Really interesting how landscape is evolving and how the incentives right now favor returning to school for any player projected to be outside the top 20 or so, which is making the second round pretty weak. Does the NBA attempt to sweeten the pot and start to offer more guaranteed money to entice those players into the draft? Or does the nba just not care enough about second round picks to make any changes?
Given that second rounders have a less than 50% chance of making I roster I tend to think it’ll be the latter, which I think is a win/win for both college and the nba and is looking more like a baseball model. The guys who can impact a team go pro, and those that need more development stick in college, which will continue to elevate the college game. Works for me.
That said, surprised there wasn’t more of a market for Momcilovic given he has positional size and he was the best shooter in the draft.
The NBA has taken steps to sweeten the pot, mainly the second round exemption. This allows teams to go over the salary cap to sign second round players above the rookie minimum. As an added bonus, they don't count against the salary cap until July 31, which functionally means you can sign free agents as if that player is not on your roster until July 31.
The use of the exception is optional, and so a team is only going to part with guaranteed money like that for a guy they really want. It seems teams are using the guarantee of an exception to dangle to prospects who might choose to go back to college.
The risk if you don't get a second round exemption is a 2-way deal, where your guaranteed money is like $85k. In Last year's draft, picks 31-38 all got second round exemptions as did four other players. So a little less than half the second round.
This is kind of where the common knowledge of "it's better to stay in college if you're not in the first round" is potentially not true. If you get a second round exemption guarantee after your Junior year, there's no guarantee you get one next time around. And that's a big deal potential earnings-wise. Tyrese Proctor could have come back to Duke but he stayed in the 2025 draft and got a 4yr/$8.7 million deal as the #49 pick. Brooks Barnhizer got drafted ahead of him (#44) in the same draft, with no eligibility left, and got a 2-way deal. Proctor, who played in 50 NBA games this season, will have earned about $1.3 million this year while Barnhizer's earnings, after 40 NBA games, are $138k according to Spotrac.
Now, I think the reason this hasn't really swayed many guys is it makes the most sense for juniors, with only 1 year of eligibility left. With NIL the way it is, if you're in the NBA discussion at all you're going to make good money and having eligibility is almost like having guaranteed contract years. So I think caring about the second round exemption just really isn't a thing until you're down to one year of eligibility. And then at that point you're potentially the most desirable guy in the transfer portal. You are good enough for a 2nd round NBA pick and have three years of NCAA experience under your belt. You can get PAID, and who knows, maybe sneak into the first round the next year. But there were reports around here that Stoj was fishing for a second round exception guarantee, so my guess is it is playing a role in some decisions, but really only the very close ones.