NBA Draft

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#51      
the juiceman cometh
OskieWowWow said:
The Bulls are where careers go to die
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The latest and greatest episode of the Enduring Myth of the Hapless Franchise.

Cavs were once where careers went to die before LeBron. Bulls were once before also in that same boat, before they drafted Jordan.

The truth is that players make the franchise, not the other way around. There's not a single team that could have drafted LeBron and ruined his career. Same with Jordan. Anybody getting picked in the top-10 is going to get ample opportuniy to make a career for themselves no matter which team drafts them.
 
#55      
jamarvelous31
the juiceman cometh said:
The latest and greatest episode of the Enduring Myth of the Hapless Franchise.

Cavs were once where careers went to die before LeBron. Bulls were once before also in that same boat, before they drafted Jordan.

The truth is that players make the franchise, not the other way around. There's not a single team that could have drafted LeBron and ruined his career. Same with Jordan. Anybody getting picked in the top-10 is going to get ample opportuniy to make a career for themselves no matter which team drafts them.
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Sure the 2 greatest basketball players ever are going to succeed regardless.

But the Bulls (who have a .35 win % since 1984 without Jordan) and the Cavs (.43 since 03 without LeBron) have had a combined 23 other top 10 picks in that time frame.

Easy counterpoints are D Rose having a career altering injury in garbage minutes (where a functional org would've had him on the bench). Or Luol Deng almost dying from the shoddy Bulls medical staff.

Bad orgs can ruin top 10 players too.
 
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#56      
the juiceman cometh
jamarvelous31 said:
Sure the 2 greatest basketball players ever are going to succeed regardless.

But the Bulls (who have a .35 win % since 1984 without Jordan) and the Cavs (.43 since 03 without LeBron) have had a combined 23 other top 10 picks in that time frame.

Easy counterpoints are D Rose having a career altering injury in garbage minutes (where a functional org would've had him on the bench). Or Luol Deng almost dying from the shoddy Bulls medical staff.

Bad orgs can ruin top 10 players too.
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So, for one, D Rose and Deng didn't even happen under the current iteration of the Bulls. Thibs kept D Rose in (was also involved in the Deng mess but that was mainly team doctors...I'm guessing those docs are also long gone), and he hasn't been there in over a decade, so unless you're claiming some kind of bad juju that follows a franchise around it doesn't really make sense.

Second, luck is a bigger factor than franchise. Thibs subsequently got hired by the T-Wolves and Knicks, got criticized for the same kind of stuff, but never managed to get their star players hurt in the same way. Just luck of the draw.

Most top 10 picks don't become superstars. But they all get plenty of chances to regardless of who drafts them. If a player is a superstar, they'll lift up the franchise. Any franchise.
 
#57      
jamarvelous31
the juiceman cometh said:
So, for one, D Rose and Deng didn't even happen under the current iteration of the Bulls. Thibs kept D Rose in (was also involved in the Deng mess but that was mainly team doctors...I'm guessing those docs are also long gone), and he hasn't been there in over a decade, so unless you're claiming some kind of bad juju that follows a franchise around it doesn't really make sense.

Second, luck is a bigger factor than franchise. Thibs subsequently got hired by the T-Wolves and Knicks, got criticized for the same kind of stuff, but never managed to get their star players hurt in the same way. Just luck of the draw.

Most top 10 picks don't become superstars. But they all get plenty of chances to regardless of who drafts them. If a player is a superstar, they'll lift up the franchise. Any franchise.
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Jerry and Michael Reinsdorf are the constants. The Bulls culture starts at the top & is a significant reason why the Bulls have been mired in mediocrity.

Those 3 franchises that hired a win now coach who hates playing rookies still had a sub .500 record the past 20 years...despite 29 top 10 picks. You might say the Knicks are an exception b/c they're in the Finals(!) and had 5 top 10 picks in the last 10 years, but the current roster only has a 2nd rounder drafted by them (Mitchell Robinson).

Yes luck plays a part, top 10 players get more chances and if you're an actual top 10 player that will lead even bad organizations to wins, but the organizational philosophy around development and staffing are very relevant.
 
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#58      
Boskydell
If the Bulls want Wagler, which has been my prediction since before the lottery when it became apparent that they were going to have some"lottery luck" and be in this or a similar situation, that they would have to "sacrifice" Wilson. Moving up to 5 from 15 would be incredibly expensive: future frps, and Matas would probably do it. While I think that Wilson has a chance to be better than all of them, the Bulls already have that archetype covered with Matas, Sticks, Noa, and Lenny. What they don't have is the perfect player to slide between Giddey and Matas, or possibly replace Giddey. So I say, trade down to 5, and grab some extra assets.
 
#59      
ChiefGritty
Rumblings of the Jazz falling in love with Boozer have me worried about the Bulls being forced to choose between a Peterson who they don't have 100% confidence in the physical and mental makeup in versus going off the board at 4.
 
#60      
ChiIllini75
ChiefGritty said:
Rumblings of the Jazz falling in love with Boozer have me worried about the Bulls being forced to choose between a Peterson who they don't have 100% confidence in the physical and mental makeup in versus going off the board at 4.
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I think there is almost no scenario (given the Bulls being Bulls I'll leave some wiggle room) that the Bulls go off board no matter who from the top 4 are left for them.

I'd have concerns with Peterson, but at 4 the talent is too tempting to pass up.
 
#61      
ChiefGritty
ChiIllini75 said:
I think there is almost no scenario (given the Bulls being Bulls I'll leave some wiggle room) that the Bulls go off board no matter who from the top 4 are left for them.

I'd have concerns with Peterson, but at 4 the talent is too tempting to pass up.
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Hard to have the trust in Graham who doesn't have any track record yet to say that.

Wilson seems to be so exactly in line with the philosophy Graham articulated (SLAP, size length athleticism physicality) that it's hard to imagine the Bulls passing on him, but if the top 3 cool on Peterson should we be cooling on him too? All of a sudden that's a really hard question.

I liked nothing I saw or heard out of Lawrence this year, frankly.
 
#62      
ChiIllini75
If Peterson can spin any kind of story in interviews, all a GM will need to do is cue up the 1st half of the game against BYU in Lawrence. Peterson absolutely destroyed Dybantsa and crew in way that is rare to see in college.

Just need to overlook he then called it a day and KU had to hang on to win :)
 
#63      
Fly Illini Fly!
https://twitter.com/x/status/2065155241159368906

"RD1, PK7 Keaton Wagler

The Kings are working out Keaton Wagler next week, according to league sources. Though Acuff remains the favorite for this choice, the franchise of course is doing its due diligence and Wagler could be available after he was previously expected to be the fifth choice. There was a bit of shock on social media when I moved Wagler down last week. But inevitably, someone will slip on draft night. And it could be Wagler, since league sources say the Clippers aren’t head over heels in love with him for the fifth pick and Wagler’s group canceled his workout this week with the Nets, who have the sixth pick.

But Wagler is still a lottery lock. Someone will scoop him up if he does fall to this range after he became the orchestrator of a high-powered Illinois offense with his high-IQ playmaking and crafty scoring. After he showed up at Illinois as a four-star recruit with no expectations of becoming a one-and-done, he scored 46 at Purdue against a top-ranked team in the country, then kept rolling and led the team to an unexpected Final Four appearance. But he's a quirky player in that he logged zero dunks. To become an NBA star, Wagler needs to overcome a lack of traditional athleticism. And teams question just how special he is as a shooter too."
 
#64      
EllderIlliniFan
https://twitter.com/x/status/2065155241159368906

"RD1, PK7 Keaton Wagler

The Kings are working out Keaton Wagler next week, according to league sources. Though Acuff remains the favorite for this choice, the franchise of course is doing its due diligence and Wagler could be available after he was previously expected to be the fifth choice. There was a bit of shock on social media when I moved Wagler down last week. But inevitably, someone will slip on draft night. And it could be Wagler, since league sources say the Clippers aren’t head over heels in love with him for the fifth pick and Wagler’s group canceled his workout this week with the Nets, who have the sixth pick.

But Wagler is still a lottery lock. Someone will scoop him up if he does fall to this range after he became the orchestrator of a high-powered Illinois offense with his high-IQ playmaking and crafty scoring. After he showed up at Illinois as a four-star recruit with no expectations of becoming a one-and-done, he scored 46 at Purdue against a top-ranked team in the country, then kept rolling and led the team to an unexpected Final Four appearance. But he's a quirky player in that he logged zero dunks. To become an NBA star, Wagler needs to overcome a lack of traditional athleticism. And teams question just how special he is as a shooter too."
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From watching the NBA playoffs Wagler might need Judo, Kung Fu, or some other Marshall Arts training.
 
#65      
Mobi
Fly Illini Fly! said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2065155241159368906

"RD1, PK7 Keaton Wagler

The Kings are working out Keaton Wagler next week, according to league sources. Though Acuff remains the favorite for this choice, the franchise of course is doing its due diligence and Wagler could be available after he was previously expected to be the fifth choice. There was a bit of shock on social media when I moved Wagler down last week. But inevitably, someone will slip on draft night. And it could be Wagler, since league sources say the Clippers aren’t head over heels in love with him for the fifth pick and Wagler’s group canceled his workout this week with the Nets, who have the sixth pick.

But Wagler is still a lottery lock. Someone will scoop him up if he does fall to this range after he became the orchestrator of a high-powered Illinois offense with his high-IQ playmaking and crafty scoring. After he showed up at Illinois as a four-star recruit with no expectations of becoming a one-and-done, he scored 46 at Purdue against a top-ranked team in the country, then kept rolling and led the team to an unexpected Final Four appearance. But he's a quirky player in that he logged zero dunks. To become an NBA star, Wagler needs to overcome a lack of traditional athleticism. And teams question just how special he is as a shooter too."
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Wagler might drop but that's ok. It is fair to question his shooting because his ceiling might depend on it. But I think he will be ok.
 
#68      
nonsenseone
logjam said:
Please God no...
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plz yes. as much as i hate them for shipping ayo if they get both wilson and wagler they could easily build championship core i can forgive them. think kg and steph lite.

plus ayo is ufa and bulls have one of the most cap space. i would offer 30 per yr. borderline all star.
draft lottery will benefit bulls owner who loves to be competitive every yr they will get a shot at top 5 pick every single draft.
 
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#69      
nonsenseone
ChiefGritty said:
Hard to have the trust in Graham who doesn't have any track record yet to say that.

Wilson seems to be so exactly in line with the philosophy Graham articulated (SLAP, size length athleticism physicality) that it's hard to imagine the Bulls passing on him, but if the top 3 cool on Peterson should we be cooling on him too? All of a sudden that's a really hard question.

I liked nothing I saw or heard out of Lawrence this year, frankly.
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graham has the easiest job at 4 although he could trade down. assuming he picks at 4, him moving up from 15 and hitting jackpot is what matters theres no consensus from 7-10 this prospect can easily boom/bust. if wilson and the other prospect becomes top 5 prospect in this draft, he will keep his job for a long time.
 
#70      
Mobi
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Shot 41% on catch and shoot threes and 39% on threes off the bounce.
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Let me tell you what are the 3pt% for some of this year 's guards in top 10.

Acuff 44%
Flemings 39%
Peterson 38%
Boozer 39%
Burries 39%

40% 3pt% college stats means good NBA shooters but not necessarily elite. When you don't have elite athleticism nor elite shooting, NBA teams are not sure if you will turn out to be a #1 player on a team. So that can drop you from the #5 pick.
 
#71      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
Mobi said:
Let me tell you what are the 3pt% for some of this year 's guards in top 10.

Acuff 44%
Flemings 39%
Peterson 38%
Boozer 39%
Burries 39%

40% 3pt% college stats means good NBA shooters but not necessarily elite. When you don't have elite athleticism nor elite shooting, NBA teams are not sure if you will turn out to be a #1 player on a team. So that can drop you from the #5 pick.
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What % does he need to hit for you to consider him elite?

Also, Wagler's attempts per game were more than twice alot of those guys. Doing it on high volume is a significant aspect in judging one's shooting ability.
 
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#72      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
The recent Intel seems to be that the Kings really want Acuff

And then LAC isn't overwhelmingly thrilled with Wagler, but their pick is likely to be between Wagler and Brown.

Shouldn't the Kings trade up to 5?
 
#73      
the juiceman cometh
jamarvelous31 said:
Jerry and Michael Reinsdorf are the constants. The Bulls culture starts at the top & is a significant reason why the Bulls have been mired in mediocrity.
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Yeah, they are terrible owners. But they did not tell Thibs to keep D. Rose in. That was Thibs doing what Thibs has always done, and what he continued to do after he left the Bulls.

By the way, Derrick Rose still ended up having an above average career even for the #1 pick in the draft. It wasn't what it could have been. Clearly he was on a whole different kind of trajectory before the injury. But his career hardly "died" because he got drafted by the Bulls.

Plus if all you have is 2 anecdotes from 10-20 years ago, I can match those:

Jimmy Butler - 2011 Draft, #30 - Definitely did not have his career ruined by being drafted by the Bulls. In fact, had a much better career than you'd anticiapte given his draft slot. 6x All-Star (3 of those were with the Bulls), 5x All-NBA, 5x All-Defense.

Tony Snell - 2013, #20 - Not a superstar, but for the #20 pick, 8 season and 600 games played is a great career. Look at the chart below. A lot of lottery picks don't get that.

James Johnson - 2009, #16 - Dude played 16 NBA seasons. Career definitely did not "die."

Bobby Portis - 2015, #22 - 11 years, 721 games, and still going strong. Good NBA career for a late first round pick.

Taj Gibson - 2009, #26 - Dude is 40 years old, and still in the league. Has played in over 1,000 NBA games, over 17 seasons, with career earnings of approximately $95 million. Not a bad career for a late 1st round pick!

Wendell Carter - 2018 Draft #7 - 461 games including 423 starts over 8 seasons, still going strong (played 78 games this season, starting every one) well on his way to outplaiying the below chart.

Coby White- 2019 Draft #7 - 472 games, 251 starts over 7 seasons, still going strong and at 25 will very likely out-do the average career length on the below chart.

And I mean, lest we forget, our man Ayo. Getting drafted by the Bulls probably ended up with him having more opportunity than other possible landing spots, and that has been key to him carving out what looks like it will be a very good NBA career even though the odds were stacked against him as a second round draft pick.



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#74      
Calvin
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Shot 41% on catch and shoot threes and 39% on threes off the bounce.
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I get it, they're talking about high lottery, but question his shooting after his season? Madness. Wagler made guys pay over and over again with DEEP range and a deadly step-back. Wasn't jacking them up, just smart with his open looks, or taking them when the clock was low and he had the better look. After Purdue, surely he was heavily scouted and still kept up his highly efficient production.
I'm biased obviously, but after watching recent drafts also with hindsight bias, it makes me wonder...
 
#75      
Battle89
the juiceman cometh said:
Yeah, they are terrible owners. But they did not tell Thibs to keep D. Rose in. That was Thibs doing what Thibs has always done, and what he continued to do after he left the Bulls.

By the way, Derrick Rose still ended up having an above average career even for the #1 pick in the draft. It wasn't what it could have been. Clearly he was on a whole different kind of trajectory before the injury. But his career hardly "died" because he got drafted by the Bulls.

Plus if all you have is 2 anecdotes from 10-20 years ago, I can match those:

Jimmy Butler - 2011 Draft, #30 - Definitely did not have his career ruined by being drafted by the Bulls. In fact, had a much better career than you'd anticiapte given his draft slot. 6x All-Star (3 of those were with the Bulls), 5x All-NBA, 5x All-Defense.

Tony Snell - 2013, #20 - Not a superstar, but for the #20 pick, 8 season and 600 games played is a great career. Look at the chart below. A lot of lottery picks don't get that.

James Johnson - 2009, #16 - Dude played 16 NBA seasons. Career definitely did not "die."

Bobby Portis - 2015, #22 - 11 years, 721 games, and still going strong. Good NBA career for a late first round pick.

Taj Gibson - 2009, #26 - Dude is 40 years old, and still in the league. Has played in over 1,000 NBA games, over 17 seasons, with career earnings of approximately $95 million. Not a bad career for a late 1st round pick!

Wendell Carter - 2018 Draft #7 - 461 games including 423 starts over 8 seasons, still going strong (played 78 games this season, starting every one) well on his way to outplaiying the below chart.

Coby White- 2019 Draft #7 - 472 games, 251 starts over 7 seasons, still going strong and at 25 will very likely out-do the average career length on the below chart.

And I mean, lest we forget, our man Ayo. Getting drafted by the Bulls probably ended up with him having more opportunity than other possible landing spots, and that has been key to him carving out what looks like it will be a very good NBA career even though the odds were stacked against him as a second round draft pick.



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How in heck did 5 guys get picked ahead of Larry Bird? Indiana State pedigree I guess but come on.
 
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