Pregame: Illinois at Iowa, Saturday, November 18th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

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#301      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
I don’t see Luke or his father issuing an ultimatum to BB, ( he can’t be eligible next year anyway if did transfer ) and if players or families ever did , you say goodbye &wish them well . they simply don’t seem like those kind of people

this will all sort itself out in the next 3 days in a good way , imo

Luke is not finished starting for us .
this Sat ? who knows . not sure BB knows yet
 
#302      

Birdus

B
Birdus
Illini2010-11 said:
Don't get me wrong, I think Paddock has played great in his opportunities the last game + 1 drive, but this is exactly accurate. Coach B has to put the team in the best position to win, and I really do not see Paddock as giving the Illini the best chance to win.

Now if Altmyer is not 100% ready to go, then I would agree that Paddock has to start. The problem for me is that many are seeing the record breaking performance last week as empirical evidence that Paddock is the best QB on the team right now and who to play, but a lot of that is because of having plenty of time to throw the ball and receivers streaking open across the field (this has happened consistently with QB's making their first start against the Illini defense the last decade or so). I truly believe that Altymer would have done close to the same thing last week against Indiana given their woeful defensive approach. This does not take anything away from Paddock's performance at all. He has performed admirably, and should be ready to come in should things go South quickly on Saturday.

Given the defense that Illini are about to see on Saturday, Paddock is due for a regression to the mean game (he was not exactly lighting up the world at Ball State last year when he played every week). I think that Altmyer's legs might be the difference maker when the pocket inevitably collapses consistently on Saturday, and he has actually been performing at a high level pre-injury. By starting Altmyer, the Illini are also able to preserve the legend of Paddock.
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Indiana's defense is worse than ours.
 
#303      

Birdus

B
Birdus
When I look back to the Maryland game, I see all phases working together. We played complimentary football and stayed ahead of the sticks. We had fewer penalties and bonehead plays. Has to be that way Sunday for us to win. We are going to have to play field position football and get a few big plays and a turnover if possible. If we turn over the ball and our secondary gives away a big play or two, we are dead in the water.
 
#305      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
CAIllini said:
Wow, this really surprises me if true. Maybe this is a fake-out move for Iowa. Agree with AutoPoster that if true, and it backfires, this decision could really haunt Bielema...
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SuperintendentChalmers said:
You lose the locker room if Paddock doesn't start.
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This is what I want to avoid. There isn't a single post where Bielema had to make judgement calls on starting Strain or Tobe, Barnes or Rosiek, Bush or Harper. Even if we did, people wouldn't have acted like these decisions were going to have severe consequences on Bielema's legacy or team morale. I get that this is the starting quarterback and the stakes for this choice are greater, but this isn't even like the previous ones where a decision to replace a starter was predicated on the established starter playing poorly.

Altmyer has shown to be the best B1G West QB this year by PFF and other metrics. Paddock just had the best game + change stretch of any Illinois QB ever. We shouldn't be punishing ourselves or our favorite program because good performances are creating a challenging choice.
 
#308      

Birdus

B
Birdus
CAIllini said:
Wow, this really surprises me if true. Maybe this is a fake-out move for Iowa. Agree with AutoPoster that if true, and it backfires, this decision could really haunt Bielema...

Just doesn't make sense to me on multiple levels. A faster release for JP improves the OL efficiency, safer health-wise to hold LA post concussion, epic last game from JP with fan & likely player support [what must IW think given their chemistry] & program momentum, both likely go struggle against Iowa regardless so JP->LA is a much easier shift at halftime than LA->JP which disrupts the rest of the season and maybe next year in our transfer world.

At some point Bret has to remember that he is CEO of an entertainment business masquerading as amateur sport, and optics rule the world in today's day and age. The optics here are heavily in the opposite direction from everything we're hearing out of media and fans, and what I've seen with my own eyes over the last two weeks.

If he goes with Luke it's a ballsy move so kudos to him if truly feels that's the best path football-wise...certainly not the safe/easy/popular decision from the comfortable view of our couches. On the flipside, I suppose that's what great leaders do when they have a strong belief in a decision despite headwinds.

We'll see what really happens Saturday, I'm not convinced he's showing all his cards just yet.

Regardless, it's so fun to be on a winning streak and still have these football things to talk about and not be 100% basketball focused by this time on the calendar!

Now let's just beat Iowa and not have this all diverge into dramaville....Go Illini.
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It would be nice to start them out against their own goal line. If we can win the field position battle and not commit any turnovers, that would give us a chance. They are just so solid in special teams.
 
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#309      

skyIdub

skyIdub
Winged Warrior
skyIdub
Sorry, not buying the "it was just Indiana defense".....

Vs Indiana Defense:

Kyle McCord OSU 20-33 239 1int
Evan Olaes IN St 3-9 21 1 int wtaf
Jack Plummer LOU13-23 238 1TD 1 int
DJ Irons Akron 22-35 194 2 int
Taulia Tagovailoa MD 24-34 352 5 TD the only one even remotely close
JJ McCarthy scUM 14-17 222 3 TD
Gavin Wimsatt RU 5-12 39 seriously
Drew Allar PU 20-31 210 3 TD 1 int
Braeden Locke 21-41 243 2 TD
John MF Paddock 24-36 507 4 TD 1 int

bigbird-one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-others.gif
 
#310      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
skyIdub said:
Sorry, not buying the "it was just Indiana defense".....

Vs Indiana Defense:

Kyle McCord OSU 20-33 239 1int
Evan Olaes IN St 3-9 21 1 int wtaf
Jack Plummer LOU13-23 238 1TD 1 int
DJ Irons Akron 22-35 194 2 int
Taulia Tagovailoa MD 24-34 352 5 TD the only one even remotely close
JJ McCarthy scUM 14-17 222 3 TD
Gavin Wimsatt RU 5-12 39 seriously
Drew Allar PU 20-31 210 3 TD 1 int
Braeden Locke 21-41 243 2 TD
John MF Paddock 24-36 507 4 TD 1 int

bigbird-one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-others.gif
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And not to make excuses for our boy John, but that was one of the weirdest, flukiest interceptions I have ever seen, let alone once we consider how well he's played otherwise!
 
#311      

altgeld88

altgeld88
Arlington, Virginia
altgeld88
Birdus said:
When I look back to the Maryland game, I see all phases working together. We played complimentary football and stayed ahead of the sticks. We had fewer penalties and bonehead plays. Has to be that way Sunday for us to win. We are going to have to play field position football and get a few big plays and a turnover if possible. If we turn over the ball and our secondary gives away a big play or two, we are dead in the water.
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I see it a bit differently. We got quite lucky defensively in the MD game. Taulia had wide open receivers for long TDs and overthrew them twice. And they had a big PF penalty that sustained our end-of-half drive and enabled the TD before halftime. Their run game slashed us repeatedly and their screen passes with two receivers setting picks for the third worked regularly, too. On offense, our drives stalled regularly in the second half. I sat in the stands thinking often to myself that we were lucky still to be even or slightly ahead. We could easily have lost by 3 TDs. Not taking anything away from the effort the boys made to bear down and pull out a win on the road. It was a bit ugly, however.
 
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#313      

Jimbo

J
Jimbo
illinoistradition said:
As much as I don't fully agree with the decision, Bret continues to impress with his ability to phrase things well. "Starters don't lose their jobs to injury" is a great point. We don't know how the games would have played out with Luke in there, just like we don't know how earlier games this year would have played out with Paddock. It's time to stop comparing beginning of the year Luke and Oline to late season John and Oline. That's just not a fair comparison in a number of ways.
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I think we had a pretty good comparison in the minnesota game.

But that’s ok. Let’s beat em with Luke.
 
#314      

Leelnd

L
Leelnd
Illini2010-11 said:
Don't get me wrong, I think Paddock has played great in his opportunities the last game + 1 drive, but this is exactly accurate. Coach B has to put the team in the best position to win, and I really do not see Paddock as giving the Illini the best chance to win.

Now if Altmyer is not 100% ready to go, then I would agree that Paddock has to start. The problem for me is that many are seeing the record breaking performance last week as empirical evidence that Paddock is the best QB on the team right now and who to play, but a lot of that is because of having plenty of time to throw the ball and receivers streaking open across the field (this has happened consistently with QB's making their first start against the Illini defense the last decade or so). I truly believe that Altymer would have done close to the same thing last week against Indiana given their woeful defensive approach. This does not take anything away from Paddock's performance at all. He has performed admirably, and should be ready to come in should things go South quickly on Saturday.

Given the defense that Illini are about to see on Saturday, Paddock is due for a regression to the mean game (he was not exactly lighting up the world at Ball State last year when he played every week). I think that Altmyer's legs might be the difference maker when the pocket inevitably collapses consistently on Saturday, and he has actually been performing at a high level pre-injury. By starting Altmyer, the Illini are also able to preserve the legend of Paddock.
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Wow an actual rational consideration.
 
#315      

Mr. Tibbs

Mr. Tibbs
southeast DuPage
Mr. Tibbs
Leelnd said:
Oh I didn't realize that Paddock is the next Tom Brady.
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we don’t know that now

but Belichek didn’t know Brady was the next Tom Brady when Bledsoe went down either

i’m fine whoever starts at qb , and I said that last week when it was looking like Luke was going to miss the game .

we can win with either .
 
#318      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
skyIdub said:
Sorry, not buying the "it was just Indiana defense".....

Vs Indiana Defense:

Kyle McCord OSU 20-33 239 1int
Evan Olaes IN St 3-9 21 1 int wtaf
Jack Plummer LOU13-23 238 1TD 1 int
DJ Irons Akron 22-35 194 2 int
Taulia Tagovailoa MD 24-34 352 5 TD the only one even remotely close
JJ McCarthy scUM 14-17 222 3 TD
Gavin Wimsatt RU 5-12 39 seriously
Drew Allar PU 20-31 210 3 TD 1 int
Braeden Locke 21-41 243 2 TD
John MF Paddock 24-36 507 4 TD 1 int
Click to expand...

Paddock had the best QB performance against Indiana, there's no doubt. That said, we do not need to prop up Indiana's defense by showing a small sliver of details in the hopes of proving they were good. This is lacking a lot of context.

Some of these QBs (McCord, McCarthy, Allar) had their teams winning comfortably so they stopped throwing the ball. Louisville was thrashing Indiana by running the ball (184 rushing yards) and built a big first half lead. Indiana State sucks and we shouldn't compare our team to theirs.

That leaves Irons, Wimsatt, and Locke. Irons and Wimsatt didn't throw it well but they epically destroyed Indiana by running. Irons had 140+ rushing yards and two rushing TDs, giving him over 330 total yards. I watched this game, he was gashing Indiana at will. Irons hurt his knee later in the season but his rushing against Indiana was 60% of his season rushing production. Wimsatt did the same, 140+ rushing yards in a comfortable win. Rutgers stopped throwing the ball because they had a comfortable lead. Locke stinks so far, but his best QB rating game? Against Indiana. When factoring in rushing (removing sacks), six QBs have put up 300+ total offense against Indiana. That's not a good defense. Again, this isn't taking anything away from Paddock. Paddock doesn't scramble, so the rushing value wasn't really an option. So he destroyed them through the air. But we don't need to act like the Indiana defense is good. It's a bad defense. They've proven it all year against a variety of opponents.
 
#319      

SuperintendentChalmers

SuperintendentChalmers
SuperintendentChalmers
mhuml32 said:
This is what I want to avoid. There isn't a single post where Bielema had to make judgement calls on starting Strain or Tobe, Barnes or Rosiek, Bush or Harper. Even if we did, people wouldn't have acted like these decisions were going to have severe consequences on Bielema's legacy or team morale. I get that this is the starting quarterback and the stakes for this choice are greater, but this isn't even like the previous ones where a decision to replace a starter was predicated on the established starter playing poorly.

Altmyer has shown to be the best B1G West QB this year by PFF and other metrics. Paddock just had the best game + change stretch of any Illinois QB ever. We shouldn't be punishing ourselves or our favorite program because good performances are creating a challenging choice.
Click to expand...
My comment might have been a bit too blunt. My issue isn’t so much with Luke, but the “Starters don’t lose their jobs here because of injury” explanation. The starter should be the player who gives you the best chance to win, period. If you happened to realize that the backup was better because the starter got hurt, so be it.

Once you open up your reasoning beyond the player who gives you the best chance to win, other players notice and might start wondering what other factors are going into playing time decisions. Future seasons? Promises made during recruiting? If BB had just come out and said, “John’s been amazing over the last game-plus, but Luke is cleared and starting because he gives us the best chance to win,” I’d disagree, but could definitely be wrong and would have no problem with BB’s handling of it.
 
#321      

WeWillWhen

WeWillWhen
WeWillWhen
thefalcon5 said:
Feel like this is all going to be moot when we only throw it 15 times and rush it 40.

The real crux to this game feels like if griffin can be as close to perfect as possible. He’s been far from great this year.
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Nah, to beat Iowa, the Illini need to play “clean” — few or no turnovers, and few penalties. Which, honestly, I don’t think this squad is capable of doing.
 
#322      

Leelnd

L
Leelnd
Icy veins said:
Nobody thought Tom Brady would be the first Tom Brady 🤷‍♂️
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Yeah And Drew Bledsoe almost died and was out for several weeks which allowed for Tom to have a longer body of work to compare against.

I'm not the one that brought up the comparison.
 
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