John Groce at Illinois

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#1,426      
EJ33
Obelix said:
I think "opinions about his coaching ability" is very subjective but the rest are valid points.
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If we can't use subjective evidence then he should be fired today. The most subjective piece of evidence in this debate is the view that he's a good coach who needs more time. There is very little factual evidence supporting the assertion that he is an excellent coach.

Most people who work for a living are subject to opinions about their ability when they are hired, fired, promoted, or demoted.

Another thought - have we ever fired a football or basketball coach too soon? I think we've always been a year or two late. Time will tell if that's the case here.
 
#1,427      
Obelix
EJ33 said:
If we can't use subjective evidence then he should be fired today. The most subjective piece of evidence in this debate is the view that he's a good coach who needs more time. There is very little factual evidence supporting the assertion that he is an excellent coach.

Most people who work for a living are subject to opinions about their ability when they are hired, fired, promoted, or demoted.

Another thought - have we ever fired a football or basketball coach too soon? I think we've always been a year or two late. Time will tell if that's the case here.
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I think you are reaching with this argument. While there is a little evidence that he is an excellent coach, you certainly not going to fire a coach because of lack of "excellence."
 
#1,429      
Newman
HerbertFish said:
Yeah I could think of at least 25 potential options who are better coaches than John Groce. My list ends at the top guy though because he's incredibly gettable: Bryce Drew. Drew was 10 times the coach at a mid-major compare to John Groce record at Ohio, and he'd be a better coach here too.
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I'm curious to see your other suggestions. I like Bryce Drew but I think people are way too infatuated with him. He's doing pretty well at Valpo, but he hasn't won a tourney game and has absolutely no high major recruiting experience. Groce has a better recruiting resume and actually won a couple of tourney games at Ohio. What makes Bryce Drew a better hire?
 
#1,431      
Newman
mattcoldagelli said:
All indications are that he's better at coaching college basketball.
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Such as?

I'm genuinely curious, not.trying to be confrontational. If our goal is to improve recruiting and have post season success, what would gain by adding a coach that doesn't have experience in any of those areas? I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a good head coach at the high major level, but I don't think it's even close to being guaranteed.
 
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#1,432      
Tevo
Newman said:
How do you adjust evidence for injuries? Wouldn't that just be opinion instead of evidence?
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The injuries certainly make it tricky to evaluate the team and Groce's coaching job, but there should still be things to look at. Does the team play with disclipline (assuming discipline, vs. freewheeling freedom, is a trait Groce desires)? Do they give consistently excellent effort? Do they make better decisions at the end of the season than they were at the beginning? Do they execute game plans, and demonstrate knowledge of the scouting reports? Are the individual players' skills showing development? Has the coaching staff "figured out" things about the team and how to make them most effective: substitution patterns, combinations of players, situational play calling, defensive assignments, etc.?

Still, all of these things have subjective elements to them, but I think you can still create a report card that helps you understand if the coach is tending to make his team and players better. Being undermanned and relying on backups and freshmen too much of the time will often result in losses when you're playing Big Ten caliber starters, but even those backups and freshman can show progress and can demonstrate that they are being effectively coached.
 
#1,433      
mattcoldagelli
Newman said:
Such as?

I'm genuinely curious, not.trying to be confrontational. If our goal is to improve recruiting and have post season success, what would gain by adding a coach that doesn't have experience in any of those areas? I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a good head coach at the high major level, but I don't think it's even close to being guaranteed.
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He's won over 70% of his games as a head coach?

I think you're oversimplifying things a bit, unless you're saying had they scored 4 more points against Maryland in the tourney last year your concerns would have disappeared.
 
#1,434      
EJ33
Obelix said:
I think you are reaching with this argument. While there is a little evidence that he is an excellent coach, you certainly not going to fire a coach because of lack of "excellence."
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OK, I'll revise. Where's the evidence that he is a good Big Ten coach? Let's just set the standard as a good Big Ten coach could have a winning record in the Big Ten. An excellent Big Ten coach could finish in the top 4. He's done neither in four seasons. So, the only way you keep him is making excuses and subjective arguments that he is a good coach.

Just trying to point out that all the objective evidence points to Groce not being a good Big Ten coach. The people who want to keep him are basing that view on an opinion that he is good and things will get better.
 
#1,435      
Newman
mattcoldagelli said:
He's won over 70% of his games as a head coach?

I think you're oversimplifying things a bit, unless you're saying had they scored 4 more points against Maryland in the tourney last year your concerns would have disappeared.
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Bryce Drew taking over his dad's program is a bit different than Groce taking over at Ohio so I don't think it's as fair to compare their records, even though they're not that different. I'm not saying that Bryce Drew would not be a better coach than Groce, just that Groce's resume was similar, if not better than Drew's current resume. Groce had recruiting experience that made him more of an attractive candidate, in addition to his sweet 16 hype.
 
#1,436      
Poe's Law
mattcoldagelli said:
He's won over 70% of his games as a head coach?

I think you're oversimplifying things a bit, unless you're saying had they scored 4 more points against Maryland in the tourney last year your concerns would have disappeared.
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I'm with newman. I'm not certain that Drew can translate his 70% winning percentage to Illinois. Lot of built in advantages to taking over for his old man and having the single most memorable play in the schools history.

I think the next AD is going to need somebody who's going to be rub elbows with potential donors. From what I hear Bryce usually sends his dad, which isn't going to fly.
 
#1,437      
Newman
EJ33 said:
OK, I'll revise. Where's the evidence that he is a good Big Ten coach? Let's just set the standard as a good Big Ten coach could have a winning record in the Big Ten. An excellent Big Ten coach could finish in the top 4. He's done neither in four seasons. So, the only way you keep him is making excuses and subjective arguments that he is a good coach.

Just trying to point out that all the objective evidence points to Groce not being a good Big Ten coach. The people who want to keep him are basing that view on an opinion that he is good and things will get better.
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So "objectively" John Beilein wasn't a good coach in his first 4 years at Michigan or West Virginia :)
 
#1,438      
EJ33
Newman said:
So "objectively" John Beilein wasn't a good coach in his first 4 years at Michigan or West Virginia :)
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Beilein made went to the Elite Eight in year 2 at WV and the Sweet Sixteen in year 3.

At Michigan he finished 500% 2/4 yrs and made the NCAA twice. In year 4 he lost to Duke by 2 in the 2nd round.

I think there was objective evidence that he was good. Can Groce top that?

He also, BTW, inherited a train wreck and a depleted roster.

Thanks for making my point :)
 
#1,439      
coltjames03
EJ33 said:
There are several pieces of evidence one could look at, including:

- his record

- nerdstats about his teams

- his ability to recruit / build a roster

- opinions about his coaching ability
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I can agree with most except build a roster. This roster was absolutely garbage when he got here. It was so unbalanced and made zero sense. Groce has turned that part around for the most part and I think it will get much better. As far as the PG goes I don't believe people really understand how good Lucas is going to be. Most are looking at his ranking and leaving it at that. The roster has improved and at least makes a lot more sense than it did before he got here.
 
#1,440      
KansasIllinifan
coltjames03 said:
I can agree with most except build a roster. This roster was absolutely garbage when he got here. It was so unbalanced and made zero sense. Groce has turned that part around for the most part and I think it will get much better. As far as the PG goes I don't believe people really understand how good Lucas is going to be. Most are looking at his ranking and leaving it at that. The roster has improved and at least makes a lot more sense than it did before he got here.
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So how good is Lucas going to be?What are his strong points?Is he an above average shooter,passer,ball handler?Is he quick enough to stay in front of the very quick pg's that seem to go around us with such ease in almost every game we play?I haven't seen him play and was just wondering if you have.
 
#1,441      
roger murdock
coltjames03 said:
I can agree with most except build a roster. This roster was absolutely garbage when he got here. It was so unbalanced and made zero sense. Groce has turned that part around... The roster has improved...
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We had DJ, BP3, Bertrand, Griffey, Shaw, Henry, in addition to Tracy and Egwu. Looks like a decent group of shooting guards, bigs, a point, and a defensive stopper in the middle. And our current roster is improved how?
 
#1,442      
Newman
EJ33 said:
Beilein made went to the Elite Eight in year 2 at WV and the Sweet Sixteen in year 3.

At Michigan he finished 500% 2/4 yrs and made the NCAA twice. In year 4 he lost to Duke by 2 in the 2nd round.

I think there was objective evidence that he was good. Can Groce top that?

He also, BTW, inherited a train wreck and a depleted roster.

Thanks for making my point :)
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I was going by your definition of a coach not being good unless they had a winning record in conference play. I know he inherited a train wreck, but those are subjectIbe interpretations. My main point is that it's almost all subjective since there are so many variables.
 
#1,443      
mattcoldagelli
Newman said:
Bryce Drew taking over his dad's program is a bit different than Groce taking over at Ohio so I don't think it's as fair to compare their records, even though they're not that different. I'm not saying that Bryce Drew would not be a better coach than Groce, just that Groce's resume was similar, if not better than Drew's current resume. Groce had recruiting experience that made him more of an attractive candidate, in addition to his sweet 16 hype.
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[shrugs]

Nothing's a sure thing. And I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that I think Bryce Drew would look at us and say "I'll wait."

We're gonna dock him points because he took over from his dad and is one of the best players in the school's history? On the "Dee for Head Coach by 2024" message board?
 
#1,444      
zpfled
roger murdock said:
We had DJ, BP3, Bertrand, Griffey, Shaw, Henry, in addition to Tracy and Egwu. Looks like a decent group of shooting guards, bigs, a point, and a defensive stopper in the middle. And our current roster is improved how?
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Shaw, Henry, and Griffey had accomplished pretty much nothing until Groce came here. Abrams was not a very effective PG.

We had talent on the wings, a good defensive center, and no offense from our bigs.
 
#1,445      
Poe's Law
mattcoldagelli said:
[shrugs]

Nothing's a sure thing. And I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that I think Bryce Drew would look at us and say "I'll wait."

We're gonna dock him points because he took over from his dad and is one of the best players in the school's history? On the "Dee for Head Coach by 2024" message board?
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That's how it works. You get bonus points for being one of the best players from a particular school while you're at that school. The train of thought is consistent at least.

I for one don't like the idea of hiring Dee unless he proves himself elsewhere. It would break my heart to have to fire Dee Brown as coach. It would be one of my worst days as a sports fan.
 
#1,446      
Newman
mattcoldagelli said:
[shrugs]

Nothing's a sure thing. And I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that I think Bryce Drew would look at us and say "I'll wait."

We're gonna dock him points because he took over from his dad and is one of the best players in the school's history? On the "Dee for Head Coach by 2024" message board?
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I'm docking him points because I'm not impressed yet by what he's accomplished at Valpo. A 70% winning record in the Horizon League is not enough to say that he's a better candidate, especially since he took over one of the best programs in the horizon league.

You don't fire a coach after a rather incomplete evaluation if you think your best candidate is a guy that doesn't have much recruiting experience or post season success. I think he would be a good candidate to look at it if the AD got rid of Groce, but I wouldn't be that optimistic about our next few years if he was our number one candidate.
 
#1,447      
Sal Iacuzzo
Incomplete evaluation? How many years do we need to give Groce, 10? The reality is in 8 years of being a head coach he is under .500 in conference play.
 
#1,449      
IllinoisFan733
Sal Iacuzzo said:
Incomplete evaluation? How many years do we need to give Groce, 10? The reality is in 8 years of being a head coach he is under .500 in conference play.
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The season isn't over. There are still 8 conference games left, plus the B10 Tournament. Between 25%-33% of the season. I don't think it's fair to include this year until it's over.

They need to win games against Northwestern Minnesota, Rutgers, and Penn State. That would be 7 B10 wins.

Wisconsin and Indiana are beatable, especially if Thorne is back to battle against Thomas Bryant.

I want them to play hard and see defensive effort against Iowa and Maryland. Not expecting victories, but want to see them battle.

GO :illinois:.
 
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