He hasn't performed because he's obviously been in the dog house. Not because we have more talented kids ahead of him.
You and others are creating a self-soothing narrative to convince yourself that none of this is problematic. "He hasn't done anything this year!". That's true. But what you'd ideally want is for the kid to learn his lesson, settle in, and then have 2+ years of productivity. Kids get suspended at other schools all the time. Most of them come back, learn their lesson, and get back at it.
Instead, he -- like many, many other kids over the past several months -- are gone.
The defections from this program aren't all for the same reasons. But the defection pool is no less devastating. And you don't see a trend?