I agree. Many fans' expectations involve Abrams, Thorne, and Black all playing better than they ever have before. There's no reason this couldn't have been true with Black, but Abrams is coming off injuries and inactivity, and Thorne is making a transition into a tougher league. Realistically, I'd expect Abrams to be a step slower than he was during his last season, and I'd expect to see Thorne's productivity slip from his time at Charlotte due to matching up against bigger and stronger inside players than he saw in C-USA.
It's probably true that IF we had all three players healthy, and IF they all had the best year of their career, we'd be a likely tournament team. It's also true, though, that IF I were lying on a Caribbean beach with my head in Halle Berry's lap, and IF she were gently rubbing my temples, I'd be asleep and not posting from my desk in my office. And yet, here I am.
I disagree about the expectations for those three. Abrams averaged double figures for two seasons, played defense and didn't turn the ball over much plus he has great leadership skills. He could average fewer points and still be a huge upgrade.
Thorne was averaging 14 and 8 when he was hurt. He was doing it against good teams, too. The game he got hurt, he had 10 and 7 at the half against the number four team in the country at the time. If he gives us 10 and 7 for whole games, we would be much better in the middle. Thorne also allows us to play inside out. He is a threat in the post. Defenses have to respect his post moves. It opens up shooters like Hill, Nunn, and JCL on the wings.
Black was the best player on the team during the summer according to the coaches. If he just rebounds and plays defense, we are much better.
What some fans miss is that it is not just that we don't have those players, it is that it affects the depth so much. Yes, Finke has stepped up and is giving us more than we could have expected to this point. He still struggles with rebounding and defense as he strives to get stronger. Hill has had to move back to the four. JCL has been up and down but shows great potential. It is what is behind them now that hurts.
If we have Thorne, Abrams, and Black, the depth becomes a strength instead of a weakness. We don't have to play Austin. Williams could have redshirted. Morgan just plays spot minutes. Jordan develops in practice and plays when he is ready.
Then you have a rotation of Hill, Nunn, Thorne, Abrams, Black, Finke, JCL, and Tate. Tate is not as exposed since he would only play 5-10 minutes a game. Finke and JCL would be offensive threats off the bench. Our rebounding would be infinitely better as would our defense. You don't automatically have to use Morgan if it is a bad match up. He can play minutes against teams that he has a chance to be successful against. Right now, he has to play. No choice no matter the opponent.
It is not about overrating the three players. It is about getting solid contributions from them which then lengthens our bench. Scoring droughts become fewer since we have real BT ready players coming off the bench. Hill does not have to lead the team in every category which is wearing him down a bit right now, imo. Just an overall better team.