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NCAA Tournament 2023 Thread
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<blockquote data-quote="Fighter of the Nightman" data-source="post: 1879728" data-attributes="member: 590800"><p>Semi-OT background, but I would like some input here. I'm trying to analyze how much Big Ten programs (and specifically Illinois) have over- or underachieved compared to their seeds since the Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985. So, I need a metric to go against.</p><p></p><p>So my ON-topic questions is this. What do you think is a "fair" baseline expectation for each seed line in March Madness to mark the postseason as a failure, meeting expectations or exceeding expectations? The original way I did it was this:</p><p></p><p><strong>NC Game or Winning the NC:</strong> Exceeding expectations for any team</p><p><strong>Final Four:</strong> Expectation for a #1 seed</p><p><strong>Elite Eight:</strong> Expectation for a #2 seed</p><p><strong>Sweet Sixteen:</strong> Expectation for a #3 seed or #4 seed</p><p><strong>Second Round:</strong> Expectation for a #5 seed, #6 seed or #7 seed</p><p><strong>First Round:</strong> Expectation for #8 seed or lower (8/9 is so even)</p><p></p><p>This seemed obvious at first, but it is SO difficult to make a Final Four. I feel kind of harsh saying a #1 seed who made the Elite Eight and lost to a #2 seed "failed to meet expectations" that year. Additionally, a #2 seed losing to a #3 seed in the Sweet Sixteen is not exactly uncommon. However, I don't really know how I'd edit the above.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Fighter of the Nightman, post: 1879728, member: 590800"] Semi-OT background, but I would like some input here. I'm trying to analyze how much Big Ten programs (and specifically Illinois) have over- or underachieved compared to their seeds since the Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985. So, I need a metric to go against. So my ON-topic questions is this. What do you think is a "fair" baseline expectation for each seed line in March Madness to mark the postseason as a failure, meeting expectations or exceeding expectations? The original way I did it was this: [B]NC Game or Winning the NC:[/B] Exceeding expectations for any team [B]Final Four:[/B] Expectation for a #1 seed [B]Elite Eight:[/B] Expectation for a #2 seed [B]Sweet Sixteen:[/B] Expectation for a #3 seed or #4 seed [B]Second Round:[/B] Expectation for a #5 seed, #6 seed or #7 seed [B]First Round:[/B] Expectation for #8 seed or lower (8/9 is so even) This seemed obvious at first, but it is SO difficult to make a Final Four. I feel kind of harsh saying a #1 seed who made the Elite Eight and lost to a #2 seed "failed to meet expectations" that year. Additionally, a #2 seed losing to a #3 seed in the Sweet Sixteen is not exactly uncommon. However, I don't really know how I'd edit the above. [/QUOTE]
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NCAA Tournament 2023 Thread
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