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Northwestern 42, Illinois 7 POSTGAME
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<blockquote data-quote="sbillini" data-source="post: 1353715" data-attributes="member: 10496"><p>Thanks for putting that together Ransom. I thought about doing so based on a similar conversation going on the JW talks illini football thread, but just didn't have the time. </p><p></p><p>NERD ALERT!</p><p>So taking those results (excl 11 win prediction), you have a weighted average prediction of ~4.2 wins. With the two our result was about ~.61 standard deviation below that. I'd argue that's fairly material. Granted fairly small sample size and injuries play a role. But I'd argue there's at least some revisionism of expectations going on. Not egregious (and I'd say not unnatural), but I'd say there is some. </p><p></p><p>Ultimately, to me, things are behind track, but not off the rails. I was thinking ~4 wins myself, but the fact that Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers made the strides they did relative to us is what surprised me.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="sbillini, post: 1353715, member: 10496"] Thanks for putting that together Ransom. I thought about doing so based on a similar conversation going on the JW talks illini football thread, but just didn't have the time. NERD ALERT! So taking those results (excl 11 win prediction), you have a weighted average prediction of ~4.2 wins. With the two our result was about ~.61 standard deviation below that. I'd argue that's fairly material. Granted fairly small sample size and injuries play a role. But I'd argue there's at least some revisionism of expectations going on. Not egregious (and I'd say not unnatural), but I'd say there is some. Ultimately, to me, things are behind track, but not off the rails. I was thinking ~4 wins myself, but the fact that Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers made the strides they did relative to us is what surprised me. [/QUOTE]
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Northwestern 42, Illinois 7 POSTGAME
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