John Groce at Illinois

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#751      
PaytonHighstep
ole 99 said:
Certainly not directly, but perception is reality. With all the fiscal problems of the State and the university system, I can't see the administration being keen on making headlines for spending $3-$4mm on a new coach (plus a buyout).
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Well, they (politicians) keep spending the coin and voters keep electing them... that mess won't get fixed in many of our lifetimes, so why hamstring a revenue generating sport with that mess as well?

Make decisions with basketball and football leaders based on the premise they will pay for themselves with successful/winning teams. Don't go on the cheap with these hires. Just my opinion on it.
 
#752      
illinoisfan11
I went back to look for the poster that provided Groce's conference records at Ohio (was barely above .500) and Illinois (below .500). To me, this speaks volumes about the quality of coach that he is. FWIW, I really like him as a guy. I've met him multiple times, as I know many of you all have as well, and he couldn't be nicer. And there's no question that he's got a TON of passion for the program. However, that only goes so far.

IMO, a coach's record in conference play is one of, if not the single, best ways to judge their ability as a coach. That's because, I feel, winning conference games is significantly tougher than winning non-conference games. Your conference opponents know your offensive and defensive schemes as well as anyone in the country. There are two ways a great coach can overcome that. One is by having the ability to recruit superior talent. Clearly, that hasn't happened here. The second is having comparable talent but being able to make in-game adjustments to out-execute your opponent. I have seen ZERO examples of this in JG's 4 years. If you can't get better players and you can't create effective game plans and/or make necessary adjustments, you're not going to win.

For me, four years is a big enough sample size to know that JG is in over his head here. I think he'd make a fantastic lead recruiter for a team but isn't qualified to be a head coach in the Big Ten.
 
#753      
Butkuser
I'm not trying to pile on here, but the statement that keeps made us excited was that Groce is a great recruiter, and the evidence is that he was once recruiter of the year.

But that was with OSU, a team that is in good to great shape, with a good to great coach. Matta has a eye for talent, and he was probably the one who told Groce who to go and get. So Groce only had to be positive and enthusiastic about a program recruits could see was worth going to.

Lest we forget, our 2005 team helped Weber win Coach of The Year. Would any of you say he has sustained that level of coaching ability? He's proven to be solid, not great. I say the same about Groce as a recruiter so far.
 
#754      
coryfor3
Klondike said:
So we shouldn't have fired Weber because it took us out of the running for Jabari Parker, right?
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Actually yes UNLESS you are sure that there is a better alternative. If you can fire a Weber and hire, for example, a Sean Miller, then I don't worry about recruiting because the new guy will be fine and doesn't need to establish himself or lay extensive groundwork to get "in" on a recruit. He's already there with his own established pool of recruits or can easily get his foot in the door with recruits he doesn't already know.

The problem is where there isn't a clear better alternative. Then you get another mid-major guy who doesn't bring his own established recruiting pool (unless you want mid-major players that he's been recruiting) with no recognition starting from the beginning and trying to get his foot in the door with high major recruits. That's a big uphill battle.

If you can bring in a dynamic hire, I'm interested. If we are looking at another mid-major coach, no thanks.
 
#755      
Paul Kleevage
There is a tipping point where your on-court performance negatively impacts your recruiting...regardless of how good of a recruiter the coach may be. Groce has one more shot at selling kids on early playing time and the chance to build something from the ground up. If his on-court performance prevents that message from resonating and influencing then the program is better off finding a replacement. Have we hit that point yet? I think the last two weeks have certainly made it close.

If it's true that guys like Williams are waiting to see what happens to Groce before seriously considering Illinois then it seems we are right at that tipping point. He needs to get this squad to buy back in and create some momentum toward the end of the BIG season to prevent recruits from questioning his job security.
 
#756      
coryfor3
DeadIShooter said:
Kind of. So I assume you take it that we have a lot of sway over the guys we're still chasing?

A significant part of recruiting doesn't get thrown out the window with the coach as long as you maintain interest. We're still selling the same school, conference, arena, and roster. The kids are definitely buying in on the coach too, but that doesn't always take years of ongoing relationships.
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Recruits pick the coach and what the coach can do for them for the most part. It isn't so much the school. Lots of schools have classes and quads and if they are looking for an education, they will get a fine one. The coaches make the difference. You think Mississippi State has suddenly become a great school with amazing facilities or do you think they hired Ben Howland? How about Alabama? Why has their recruiting picked up? Did their school get better or did they hire Avery Johnson? Recruits want the chance to chase championships, get on TV, have a shot at the NBA, etc.
 
#757      
JoseyWales83
coryfor3 said:
Actually yes UNLESS you are sure that there is a better alternative. If you can fire a Weber and hire, for example, a Sean Miller, then I don't worry about recruiting because the new guy will be fine and doesn't need to establish himself or lay extensive groundwork to get "in" on a recruit. He's already there with his own established pool of recruits or can easily get his foot in the door with recruits he doesn't already know.

The problem is where there isn't a clear better alternative. Then you get another mid-major guy who doesn't bring his own established recruiting pool (unless you want mid-major players that he's been recruiting) with no recognition starting from the beginning and trying to get his foot in the door with high major recruits. That's a big uphill battle.

If you can bring in a dynamic hire, I'm interested. If we are looking at another mid-major coach, no thanks.
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Agreed with the bold part, if we going to bring in a mid-major coach then might as well keep Groce as that will help our chances with Tilmon, Goodwin and Williams.
 
#758      
sacraig
I've been a Groce apologist/believer for a while but even my faith has been shaken of late. It's one thing to be beset repeatedly by injuries, and I could even overlook the fact that one of the main problems is that we have no depth at C or PG due to his early recruiting misses because It seems like he may have adjusted his strategy somewhat. However, what I can't get is how unprepared the team looked last night (and in general lately). Sure, a dynamic point guard would help the offense flow dramatically better, but even without one it shouldn't look like we simply don't have an offense to run like it did last night.

I am rapidly approaching the "Fire Groce" bandwagon on account of the fact that the 2017 class could be make-or-break for us, and if we were to start with a new coach "now", it gives him time to build his own relationships with those 2017 guys and maybe still salvage the class.
 
#759      
CIIF
coryfor3 said:
These coach discussions are unreal sometimes.
Calipari is never coming here for even 10 million a year.
Gregg Marshall is not coming here.
Archie Miller is not coming here.
I don't believe there is a current head coach in the NCAA that would be a notable step up from Groce. Might as well opt for continuity and keep Groce if firing him means you go hire another mediocre mid-major option.
This job lost its shine when Guenther went out and made the "safe" choice of Weber because he wanted someone who would never leave. Guenther should have rode the momentum Self built, not been so personally hurt by Self leaving and picked a more dynamic coach.
If Groce goes, we would are left with another uninspiring mid-major choice or trying to find an Chicago guy to try to prop up recruiting or make a choice to try to find a current Assistant that can do the job.
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Negativeness like this among our complacent fan base is why a guy like Weber ever made it here so long. My motto is "MAKE ILLINOIS ATHLETICS GREAT AGAIN!"
 
#760      
CIIF
Rusty Shackleford said:
You wouldn't get Cal.

But if you shelled out the $$$$'s Gregg Marshall would leave Wichita State or maybe get an assistant from an NBA staff.

Money talks and bull!!!! walks boys. For the right amount of money, you can get anyone to come here. Sadly the BOT are a bunch of cheapskates.

Just not Cal, he ain't leaving the green green grass of Kentucky.
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Perhaps I exaggerated a bit. We do agree though. The BOT needs to realize how much more money the DIA would take in with 30+ wins every year!
 
#762      
illinitrav
Gregg Marshall is not leaving Wichita State.

In summary:
1.Gregg Marshall has a top 10 paying salary as it stands, at over 3 million per season. This is double what John Groce makes.

2. The Koch Brothers are insanely rich and huge supporters of Wichita State. They are the reason that a mid-major school with no football program can keep a coach like Gregg Marshall around. If Illinois offered 5 million, they would counter with 6, and so on.

If you want a pipe dream, stick with Archie Miller. There's at least a 1% chance he would come to Illinois.
 
#763      
Deleted member 586966
coryfor3 said:
Recruits pick the coach and what the coach can do for them for the most part. It isn't so much the school. Lots of schools have classes and quads and if they are looking for an education, they will get a fine one. The coaches make the difference. You think Mississippi State has suddenly become a great school with amazing facilities or do you think they hired Ben Howland? How about Alabama? Why has their recruiting picked up? Did their school get better or did they hire Avery Johnson? Recruits want the chance to chase championships, get on TV, have a shot at the NBA, etc.
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And yet the difference between who Groce is capable of recruiting at Illinois and Ohio is night and day. Must also be why Malcolm Hill followed Bruce to K-state.
 
#764      
zpfled
Klondike said:
Its been since September of 2014 that coach Groce has landed a commitment from a player that wasn't an unranked 3-star. The trendline is not good.

Empty classes like 2016 aren't great, either. Were you calling 2008 empty at the time? Because that class was Dominique Keller and Stan Simpson. Probably not much different impact-wise than one unranked three star in 2016.
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Ha, I forgot about Simpson.

2016 is not necessarily over yet, although it's hard to muster optimism that someone like Froling might still come on board. Big Mike is definitely not coming back now, so we have another scholarship.

Lucas and Kipper and a TBD big would be a far cry from an empty class. And I'm plenty excited about unranked 3-stars who are tearing it up in high school like TJL and Javon Pickett.

In 2006, 08, 10, and 12...we didn't have any 4-year players, did we? That's just absolutely brutal. You can't win consistently in that scenario, unless you are bringing in superstar freshmen.
 
#765      
Foggy Notion
ole 99 said:
Certainly not directly, but perception is reality. With all the fiscal problems of the State and the university system, I can't see the administration being keen on making headlines for spending $3-$4mm on a new coach (plus a buyout).
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If I remember correctly, that's in the ballpark of what we were offering to Smart and Stevens a few years ago, in addition to buying out Weber.
 
#766      
CIIF
illinitrav said:
Gregg Marshall is not leaving Wichita State.

In summary:
1.Gregg Marshall has a top 10 paying salary as it stands, at over 3 million per season. This is double what John Groce makes.
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This is precisely the problem. We are not ever, eeeeeever, going to have a great coach when we won't pay for one.
 
#767      
UrbanaIsTheShiz
To me, if we are going another direction, Archie Miller is my first thought, though I think Dayton reupped for several years last spring so the cost and buyout might be atrocious. Also the Butler coach Holtmann. Maybe Danny Manning, Capel (yuck) and coaches at places like Boise St, N MEx, Davidson
 
#769      
CIIF
I would be all in for the Calipari, K, or Self coaching trees.
 
#771      
Illi0105
UrbanaIsTheShiz said:
To me, if we are going another direction, Archie Miller is my first thought, though I think Dayton reupped for several years last spring so the cost and buyout might be atrocious. Also the Butler coach Holtmann. Maybe Danny Manning, Capel (yuck) and coaches at places like Boise St, N MEx, Davidson
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I would think that if you are going to replace Groce, you wouldn't do it with someone from his coaching tree...
 
#772      
mattcoldagelli
sacraig said:
the 2017 class could be make-or-break for us.
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Make-or-break?

Guys, it is broken. The program is firmly entrenched in the lowest tier of the conference and there's a chance some of our players will go their entire careers without playing a tournament game.

It's rebuilding time again. Maybe you want John Groce to be the guy that gives it a shot, but let's be honest about what's needed. Fortunately it's always 1-2 recruiting classes away in basketball.
 
#773      
Sleepy Floyd
UrbanaIsTheShiz said:
To me, if we are going another direction, Archie Miller is my first thought, though I think Dayton reupped for several years last spring so the cost and buyout might be atrocious. Also the Butler coach Holtmann. Maybe Danny Manning, Capel (yuck) and coaches at places like Boise St, N MEx, Davidson
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Archie miller would be nice. Belters coach is entering his first full season as coach N Mexico's coach is an old guy who hasn't done much after the departure of Alford. Danny Manning doesn't have the arrow pointing up at wake. Capel mah be next and line at duke. I don't know about the Boise head coach. Davison coach has been their forever and is really old so I doubt he we would to switch jobs.
 
#774      
sacraig
mattcoldagelli said:
Make-or-break?

Guys, it is broken. The program is firmly entrenched in the lowest tier of the conference and there's a chance some of our players will go their entire careers without playing a tournament game.

It's rebuilding time again. Maybe you want John Groce to be the guy that gives it a shot, but let's be honest about what's needed. Fortunately it's always 1-2 recruiting classes away in basketball.
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I understand that. I mean make-or-break in terms of getting the kind of guys that can help lift us out of the doldrums. If we get a good haul from that class that seems eminently "gettable", then our rise back to relevance may only take a year or two. If we strike out there, we may be stuck with a 4 or 5 year rebuild regardless of who is at the helm. That is what I meant.
 
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