NCAA Tournament

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#276      
Agree. It's certainly a disappointment we missed out on the 2nd weekend again but I'm far less disappointed this year than last, and I think the transition to a post-Ayo team was never going to be as seemless as we wanted to believe. Tack on injuries and it was just an incredibly tough season and I think we were just out of gas as a team. And even so we hung with Houston for the majority of the game, and we get to hang a conference tournament banner.
Additionally, last years team seemed to be peaking going into the tournament. The performance against Loyola seemed like some kind of fever dream. Totally out of character.

Leading up to this tournament, we had not played well for a few weeks. We managed a couple of really ugly wins down the stretch, but it was clear things were not clicking.

Last year were were all talking Final Four/National Championship. This year were were hoping for sweet 16.
 
#277      
Lot of discussion about whether the B1G is underperforming, overperforming, or about average this year. Thought I'd contribute a bit more there.

Taking KenPom's tournament probabilities as the underlying data, it's rather easy to compute the probability distribution for total B1G wins in this year's tournament. That plot is below.

In terms of performance:
- The most likely outcome was 9 total wins
- The mean was almost exactly 10 total wins
- The most even "split point" was between 9 and 10 - a 47% chance of 0-9 wins, and a 53% chance of 10+ wins

Currently the conference has 9 wins, so if Purdue wins tonight I think you can say confidently that the B1G "met expectations" this year. If they make the Final Four, you can start to argue we exceeded expectations.

View attachment 16640

Nerd note - I did not take into account the restriction on outcomes from potential later-round matchups. Since B1G teams are all seeded at least two rounds away, this doesn't have a big impact. For example, just combining the distribution of # of wins for Michigan and OSU (a discrete convolution, if you're interested) isn't exactly correct, because it will include some impossible cases where both teams make the Elite Eight. Here's a plot of the error introduced by just convolving the two teams' pdfs without considering this restriction:

View attachment 16645

As you can see, the difference is a fraction of a percent. We under-predict the likelihood of 3-5 total wins, since these are scenarios where at least one team makes it to the 2nd weekend. But the net impact on our question (is the B1G underperforming?) is minimal.
Someone was paying attention in his classes! Interesting work Daniel.
 
#278      
Additionally, last years team seemed to be peaking going into the tournament. The performance against Loyola seemed like some kind of fever dream. Totally out of character.

Leading up to this tournament, we had not played well for a few weeks. We managed a couple of really ugly wins down the stretch, but it was clear things were not clicking.

Last year were were all talking Final Four/National Championship. This year were were hoping for sweet 16.
This is the truth. We didn't play great against Houston, but they likely would have won even if we had. They're that much better.

Last year's loss to LUC remains completely inexplicable. They didn't have one player who'd have started on our team.
 
#279      
RIP all those posters that said Houston was overrated because they hadn't beaten anybody.

We went down to a legit team. No shame in that. Hopefully the staff/players/program can learn something from the experience and come back stronger for it.
I was one of those posters. I clearly underestimated Houston but I don’t think the criticisms were too off base Even though Houston has since proved me wrong.

Houston has defeated the #2, 15, and 46 ranked team in the NET this tournament. Prior to the tournament their only Q1 win was against #33 Memphis, and they had lost all other Q1s against #24, 30, 33, 45.
 
#280      
I was one of those posters. I clearly underestimated Houston but I don’t think the criticisms were too off base Even though Houston has since proved me wrong.

Houston has defeated the #2, 15, and 46 ranked team in the NET this tournament. Prior to the tournament their only Q1 win was against #33 Memphis, and they had lost all other Q1s against #24, 30, 33, 45.
Yeah but if you dive into that a little more, 3 of those losses were by a combined 5 points to Wisconsin, Alabama (away) and SMU (away). And that's my problem with measuring teams based primarily on quad records. Three shots go differently and Houston is 4-1 against Q1 and probably a 2 seed, maybe an outside shot at a 1. Should three shots over the course of a season make the difference between a 2 seed and a 5?
 
#281      
I was one of those posters. I clearly underestimated Houston but I don’t think the criticisms were too off base Even though Houston has since proved me wrong.

Houston has defeated the #2, 15, and 46 ranked team in the NET this tournament. Prior to the tournament their only Q1 win was against #33 Memphis, and they had lost all other Q1s against #24, 30, 33, 45.
I was also critical of Houston, but it was more based on the hope that they would fold under pressure. They hadn't met much resistance in awhile. Obviously, that hope was misplaced. Those dudes are tough.
 
#283      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Yeah but if you dive into that a little more, 3 of those losses were by a combined 5 points to Wisconsin, Alabama (away) and SMU (away). And that's my problem with measuring teams based primarily on quad records. Three shots go differently and Houston is 4-1 against Q1 and probably a 2 seed, maybe an outside shot at a 1. Should three shots over the course of a season make the difference between a 2 seed and a 5?

For predictive purposes, totally agree with you. That said, one has to balance pure predictive metrics with the object of the game, which is to win (whether by 1 or by 41). You could make a case for either as regards the selection committee's process. Should the higher seeds (and thus, easier routes to a title) go to the teams that are expected to win the most, or the teams that have won the most? The Quad system is one of many possible blends of both, but leans towards the second option, with the main deviation from predictive rankings coming for teams with a lot of close Q1/Q2 wins (e.g., Wisconsin) or losses (e.g., Houston).
 
#284      
Agreed.
I got a chuckle out of this though.
There’s something mildly amusing about
Juan Howard, of all people…vouching for
Hunter Dickinson’s character. 😆
Lest anyone forget the Fab Five and The Booster at Michigan in the early 90s and how the Five fared during and after that scandal, even in this current March Madness, the media covered with glowing attention the presence of some members of the Fab Five in attendance at Michigan's games. Yet the 20+year AD of Michigan said those players "ruined" Michigan's basketball legacy.
 
#285      

Calillini

Now appearing in Tampa
Rooting for Arkansas over Duke bc I want to see Arkansas and Purdue.
 
#287      
I was also critical of Houston, but it was more based on the hope that they would fold under pressure. They hadn't met much resistance in awhile. Obviously, that hope was misplaced. Those dudes are tough.
Not being Pollyanna here. I believe Illinois at full strength would be right there with Houston. Injured Grandison and DMW with a crisis of confidence shooting wise made Illinois eminently beatable.
 
#288      

Tacomallini

Washington State
I just remember 2 pages with every other comment from bootsy arguing about how bad Houston was
I tend to read Bootsy posts (and a few others here on Loyalty) as if it's really Lewis Black.
Tonight Show Reaction GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 
#290      
Now that the Big 10 and it’s 9 teams are all eliminated, how would you rank the disappointment for each team. Here are mine:
1. Purdue- first time a 15 seed won a sweet 16 game.
2. Wisconsin- lost in the 2nd round in Milwaukee
3. Iowa- was so hot coming in and lost to an average Richmond
4. Michigan State- had Duke on the ropes
5. Indiana- Didn’t show up at all vs St Marys
6. Illinois- game went from 40-40 to a blowout. Shot so poorly
7. Rutgers- lost a classic vs ND. All they had to do was inbounds and make their free throws.
8. OSU- lost to a very good Villanova
9. Michigan- won two games as the lower seed
 
#292      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
Now that the Big 10 and it’s 9 teams are all eliminated, how would you rank the disappointment for each team. Here are mine:
1. Purdue- first time a 15 seed won a sweet 16 game.
2. Wisconsin- lost in the 2nd round in Milwaukee
3. Iowa- was so hot coming in and lost to an average Richmond
4. Michigan State- had Duke on the ropes
5. Indiana- Didn’t show up at all vs St Marys
6. Illinois- game went from 40-40 to a blowout. Shot so poorly
7. Rutgers- lost a classic vs ND. All they had to do was inbounds and make their free throws.
8. OSU- lost to a very good Villanova
9. Michigan- won two games as the lower seed
Iowa has to be #1 after many had them a favorite to make the final 4 as one of the hottest teams in the nation coming into the tourney.

I would go:

Iowa
Wisconsin - 3 seed, 2nd round loss
illinois - 4 seed, 2nd round loss
Purdue - made the sweet 16, lost to a 15 seed
Indiana
MSU
Rutgers
OSU
Michigan
 
#295      
All four high seed Big Ten team except for us lost to double-digit seeds. It seems that we had a relatively decent tournament now.
Let's not sugar coat things to feel better. We flat out escaped vs Chattanooga (led for only 25 seconds) and we got run off the floor in the 2nd half versus Houston. It's ok to be critical at this point. We didn't play relatively decent. We were sub par, as was the rest of the conference outside of Michigan (that hurt to say).
 
#297      
Agreed.
I got a chuckle out of this though.
There’s something mildly amusing about
Juan Howard, of all people…vouching for
Hunter Dickinson’s character. 😆
He is the epitome of the "Michigan Man". Vanishes under pressure and reverts to bragging and boasting. Champions let their game say it all. He can't avoid sticking his foot in his mouth.
 
#298      
How about calling travel again when they take a step before dribbling! Drives me bananas to see someone catch the ball and take a step or 2 without dribbling, pause and analyze the D then make a move. Im with you, the game needs cleaned up. Even if it does take away some "flash"
What officiating is missing when allowing 4 steps or carrying the ball on almost every dribble is that the game is not comparable. Sure, athletes can do amazing things when the rules are ignored, but it sure limits skill development that guys like Bob Cousy and Oscar Robertson worked hard to perfect....and did. I love what the game has become because it has put the skill of putting the ball in the net from anywhere paramount to success. Making players learn to dribble and move without traveling would do no harm to the game at all...the players would just have to learn and they would do so quickly.
 
#299      
Yeah but if you dive into that a little more, 3 of those losses were by a combined 5 points to Wisconsin, Alabama (away) and SMU (away). And that's my problem with measuring teams based primarily on quad records. Three shots go differently and Houston is 4-1 against Q1 and probably a 2 seed, maybe an outside shot at a 1. Should three shots over the course of a season make the difference between a 2 seed and a 5?
That’s a good point, and I recognize the purpose of the metrics like kenpom which Houston excelled at.

I’m also a Gonzaga hater who thinks they’re gaming the system by playing both a terribly weak non-con and conference schedule, but adding a couple highly promoted non-con games to trick people into thinking they’re playing a tougher schedule than they are. They rate highly in the metrics like Houston but can’t win against high seeds in the tournament unlike Houston.

For reference, Gonzaga has won 5 games all time against the top 4 seeds (top 16 teams).

Their wins from elite 8 tourney seasons:
2021 - 16, 8, 5, 6, 11
2019 - 16, 9, 4
2017 - 16, 8, 4, 11, 7
2015 - 15, 7, 11
1999 - 7, 2, 6
 
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