Pregame: Illinois at Indiana, Saturday, September 20th, 6:30pm CT, NBC

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#226      
Curbelo Fanboy
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Unfortunately, the opposite is the problem - we became feeble decades ago, and way too many of our fans have like a psychological attachment to expecting the worst! Being overconfident is annoying for sure, but man ... our fans should have a bit more swagger at this point!
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I can speak to this as a longtime fan. In my 50's now & started attending games in the mid 90's in time for the end of the Tepper era. Father in law had season tickets for many years & I have had them off & on since so have watched pretty closely for a long time.

There have been a few times where this program has had expectations of success since then & each time they have met those expectations with a collective crapping of the pants. Success has been met with a virtually immediate collapse back to the middle (or more likely worse than that).

For a long long time, every positive development was followed shortly thereafter with a negative development. This has created a fanbase that is skittish, cynical & looking around every corner for the oncoming train. It takes time to fully disengage from that thought process.
 
#228      
RabidDawgClassic
IlliniFanTX said:
Wait, is this a real take?
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Dkayak said:
Wait . . . how does this make any sense?
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Fly Illini Fly! said:
Good lordie.
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IMG_4643.jpeg
 
#230      
illinoisfootball
Curbelo Fanboy said:
I can speak to this as a longtime fan. In my 50's now & started attending games in the mid 90's in time for the end of the Tepper era. Father in law had season tickets for many years & I have had them off & on since so have watched pretty closely for a long time.

There have been a few times where this program has had expectations of success since then & each time they have met those expectations with a collective crapping of the pants. Success has been met with a virtually immediate collapse back to the middle (or more likely worse than that).

For a long long time, every positive development was followed shortly thereafter with a negative development. This has created a fanbase that is skittish, cynical & looking around every corner for the oncoming train. It takes time to fully disengage from that thought process.
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I think this is very true, a loss at Indiana isn't going to help.
 
#231      
rdk573
Illini2010-11 said:
I do not think Vegas has any idea what to do with Illinois related to the spread. Illinois covered the spread by double digits in each of the last two games, and the first game was only a slight cover because the line was insanely large.

Add into the fact that IU completely destroyed their spreads as well, I think there is massive uncertainly in the spread. I think the spread will eventually settle where it should...around +2.5 Illinois (meaning the teams are evenly matched with IU getting the home field advantage).
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I should have better said that Vegas isn't sold on us either.. As others have said the next two games against Indiana and USC will tell a lot about our team..
 
#234      
RabidDawgClassic
rdk573 said:
I should have better said that Vegas isn't sold on us either.. As others have said the next two games against Indiana and USC will tell a lot about our team..
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Vegas sets their lines based on what they think the bettors will think. The bookmakers might personally believe Illinois will win by 30, but if they also believe the bettors think Indiana will win by 3, that’s where they’ll set the line. Then adjust accordingly as the bets come in, naturally.
 
#235      
SuperMetroid
RabidDawgClassic said:
Gonna be tough to beat Indiana. Despite playing a very weak schedule, they’ve shredded their opponents, both on offense and defense. They’ve looked practically perfect through twelve quarters of play. Cignetti has them playing at an extremely high level and their confidence is off the charts.

Meanwhile, we’ve struggled to get the motor started in each of our three games with the offensive line looking pedestrian for the majority of the three. We won’t be able to wait until the second half to get going against a a disciplined, high-flying team like Indiana. They’ll slice and dice us like we’re Grambling State if we aren’t prepared from the get go.

Sadly, I see this getting out of hand early with the Hoosiers being nearly unstoppable.

52-10 Hoosiers.
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:unsure: Our worst loss in the BB era was last year against a wildly talented Oregon team that beat O$U, and it was only by 29 points.
I think the worst game we've played under BB was at Purdue in 2023 and that was only a 25 point loss. Indinia may very well beat us but 52-10 would be a ridiculous outlier.
 
#237      
Dkayak
RabidDawgClassic said:
Vegas sets their lines based on what they think the bettors will think. The bookmakers might personally believe Illinois will win by 30, but if they also believe the bettors think Indiana will win by 3, that’s where they’ll set the line. Then adjust accordingly as the bets come in, naturally.
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OK, thanks. That’s helpful but leads to the same conclusion. The betters driving the Vegas spread lack credibility when dealing with Illinois. So why do we have our shorts in a knot over the spread when we consistently “over-cover” it so substantially?

If you adjust for “spread error” these past 3 games, wouldn’t the small spread suggest we’re actually favored over IU? Isn’t that what the numbers objectively suggest? Why the despair?
 
#238      
sacraig
LvilleILL1 said:
When did this fanbase become so feeble? We have what it takes to beat IU. Based on what I am reading on here we are playing the 85 Bears, it's crazy.
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Was this fan base ever not feeble? We've had half a century of almost half a century of uniformly bad football, so some of use expect Lucy to pull the ball out from under us at any moment.
 
#244      
Fighter of the Nightman
SuperMetroid said:
:unsure: Our worst loss in the BB era was last year against a wildly talented Oregon team that beat O$U, and it was only by 29 points.
I think the worst game we've played under BB was at Purdue in 2023 and that was only a 25 point loss. Indinia may very well beat us but 52-10 would be a ridiculous outlier.
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I think Purdue 2023 is an EXCELLENT choice, lol, but it's worth noting that it was a 3-point game in the third quarter before the wheels inexplicably fell off ... similar story to Virginia 2021, where we were down 7 in the third quarter before totally collapsing. I think the only games under BB where we just straight-up were never really in it were Wisconsin 2021 (UW didn't go up three scores until the third quarter, but we were NEVER threatening to even put a point on the board...) and 2024 Oregon. We've been very blessed to have very rarely seen this program just get punched in the mouth since Bret got here.

Let's go punch Indinia in the mouth!
 
#245      
Dan
NBC: Noah Eagle (pbp), Todd Blackledge (color), Kathryn Tappen (sideline)


This is the first Top 20 matchup (#9 at #19) at Indiana's Memorial Stadium since Oct. 20, 1987 when No. 15 Indiana defeated No. 20 Michigan, 14-10.


Fun fact- the 2 schools disagree on the all-time series record.

According to IL- Illinois holds a 46-25-3 lead in the all-time series
According to IU- Illinois leading the series, 46-26-2

Indiana claims the 1931 zero-zero tie as a victory because, according to IU: "Game awarded to IU on first down margin (8-4)".


#9 Illinois Opens Big Ten Play at #19 Indiana (fightingillini.com)
FOOTBALL GAMEDAY: Illinois (Week 4) (iuhoosiers.com)
IL FB Record Book (fightingillini.com)
IU FB Record Book (iuhoosiers.com)
 
#247      
gecIllini
Mr. Tibbs said:
Vegas makes 100% from the losers & 10% from the winners every friggin week . A friggin recipe to make millions

it’s like owning a casino ………
wait , it is a casino
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Not to correct you, but I will correct you....Vegas does not make 10% from winners. If you bet $110 to win $100, when you win you collect $210.
 
#248      
Mr. Tibbs
gecIllini said:
Not to correct you, but I will correct you....Vegas does not make 10% from winners. If you bet $110 to win $100, when you win you collect $210.
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you are correct
I tried over simplifying it

the vig is built into the payout/risk
winners & losers both bet 110 to win 100.
they keep 100% if the losers
and payout 100 on a 110 bet

techically, you are more correct , but we really said the same thing
 
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#250      
FlotownIllini
I've had this one pegged as a loss (in my mind) for a while now. The fact that it's a night game reinforced that gut feeling. The important thing to remember is that a loss in this game wouldn't mean the end of anything, and could even prove to be a good thing for the team, in the big picture.

If the Illini do go in and snag a victory in a hostile environment like this, it will be mighty impressive. They are certainly capable of it, but it will require a corner to be turned on a couple key areas of weakness which have stood out in the last two games. Again, I fully believe we have the coaches and players necessary to accomplish that task, but it is a question of "will they?"

This Indiana team is legitimately very good. Do not kid yourselves on this point. As long as we don't get our tails whipped, a road loss here does not derail the season at all. As others have pointed out, getting truly boat-raced has been a rare occurrence, so I'm hopeful that trend continues.

Will be cheering and hoping for an awesome showing and a huge win for the Beloved, no matter what. I-L-L!
 
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