NBA Draft

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#6      
Very happy for Wagler for getting the opportunity to chase his dream, but I just can't help but pine for the old days when uncovering a player like this meant you'd gotten a hold of one of the defining players of the Big Ten of the 2020's.

He's incredible in a way that's giving "four-year college icon" more than "freshman lottery pick" in terms of his style of play, but the NBA has changed and his craft and decision making and space manipulation offensively is what the league is seeking now.
 
#7      
Is there a chance Wagler stays another year?
 
#9      
Is there a chance Wagler stays another year?
He’s #11 in Sam Vecinie’s latest top 100 (updated Jan 8th).

He’s the projected #18 pick on USA Today’s latest mock.

He’s the projected #11 pick on Bleacher Report’s latest mock.



At this point in time, my bet would be no. He's probably above where Will Riley was projected at this point in time last season.
 
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#11      
I agree. I'm just wondering if theres a chance he stays another year for top 5 pick.

Dreaming I guess.
Well, if NBA scouts convince Keaton he'll be a second round pick, then the Illini might be able to offer enough NIL to get him to stay for another year.

OTOH, if those same scouts agree with the many current first round projections, then Keaton would have to really, really like college ball to stick around.
 
#12      
He’s #11 in Sam Vecinie’s latest top 100 (updated Jan 8th).

He’s the projected #18 pick on USA Today’s latest mock.

He’s the projected #11 pick on Bleacher Report’s latest mock.



At this point in time, my bet would be no. He's probably above where Will Riley was projected at this point in time last season.
So Will Riley signed a 4 year, $17.3M rookie contract that pays him $3.5M this year and has $7.2M guaranteed as the 21st player selected in last years NBA draft.

With him seeing way more time in the G-league, wondering if prospects are starting to think that unless you are a sure fire lottery pick, it would make more financial sense to come back to college (transfer if necessary), get paid about the same (or potentially more) than year 1 of an NBA deal, then get drafted higher up with a much more lucrative NBA deal.
 
#13      
So Will Riley signed a 4 year, $17.3M rookie contract that pays him $3.5M this year and has $7.2M guaranteed as the 21st player selected in last years NBA draft.

With him seeing way more time in the G-league, wondering if prospects are starting to think that unless you are a sure fire lottery pick, it would make more financial sense to come back to college (transfer if necessary), get paid about the same (or potentially more) than year 1 of an NBA deal, then get drafted higher up with a much more lucrative NBA deal.
I assume it’ll continue being “first round go, second round stay”.

While they might make about the same amount in college:

1. It delays their second contract, which would be much larger than their first, by one year.

2. There’s no guarantee that coming back raises your draft stock. You’re just as likely to get selected lower the following year as you are to get selected higher.
 
#14      
I assume it’ll continue being “first round go, second round stay”.

While they might make about the same amount in college:

1. It delays their second contract, which would be much larger than their first, by one year.

2. There’s no guarantee that coming back raises your draft stock. You’re just as likely to get selected lower the following year as you are to get selected higher.
3. Injury risk. $7M is life changing money.
 
#16      
So Will Riley signed a 4 year, $17.3M rookie contract that pays him $3.5M this year and has $7.2M guaranteed as the 21st player selected in last years NBA draft.

With him seeing way more time in the G-league, wondering if prospects are starting to think that unless you are a sure fire lottery pick, it would make more financial sense to come back to college (transfer if necessary), get paid about the same (or potentially more) than year 1 of an NBA deal, then get drafted higher up with a much more lucrative NBA deal.
Reasons to take the NBA deal at the same rate as the NIL.
- Risk management: The NBA 1st round contracts have 2 years of guaranteed money. The NIL may not be there next year - injury, or poor play issues.
- Overall financials: The NBA deal starts the timer toward your 2nd NBA contract which is where the real money lies. Delaying joining the NBA for a year, gives up the value of the last year in the NBA, not the first.

So the winning financial case for delaying a first round offer seems to be:
1) If they can move up significantly in the next years draft. (Into the top 6.)
2) They are not going to make it to a second contract in the NBA.
Being confident of both #1, and #2 seems unlikely. The numbers do not look close otherwise.

Happiness is worth something. Is it worth the salary of your last year in the NBA?
 
#18      
So Will Riley signed a 4 year, $17.3M rookie contract that pays him $3.5M this year and has $7.2M guaranteed as the 21st player selected in last years NBA draft.

With him seeing way more time in the G-league, wondering if prospects are starting to think that unless you are a sure fire lottery pick, it would make more financial sense to come back to college (transfer if necessary), get paid about the same (or potentially more) than year 1 of an NBA deal, then get drafted higher up with a much more lucrative NBA deal.
No. Unless you get like $15M NIL.
 
#20      
Look at Ayos salary and trajectory - that’s why it’s worth it; even just sticking around in the league as a rotation piece.

There are definitely guys who develop and improve their draft stock, but there are others that drop. Ayo seems like a case where he worked his butt off and was more league ready whether or not he improved his stock. And being ready will translate to longevity and a lot of money.

The only concern I would have for Wagler is his durability and physical development. The skills are lottery worthy for sure. If he stays in college, and he sure looks like a high draft pick today, he'd get a massive payday for his services.
 
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#21      
He’s #11 in Sam Vecinie’s latest top 100 (updated Jan 8th).

He’s the projected #18 pick on USA Today’s latest mock.

He’s the projected #11 pick on Bleacher Report’s latest mock.



At this point in time, my bet would be no. He's probably above where Will Riley was projected at this point in time last season.
He is absolutely a + Will. So consistent and measured. Will was great but KW is another level.
 
#22      
So Will Riley signed a 4 year, $17.3M rookie contract that pays him $3.5M this year and has $7.2M guaranteed as the 21st player selected in last years NBA draft.

With him seeing way more time in the G-league, wondering if prospects are starting to think that unless you are a sure fire lottery pick, it would make more financial sense to come back to college (transfer if necessary), get paid about the same (or potentially more) than year 1 of an NBA deal, then get drafted higher up with a much more lucrative NBA deal.
You're channeling Monty Hall?

You have 17.3 Million dollars. Would you like to trade that for what's behind door number 3?
 
#23      
I assume it’ll continue being “first round go, second round stay”.

While they might make about the same amount in college:

1. It delays their second contract, which would be much larger than their first, by one year.

2. There’s no guarantee that coming back raises your draft stock. You’re just as likely to get selected lower the following year as you are to get selected higher.
Coming back may have cost Frankie.
 
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