Looking back on recent Illini Basketball history

#26      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Obelix said:
It is a true statement but it is a little deceptive in that it implies that our peak during those seasons is what those teams really were. Every team will have peaks and valleys during a season, and they are neither as good as those peaks nor as bad as those valleys. At the end, they are what they are.
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I'd say it more as floors and ceilings. Teams have a ceiling, the most they could possibly get out of the talent they have. The lack of big-time recruiting has significantly lowered our ceiling, but it is rare for a major conference team to have a ceiling that's lower than sneaking in the tournament. It's similar in football, where except for certain wacko roster situations (2017 Illinois being one) the ceiling for any Power Five team is at least a backdoor 6-6.

It's my view that coaches, or really PROGRAMS, with all the human capital and infrastructure that implies, routinely tend to fall at a given point relative to their ceiling. All five John Groce teams were about the same distance worse than they should have or could have been (save the first one, arguably, although that team was both a Top 10 team in the country and then 2-7 in conference). Bo Ryan's teams were 9 seeds when they had mediocre talent, and became national title contenders with very good talent, same idea.

If you can develop a capital-P program where you maximize what you have, the natural baseline level of talent any major conference team is going to have is going to keep your head above water in almost all years. And then you have the opportunity to land big time players and reach higher than that. But if your program is such that you don't have the ability to maximize what you have, it's not that you MUST get elite talent to win, it's worse than that, even elite talent can't save you. See Lorenzo Romar and Johnny Jones and Paul Hewitt.
 
#27      

dbeverly26

dbeverly26
dbeverly26
Second and Chalmers said:
I mean, let's be honest here, the fact that everyone knows exactly what I mean by that and it always seems to strike a nerve kinda tells you everything you need to know. The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
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People are insulted because it's insulting to be told that you're incapable of independent thought. It shouldn't require any deeper digging to explain it, but you seem like you're smart enough to get that, right?

In re: of Henry, you are technically correct that he played in the NBA. What he didn't do was play at a particularly high level in college. Even as a senior he only put up 13 and 6, though it was a good 13 and 6. But I can't agree that he's a guy you look at and say, "wow, how did we miss the tourney with HIM on our roster?"

The point that late Weber/Groce teams underperformed is something I agree with, but there's a pretty wide gulf between 'we consistently oozed NBA talent' and 'we shoulda won a couple more games and gotten in.' Obelix has done a better job of talking through that general point than I will, so I'll drop it.

Sorry to go OT. I'll shut up now.
 
#28      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Second and Chalmers said:
I'd say it more as floors and ceilings. Teams have a ceiling, the most they could possibly get out of the talent they have. The lack of big-time recruiting has significantly lowered our ceiling, but it is rare for a major conference team to have a ceiling that's lower than sneaking in the tournament. It's similar in football, where except for certain wacko roster situations (2017 Illinois being one) the ceiling for any Power Five team is at least a backdoor 6-6.

It's my view that coaches, or really PROGRAMS, with all the human capital and infrastructure that implies, routinely tend to fall at a given point relative to their ceiling. All five John Groce teams were about the same distance worse than they should have or could have been (save the first one, arguably, although that team was both a Top 10 team in the country and then 2-7 in conference). Bo Ryan's teams were 9 seeds when they had mediocre talent, and became national title contenders with very good talent, same idea.

If you can develop a capital-P program where you maximize what you have, the natural baseline level of talent any major conference team is going to have is going to keep your head above water in almost all years. And then you have the opportunity to land big time players and reach higher than that. But if your program is such that you don't have the ability to maximize what you have, it's not that you MUST get elite talent to win, it's worse than that, even elite talent can't save you. See Lorenzo Romar and Johnny Jones and Paul Hewitt.
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(Sorry to respond to my own post, but I think this is clarifying)

So what I'm looking for from a new coach is not "building recruiting relationships toward the quest for elite players", because while important, I don't believe that's the line between success and failure. I'm looking for evidence of maximization of existing resources, which even if it doesn't bring success NOW, is the force that will guarantee at least a modicum of success over the long term. THAT'S the "it" factor that tells you whether this thing is going to succeed or fail. The degree to which we reach our ceiling will be sticky across whatever the roster is.

Brad Underwood has the raw X's and O's strategic horsepower piece of the "maximization" puzzle. I have never and will never doubt that for a second, it's a proven fact. That doesn't cut against my horror at what we've seen so far, that is the very reason for it. We've accomplished the hard part! It would be so senseless and cruel to have the program management stuff that tons of much lesser coaches are able to do sink this whole operation. I have not given up by a longshot. This is fixable. But I'm deeply concerned by what I've seen.

To bring it back to this thread, the immediate objective to turning it around is two good bigs in the fall. Anthony Walker would unquestionably be one of those.
 
#30      

Obelix

Obelix
Obelix
tpbradley said:
I hate bringing up Weber, but didn't he say that in retrospect he should've recruited the guys he wanted vs the guys he felt he was supposed to recruit?
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And then went out and recruited Orris at Kansas State, a recruit who he had made an example of. :)

Coaches say many things in retrospect trying to justify failure. In all honesty, I do not blame them, they need a job.

I remember that he was fairly successful at SIU which I imagine was due to recruiting to his system.
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It is was mainly due to recruiting at a lower level too. Most of the coaches in high major got their job because of some success somewhere at a lower level. Yet, a lot of times, this success does not transfer over. Recruiting to SIU is totally different than recruiting to Illinois and the B1G. Bill Self (at halftime of the Arizona Maui game) had said that the type of recruit Illinois needs to be successful was totally different than they type of player he was recruiting at Tulsa.

Then, at Illinois, he got relatively highly ranked guys who basically didn't pan out. My memory isn't what it used to be so maybe I'm off here.
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Recruiting at Illinois dropped significantly when Self left. It does not mean that some highly talented recruits indeed did not pan out (e.g., Richmond), or that Weber did not recruit some talented players (e.g., Leonard) but overall the talent level on our roster dropped from 2000-06.
 
#31      

tpbradley

tpbradley
tpbradley
imjustsooffended said:
I just love when this place devolves into an S&C and Obelix standoff where literally nothing and everything is said. If you two could just exchange email information and relieve us all of the headache of having to scroll through multiple pages to find even the tiniest bit of news, that'd be great I think.
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Well, I think we've officially hit ludicrous speed. S&C is responding to his own posts now haha.
 
#34      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
Obelix said:
Recruiting at Illinois dropped significantly when Self left.
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The legend of Self the recruiter is slightly overstated. That's true at Kansas too actually.

Here are all the top 100 guys in Self's classes versus Weber's late run

2001: #62 Roger Powell
2002: #19 Dee Brown, #48 Deron Williams, #78 James Augustine, #86 Aaron Spears
2003: #28 Rich McBride, #53 Brian Randle
Four NBA players, only one of any meaningful length, among that group, who was also the only first rounder and only lottery pick

('03-04, 13-3 1st in B1G; '04-05, 15-1 1st in B1G; '05-06, 11-5 T-2nd in B1G)

2009: #35 DJ Richardson, #49 Brandon Paul
2010: #24 Jereme Richmond, #29 Meyers Leonard, #76 Crandall Head
2011: #65 Mike Shaw, #66 Myke Henry, #69 Tracy Abrams, #78 Nnanna Egwu
Three NBA players, only one of any meaningful length (so far) among that group, who was also the only first rounder and only lottery pick

('11-12, 6-12 9th in B1G; '12-13 8-10 T-7th in B1G; '13-14 7-11 T-8th in B1G)

When I talk about new information changing my way of thinking over the past decade, that is honestly probably the most significant single part of it. That's like a science experiment where you look at the results and say "whoops, the determinative variable isn't what I thought it was"

And of course you look at those two lists of players and in your head you immediately start going "well wait a minute, those aren't the same at all for X, Y and Z reasons." Scouting, player development, fit to the system, team discipline, number of years you keep the players, etc etc.

My whole point is that that's exactly right! And its the "X, Y and Z reasons" that are the actual driving force in college basketball.

If Brad Underwood can get "X Y and Z" right, he's going to win here, whether it's with a bunch of Ayo Dosunmu's or a bunch of Alan Griffin's. And then, if we can get the "X Y and Z" right and start filling that chart in with EJ Liddell and Adam Miller and co (we've already begun with Ayo), we are going to be back to the penthouse in short order.

But then if our next couple classes look like either of those charts above, everyone here is going to freak out and worship the ground at Underwood's feet, certain that B1G championships are inevitable, yet it will mean nothing and end just like Weber and Groce did without that "X Y and Z".
 
#35      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Obelix said:
Because the the 2007-12 period is much more indicative of the post Dee era than anything to do with 2000-06. The problem is not the overall 1980-today illinois history, which on the average is highly and positively influenced by the consistently good eras (80s and 2000-06). The problem is the post Dee era and Illinois' inability to maintain the talent level where it needs to consistently compete in B1G and beyond.
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I said nothing about 1980 to today. I was pointing out that we had sustained success for much longer than the two relatively small bubbles of time you cited, which actually makes your original point stronger, not weaker. My point was from the '80s all the way through Dee (and to a lesser extent several years after him), we had a very good track record. There wasn't really that noteworthy of a dip between your two cited successful eras; they were really part of one, long, success streak.
 
#36      

ILL in IA

ILL in IA
Iowa City
ILL in IA
Second and Chalmers said:
The legend of Self the recruiter is slightly overstated. That's true at Kansas too actually.

Here are all the top 100 guys in Self's classes versus Weber's late run

2001: #62 Roger Powell
2002: #19 Dee Brown, #48 Deron Williams, #78 James Augustine, #86 Aaron Spears
2003: #28 Rich McBride, #53 Brian Randle
Four NBA players, only one of any meaningful length, among that group, who was also the only first rounder and only lottery pick

('03-04, 13-3 1st in B1G; '04-05, 15-1 1st in B1G; '05-06, 11-5 T-2nd in B1G)

2009: #35 DJ Richardson, #49 Brandon Paul
2010: #24 Jereme Richmond, #29 Meyers Leonard, #76 Crandall Head
2011: #65 Mike Shaw, #66 Myke Henry, #69 Tracy Abrams, #78 Nnanna Egwu
Three NBA players, only one of any meaningful length (so far) among that group, who was also the only first rounder and only lottery pick

('11-12, 6-12 9th in B1G; '12-13 8-10 T-7th in B1G; '13-14 7-11 T-8th in B1G)

When I talk about new information changing my way of thinking over the past decade, that is honestly probably the most significant single part of it. That's like a science experiment where you look at the results and say "whoops, the determinative variable isn't what I thought it was"

And of course you look at those two lists of players and in your head you immediately start going "well wait a minute, those aren't the same at all for X, Y and Z reasons." Scouting, player development, fit to the system, team discipline, number of years you keep the players, etc etc.

My whole point is that that's exactly right! And its the "X, Y and Z reasons" that are the actual driving force in college basketball.

If Brad Underwood can get "X Y and Z" right, he's going to win here, whether it's with a bunch of Ayo Dosunmu's or a bunch of Alan Griffin's. And then, if we can get the "X Y and Z" right and start filling that chart in with EJ Liddell and Adam Miller and co (we've already begun with Ayo), we are going to be back to the penthouse in short order.

But then if our next couple classes look like either of those charts above, everyone here is going to freak out and worship the ground at Underwood's feet, certain that B1G championships are inevitable, yet it will mean nothing and end just like Weber and Groce did without that "X Y and Z".
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Charlie Villanueva belongs on the list for Self
 
#37      

Second and Chalmers

S
Second and Chalmers
ILL in IA said:
Charlie Villanueva belongs on the list for Self
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Yes, but not if we're talking about how the talent level on the roster has changed over time, which is the thrust of Obelix's point.

I do believe that Self's recruiting would have improved (and obviously been radically different than what Weber did) had he stayed at Illinois, with Charlie V being proof of concept. Add Sherron Collins and Julian Wright and go from there. But more importantly we would have retained a Hall of Fame coach and program sustainer.
 
#40      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
tenor.gif
 
#41      

Greensboro

Greensboro
Greensboro
Second and Chalmers said:
Meyers was a freaking monster that year. In my 7 years as a season ticket holder (05-06 to 11-12) the two player-seasons that stand out above the rest as just game-altering forces to watch in person were Dee's senior year and Meyers Leonard.
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Leonard was capable of some highlight reel stuff and if that is your definition of freaking monster fine, ... But honorable mention big ten isn't what I usually define as monster. 1st in blocks, 3rd in rebounds but a good gap between Draymond /Sullinger to the rest of the field, 7th in player efficiency, not in top ten in points. Not seeing monster in measurables.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/big-ten/2012.html
 
#43      

Rap73

R
Rap73
Does anyone notice that all the players with the exception of D. WILLIAMS were from Illinois. Illinois used to get any player they wanted from the State, now besides Ayo we lose on all the good ones. Change this and we win again.
 
#44      

Illwinsagain

Illwinsagain
Cary, IL
Illwinsagain
NewFan2011 said:
Yep. A big reason for the Self recruitment legend is the CV commit which showed Illinois fans that we could recruit with the best.
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Only problem with this, is he never signed the line which is dotted. And, he didn't go to Kansas either. Not everyone was convinced that he was a "solid" verbal, back in the day, CBS had an article listing UI as the #2 class, IF CV showed up. But, have to give credit for getting the verbal.
 
#45      

RickBB

R
RickBB
Greensboro said:
Leonard was capable of some highlight reel stuff and if that is your definition of freaking monster fine, ... But honorable mention big ten isn't what I usually define as monster. 1st in blocks, 3rd in rebounds but a good gap between Draymond /Sullinger to the rest of the field, 7th in player efficiency, not in top ten in points. Not seeing monster in measurables.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/big-ten/2012.html
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I was going to say the same thing. If Meyers was such a monster that year, how were we terrible? Granted Maniscalco's ankle had the stability of a bunch of rocks in a sock, and Tracy was doing the same things that frustrated people 6 years later, but we thought he'd grow out of....but that team SHOULD have been better simply based on Paul, DJ & Bertrand......I guess that's why Bruce got fired. But a team that goes 17-15, is sorta Monster-less in my eyes. (Holy cow..I just realized that team was 15-3 at one point, maybe he was a Monster through 18 games).
 
#46      

Joel Goodson

Joel Goodson
respect my decision™
Joel Goodson
Rap73 said:
Does anyone notice that all the players with the exception of D. WILLIAMS were from Illinois. Illinois used to get any player they wanted from the State, now besides Ayo we lose on all the good ones. Change this and we win again.
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Not as simple as you make it out to be. Illinois isn't producing high D1 talent like it used to.
 
#47      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
Rap73 said:
Does anyone notice that all the players with the exception of D. WILLIAMS were from Illinois. Illinois used to get any player they wanted from the State, now besides Ayo we lose on all the good ones. Change this and we win again.
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Whoa, I can't believe no one has ever realized this before!
 
#48      

Rap73

R
Rap73
sacraig said:
Whoa, I can't believe no one has ever realized this before!
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It just proves a point that if you can't get the best kids in the home state, how do you expect to get the best kids from other states.
 
#49      

NeaforThree

NeaforThree
NeaforThree
Meyers was good to maybe great here but never reached his potential. Could have been an all timer had he stayed, but I don't blame him. Now lets hope we can grab another nice big soon.
 
#50      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Rap73 said:
Does anyone notice that all the players with the exception of D. WILLIAMS were from Illinois. Illinois used to get any player they wanted from the State, now besides Ayo we lose on all the good ones. Change this and we win again.
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I'll say this much: it's easy to recruit kids from your home state, in most cases.

However this narrative is old and tired. You don't need to recruit the best kids in state. Not to get to philosophical (or whatever you want to call it), but the world has change in the past 15 years. Distance means much less, information is much more readily available. Add to this the fact that transfers are much more common and therefore Illinois has less talent than it did even 5 or 6 years ago (gone are the Roses and Parkers, probably to IMG or the like) and it's easier to see this recruitment not as "lock down your borders, worry about outsiders second" to best available player.

When Oregon (and don't get me wrong, they are a quality program, with a quality coach) and Iowa State (less so) are grabbing top Illinois kids and guys like Whitney are moving out of the state, its time to give up on being so concerned about getting every top 100 Illinois kid. BU seems to realize this and to an even greater deal Lovie. Most of the "stars" on the football team come from states that dont even border border states of Illinois. Recruiting is national, full stop.