hill, Black, and JCL, which will help with recruiting efforts with the 2017 class.

I agree completely. Hopefully Hill likes the new coach and sticks around. Getting his degree early and transferring would not be great. Still would have some decent talent for the new coach. If we keep Groce, and that is not my preferred approach, I think he would need to replace two assistants to have a chance. As mentioned before an ex-head coach with some basketball strategy acumen is a must. If were going to have a lead recruiter as a head coach we better get a real head coach on the bench. Also as many have mentioned I think Dee Brown could buy him some good will with the fans, possibly stemming the revolt. Use this and play up the injury excuse in an attempt to get fan interest back.

Paul Kleevage · Feb 1, 2016

ColorMeBad said:
I agree completely. Hopefully Hill likes the new coach and sticks around. Getting his degree early and transferring would not be great. Still would have some decent talent for the new coach. If we keep Groce, and that is not my preferred approach, I think he would need to replace two assistants to have a chance. As mentioned before an ex-head coach with some basketball strategy acumen is a must. If were going to have a lead recruiter as a head coach we better get a real head coach on the bench. Also as many have mentioned I think Dee Brown could buy him some good will with the fans, possibly stemming the revolt. Use this and play up the injury excuse in an attempt to get fan interest back.

Dee Brown is an important "chess piece" in this scenario. Having someone with his reputation, charisma, and basketball intelligence sitting in the building, but not on staff, is a significant issue in my opinion. He needs to be on the staff. I don't think anyone could argue against it.

chief2007 · Feb 1, 2016

With Groce's record declining 4 straight years it is time with a new athletic director (once hired) to bring in his own guy.

Groce came in promising a more up tempo - push the ball up court offense.

I rarely see the team score off the fast break. His half court offense goes into long stretches where they can't score. This has happened all 4 years he has been here.

I don't know what the Illinois basketball identity is. It is not tough defense or good rebounding or fast tempo offense.

I can see not winning more games this season due to the injuries and losing Paul. Getting rid of Groce won't be due to a poor record this season but a lack of growth and not having a system he can run with the players he brought into the program.

89illinigrad · Feb 1, 2016

Paul Kleevage said:
I think the big question is...How good does everyone think the team will be next year with the returning players and incoming freshmen? If the talent, and coaching, isn't there for Groce to throw up 24+ wins then we need to let him go this off-season. He won't survive another average year in 2016-2017. It's reasonable that 2017-2018 will be a "down" year after losing Hill and Nunn, and relying on several underclassman, which makes next year all that more important.

It sounds like common sense, but most coaches aren't on the hot seat with talent like Hill and Nunn leaving the roster after the following year. If you make the transition after this year the new coach will at least have a decent base of talent with Finke, Nunn, Hill, Black, and JCL, which will help with recruiting efforts with the 2017 class.

Call me an optimist, but I believe we have the talent to put up 24+ wins next season, which is why I'm in favor of keeping Groce.

Plus, I don't think that 2017-2018 will be much of a "down" year, as we will have a lineup of TJL, JCL, Kipper or Jordan, Black and Finke. That's a pretty good team on paper, and if we somehow get Tilmon, that could be a really good team.

89illinigrad · Feb 1, 2016

My main concern with replacing Groce is that TJL may decommit, we may also lose some of our current players and we will definitely miss out on our top targets in the 2017 class.

(Note: I'm not saying that Groce will definitely land an excellent 2017 class, but I think we would have a better chance with him than a new coach.)

If that happens, the new coach will likely have to scramble to fill up the scholarships for the 2017 class with lesser players. With the drop off in talent from departures/decommits and a patched together 2017 class, we will have three more years of mediocrity, as we push back the rebuilding timeline once again.

Groce has shown that he can coach, by turning around the team he inherited and getting them to the dance his first year. Give him a chance to prove himself with a healthy squad next year and the 2017 recruiting class. If those fall apart, I will be the first one on here calling for his head.

mattcoldagelli · Feb 1, 2016

89illinigrad said:
Groce has shown that he can coach, by turning around the team he inherited and getting them to the dance his first year.

With each passing game, that's starting to look like an aberration. Could've been as simple as a bunch of talented guys incredibly relieved to not be getting the "DEE JAY [stomp] [fold arms]" treatment every minute of every game.

Klondike · Feb 1, 2016

mattcoldagelli said:
With each passing game, that's starting to look like an aberration. Could've been as simple as a bunch of talented guys incredibly relieved to not be getting the "DEE JAY [stomp] [fold arms]" treatment every minute of every game.

This gets into my main issue with Coach Groce. I think he's had some recruiting misses and some roster building issues as a result of a few factors, but I generally believe he can recruit well enough to get the job done. However, our offensive efficiency under Coach Groce has never been good.

Our eFG in his four years has been downright awful:

2013: 221
2014: 302
2015: 235
2016: 159

The highest eFG of any John Groce team was 133 in 2011 with Ohio. His offenses have been mediocre or bad, year after year.

My question for the ardent Groce supporters is this: What do you think John Groce does well as a head coach? I concede he showed the ability to put together a defensive game plan with Nnanna Egwu, but even then our offense was so putrid it never amounted to much.

I also want to say this isn't a personal thing. I really, really like John Groce. I want him to succeed. I don't get the vitriol some posters show on the topic, because I think it's reasonable to have a debate on the merits here, and certainly his record isn't above questioning.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Feb 1, 2016

89illinigrad said:
My main concern with replacing Groce is that TJL may decommit, we may also lose some of our current players and we will definitely miss out on our top targets in the 2017 class.

(Note: I'm not saying that Groce will definitely land an excellent 2017 class, but I think we would have a better chance with him than a new coach.)

If that happens, the new coach will likely have to scramble to fill up the scholarships for the 2017 class with lesser players. With the drop off in talent from departures/decommits and a patched together 2017 class, we will have three more years of mediocrity, as we push back the rebuilding timeline once again.

Groce has shown that he can coach, by turning around the team he inherited and getting them to the dance his first year. Give him a chance to prove himself with a healthy squad next year and the 2017 recruiting class. If those fall apart, I will be the first one on here calling for his head.

If you're going to make a coaching change, it's for the long term (hopefully) and shouldn't be driven by the risk of losing 1 player or impacting 1 recruiting class. If you get the right guy, he should be able to recover quickly enough. If not, then you probably didn't get the right guy.

EJ33 · Feb 1, 2016

Klondike said:
My question for the ardent Groce supporters is this: What do you think John Groce does well as a head coach?

Not an ardent Groce supporter anymore, but I'll answer anyway.

I think he's a good man and he represents the University well.

On the other hand, his record shows that his coaching and roster-building skills are average at best. That's why I think we need to fire him unless he can show some improvement in the last nine games.

With respect to the 2017 class, I've seen this movie before. Great hopes, whispers from the staff that we're going to get some 4 or 5 star guys, and then we lose. Tilmon is not coming here and Williams is probably 50/50. Are we really so desperate that we'd keep a coach with a recruiting class of a few Top 100 guys and a Top 50 guy (all of which are 2s or 3s)? That's the most likely scenario for 2017.

Klondike · Feb 1, 2016

EJ33 said:
I think he's a good man and he represents the University well.

I completely agree with this, I just see it as a bonus that is great if the actual coaching and program building is up to par.

Second and Chalmers · Feb 1, 2016

89illinigrad said:
My main concern with replacing Groce is that...we will definitely miss out on our top targets in the 2017 class.

The idea that it takes multiple years to recruit top talent is strongly contradicted by the available evidence, FWIW.

BWBW · Feb 1, 2016

Maybe we should get a coaching staff that elite members of the 2017 class will want to play for????

mattcoldagelli · Feb 1, 2016

Klondike said:
My question for the ardent Groce supporters is this: What do you think John Groce does well as a head coach? I concede he showed the ability to put together a defensive game plan with Nnanna Egwu, but even then our offense was so putrid it never amounted to much.

I also want to say this isn't a personal thing. I really, really like John Groce. I want him to succeed. I don't get the vitriol some posters show on the topic, because I think it's reasonable to have a debate on the merits here, and certainly his record isn't above questioning.

I think most people are on the same page. Really want him to succeed, but at this point, that can really only be categorized as almost unfounded hope. He needs to be a plus recruiter to win here, IMO, and he hasn't been that. He's pretty clearly not going to scheme his way to many victories and we're probably not going to be turning under-the-radar recruits into all-conference players.

I can't fault him for taking the path he did: chase the highest-ceiling guys and rely on transfers as your safety net (as opposed to lower-rated HS recruits). He tried to turn this thing around as fast as he could. And if I'm being honest, he probably does if the Snider commit holds. I think that would've probably cleared a path to an overall higher level of talent. But it didn't, and if our athletic department wasn't a national laughingstock, he'd probably be getting fired this March.

But I don't see any way that's feasible. A new AD comes in, sees like 5 games, and axes the one major coach that hasn't been a total public relations nightmare for the university? Seems unlikely.

89illinigrad · Feb 1, 2016

WesterveltVictoryCigar said:
If you're going to make a coaching change, it's for the long term (hopefully) and shouldn't be driven by the risk of losing 1 player or impacting 1 recruiting class. If you get the right guy, he should be able to recover quickly enough. If not, then you probably didn't get the right guy.

Its not just getting the right guy, its also will this fanbase give that guy a chance?

If we go with a new coach, we will have some turnover and take a step back on the recruiting front. Will this fanbase give a new coach time to establish a recruiting pipeline or will they quickly turn on the guy at the first sign of adversity?

I fully expected this season to be a tourney year with a decent seed, but I feel the injuries completely derailed it. That is why I'm willing to give Groce a pass this year.

As others have said before, if it weren't for the injuries, I don't think we would be having this conversation.

EJ33 · Feb 1, 2016

Pinning your hopes on the 2017 class is ridiculous. The guys we are most likely to get are not in the Top 50 and are all wings. The class is not going to be as great as you think it will be and TILMON IS NOT COMING HERE.

Keep in mind that all of the positive information about Tilmon is leaking from the staff - the same staff that is trying to keep their jobs.

89illinigrad · Feb 1, 2016

Second and Chalmers said:
The idea that it takes multiple years to recruit top talent is strongly contradicted by the available evidence, FWIW.

While that may be true, are you expecting another mid-major coach to come in here and immediately sign a solid 2017 class? Because, they will likely have no connections to any of those players (how many mid-major schools are in on Tilmon, Williams, et al?).

Ransom Stoddard · Feb 1, 2016

Paul Kleevage said:
I think the big question is...How good does everyone think the team will be next year with the returning players and incoming freshmen? If the talent, and coaching, isn't there for Groce to throw up 24+ wins then we need to let him go this off-season. He won't survive another average year in 2016-2017. It's reasonable that 2017-2018 will be a "down" year after losing Hill and Nunn, and relying on several underclassman, which makes next year all that more important.

It sounds like common sense, but most coaches aren't on the hot seat with talent like Hill and Nunn leaving the roster after the following year. If you make the transition after this year the new coach will at least have a decent base of talent with Finke, Nunn, Hill, Black, and JCL, which will help with recruiting efforts with the 2017 class.

I'm more optimistic about the sophomore jump of JCL and Jordan than the return of Abrams and Black (although Black's contributions will be critical). Abrams, while steady, isn't an all-conference level player and will likely not be at his peak following 2 surgeries and 2 years out. Black's a big guy with bad knees who has a tendency for reckless defense and fouls. Unless he gets his game under control his contribution is going to be diminished.

I think we've got a very solid corps of 2's, 3's, and 4's for next year. Same as this year, but look at where that got us. We need a legit PG who can start in the B1G and a legit center, both who can give 30+ minutes. I don't think we're going to have that next year, even with TA and LB back.

mattcoldagelli · Feb 1, 2016

89illinigrad said:
Its not just getting the right guy, its also will this fanbase give that guy a chance?

If we go with a new coach, we will have some turnover and take a step back on the recruiting front. Will this fanbase give a new coach time to establish a recruiting pipeline or will they quickly turn on the guy at the first sign of adversity?

I fully expected this season to be a tourney year with a decent seed, but I feel the injuries completely derailed it. That is why I'm willing to give Groce a pass this year.

As others have said before, if it weren't for the injuries, I don't think we would be having this conversation.

This is a tired and wrong narrative. Our fans are (or were) a feature, not a bug, when it comes to our basketball program. If we were the hyper-rabid equivalent of SEC football teams forcing coaches out the door, Weber's stay would've been shorter. Hell, Lou Henson's would have, too. Instead we show up in huge numbers all across the country, even when the team is average.

If anything, the pressing question isn't "Will our crazy passionate fans give this guy a chance?" It's "Do we even still have passionate fans?" Have you been to the last two United Center games? Those were shocking to me. Our bball program is on the receiving end of the highest level of fan apathy I have seen in my life as an Illinois fan, partly deserved (we're bad! and also had the highest position to fall from) and partly not (Bill Cubit, ladies and gentlemen!). But no matter what, I think the likelihood of the fanbase pitchforking whoever the next might be is close to zero. People are just opting out.

Ransom Stoddard · Feb 1, 2016

mattcoldagelli said:
This is a tired and wrong narrative. Our fans are (or were) a feature, not a bug, when it comes to our basketball program. If we were the hyper-rabid equivalent of SEC football teams forcing coaches out the door, Weber's stay would've been shorter. Hell, Lou Henson's would have, too. Instead we show up in huge numbers all across the country, even when the team is average.

If anything, the pressing question isn't "Will our crazy passionate fans give this guy a chance?" It's "Do we even still have passionate fans?" Have you been to the last two United Center games? Those were shocking to me. Our bball program is on the receiving end of the highest level of fan apathy I have seen in my life as an Illinois fan, partly deserved (we're bad! and also had the highest position to fall from) and partly not (Bill Cubit, ladies and gentlemen!). But no matter what, I think the likelihood of the fanbase pitchforking whoever the next might be is close to zero. People are just opting out.

This, 100%. Fans don't push coaches out. Donors push the AD to push the coach out. Unless the AD is Ron Guenther.

John Groce at Illinois

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