Nothing is likely to happen in major conference realignment until rights deals expire & this is the sort of stuff that makes it more likely if the SEC is trying to pry someone loose.
So that's fair, I don't disagree that near the expiration might work, I would argue that was the "likely to happen..." in my post.The Big 12’s grant of rights agreement runs through June of 2025. So, just one football season past the expiration of the SEC’s deal with CBS.
Those grant of rights deals are less painful as time passes. Only one football season left wouldn’t be enough to stop the SEC from gobbling up - for example - Texas and Oklahoma if a new television contract made it worthwhile.