NCAA Tournament Bracket

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#276      
lstewart53x3
KenPom 6 vs 11 seed differential:

15 Missouri vs 58 Drake (+43)
20 Illinois vs 41 Xavier (+21)
24 BYU vs 31 VCU (+7)
26 Ole Miss vs 30 North Caroline (+4)

Michigan in a 5 vs 12 match up:

25 Michigan vs 37 UC San Diego (+12)

About as good of a draw as we could ask for.
 
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#278      
OrangeBlue98
Calvin said:
My bracket currently has 63 of 63 picks neither correct nor incorrect. A Schrodinger's bracket for the moment.
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Yes Yes Yes Nbc GIF by America's Got Talent
 
#281      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
First four is only for the 11/12 seeds (mostly power conference teams). They just play the 16 seeds on the first day - that doesn't qualify as "first four".
 
#282      
Fighter of the Nightman
One last look at the actual seeds vs. each team's NET Ranking for the top 6 seeds. So "on paper," it would have looked like this:

1 Seeds: #1-4
2 Seeds: #5-8
3 Seeds: #9-12
4 Seeds: #13-16
5 Seeds: #17-20
6 Seeds: #21-24

Obviously, the Committee will never seed the teams exactly like this ... but it's still an interesting exercise. In parentheses is how much higher a team's NET Ranking is than its overall seed ranking ... so theoretically, a positive number means that team was under-seeded.

Key
NET = 4+ higher
NET = within 3
NET = 4+ lower

1 Seeds
#2 Auburn (-1)
#1 Duke (+1)
#3 Houston (--)
#4 Florida (--)

2 Seeds
#5 Tennessee (--)
#6 Alabama (--)
#11 Michigan State (-4)
#13 St. John's (-5)

3 Seeds
#7 Texas Tech (+2)
#9 Iowa State (+1)
#14 Kentucky (-3)
#15 Wisconsin (-3)

4 Seeds
#18 Texas A&M (-5)
#19 Purdue (-5)
#10 Maryland (+5)
#12 Arizona (+4)

5 Seeds
#23 Michigan (-6)
#22 Clemson (-4)
#29 Oregon (-10)
#49 Memphis (-29)

6 Seeds
#25 BYU (-4)
#17 Illinois (+5)
#16 Missouri (+7)
#28 Ole Miss (-4)

So if you are a huge believer in the NET Rankings, the Illini are better than what you'd expect for a #6 seed and Kentucky (should we make it there) is slightly worse than you'd expect for a #3 seed!
 
#284      
Calvin
One thing that amuses me about the dance is seeing the following on KenPom.
Indiana, ranked 46, no number next to their name, no seed, and didn't make the dance at 19-13.
Page down several times near the bottom of all D1 teams and you get Saint Francis, ranked 310, with a 16 next to their name after winning the NEC tournament.

Madness
 
#285      
RollChief
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Not that we Illini fans need a reminder of this unfortunately, but it’s worth remembering that a #1 seed has gone down before the Sweet Sixteen in 7 of the last Tournaments! Underrated upset choice.

2024
N/A

2023
#16 FDU over #1 Purdue
#8 Arkansas over #1 Kandas

2022
#8 North Carolina over #1 Baylor

2021
#8 Loyola Chicago over #1 Illinois :(

2019
N/A

2018
#16 UMBC over #1 Virginia
#9 Florida State over #1 Xavier

2017
#8 Wisconsin over #1 Villanova

2016
N/A

2015
#8 NC State over #1 Villanova

2014
#8 Kentucky over #1 Wichita State
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Also a friendly reminder that before last year, Purdue's exits from the tournament for the next three years prior were as follows:

2023: #16 FDU over #1 Purdue
2022: #15 Saint Peter's over #3 Purdue
2021: #13 North Texas over #4 Purdue

A High Point victory today would have been very funny.
 
#286      
Illini4Chief
Right on point.....hoping some teams dont come up with another Conference, and solidify another spot.
 
#287      
BWBW
Purdue's win was the High Point of the day.
 
#289      
Fighter of the Nightman
RollChief said:
Also a friendly reminder that before last year, Purdue's exits from the tournament for the next three years prior were as follows:

2023: #16 FDU over #1 Purdue
2022: #15 Saint Peter's over #3 Purdue
2021: #13 North Texas over #4 Purdue

A High Point victory today would have been very funny.
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Yep, not that we could really talk THAT much, but it was hilarious to watch Purdue go through a 3-year period where they'd get a higher seed each year and then lost to a worse seed in each subsequent year! :ROFLMAO:
 
#290      
Fighter of the Nightman
Someone brought up our NCAAT history, and what is interesting is that we have mostly performed to expectations when we are good enough to get a #1 seed in the modern era (1985, when the Tournament expanded to its current format). Obviously something like the Loyola loss is a disappointment, but consider that a #1 seed has lost in the Second Round or before in 7 of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, and we have been a #1 seed four times:

ILLINI AS #1 SEED
1989 - Final Four
2001 - Elite Eight
2005 - National Championship Game
2021 - Second Round

So 75% of the time, we are at least in the Elite Eight, which I think is the baseline expectation for a #1 seed. Our record as a #3 seed includes two disappointing results in the 1980s (Austin Peay in the First Round in 1987 and Second Round in 1988), but we also made the Sweet Sixteen in 1985 and the Elite Eight in 2024 - the latter theoretically outperforming our seed. So all in all, in our 8 times as a top 3 seed, we have wound up in the Sweet Sixteen or better 6/8 times and the Elite Eight or better 4/8 times.

It's that #4/5 line that has absolutely CRUSHED our program's dreams more often than not, lol.

ILLINI AS #4 OR #5 SEED
1986 - Second Round loss to #5 seed
1990 - First Round loss to #12 seed
1998 - Second Round loss to #4 seed
2000 - Second Round loss to #5 seed
2002 - Sweet Sixteen loss to #1 seed (but beat #12 seed to get there)
2003 - Second Round loss to #5 seed
2004 - Sweet Sixteen loss to #1 seed
2006 - Second Round loss to #5 seed
2009 - First Round loss to #12 seed
2002 - Second Round loss to #5 seed

So in 10 tries a #4/5 seed, we have been stopped short of the Sweet Sixteen 8 out of those 10 times ... including a 1-6 record in the classic 4/5 Second Round matchup. 2004 is the only time in the modern era where we have wound up in a classic 4/5 Second Round game and actually won, as in 2002 we got to play the #12 seed after an upset. Call me superstitious, but I am totally traumatized by this draw, and I was so happy to be in the bottom half of the bracket and take our chances as a #6, haha.
 
#291      
RollChief
What an absolute nightmare to be #5 Clemson with a first-round game against the McNeese Swag Kings.
 
#293      
Big Jack
Look who filled out a bracket in the loyalty bracket.. Guess he does troll the board... bwahahahaha

Screenshot (897).png
 
#294      
Grandpa
Turn N’ Burn said:
Normally, I am pro Big Ten and want to see teams do well. However this year, I feel like there is a good chance all the teams are out by the sweet 16….I’m clearly bias but I think Illinois has the best path to prove me wrong!
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We only have to watch the games for the proof
 
#296      
WizardBill
lstewart53x3 said:
I understand why people choose to grade the season based on what happens in the NCAAT, I just refuse to do it—it’s way too flukey.

For context, the Matt Mayer season that everyone on this board complains about was a KenPom 30s team.

Here’s my (weird) way that I judge seasons:

How excited am I to tune into/attend each game?
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I’m in complete agreement with the above!
 
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