Pregame: Illinois at Michigan State, Saturday, February 10th, 1:00pm CT, CBS

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#227      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
My criticism the past month is that, while our shooting has seemed fairly solid (all those missed bunnies and finishes at the hole aside) our defense has not, and we've allowed opponents to shoot well.

Did a quick calc of the eFG% the past several games. The Maryland game was our only poor shooting performance (IU wasn't great, either). Yet only Rutgers, which has by far the worst offense in the BT, fared poorly shooting against us. We're playing soft D and that's what worries me for March.

ILL 48% NEB 51%
ILL 58% OSU 53%
ILL 43% IU 46%
ILL 48% NW 63%
ILL 56% RUT 40%
ILL 53% MICH 50%
ILL 38% MD 49%
I spit this out last evening at the end of a long day. The follow-on is that, as our brother @Piotyr helpfully notes regularly via his EM postings on the BT (https://www.illinoisloyalty.com/post/games-thread.33610/post-2011617) what matters is our pts per possession (PPP) compared with our opponents' points per possession and the net efficiency measure (EM.)

On that matter, we're doing well, which apparently overcomes our poor shooting defense for now. For now, he said, with hope in his heart. ;) :illinois:

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#230      
MSU opens as a 2.5 favorite.
I know MSU is at home and desperate and the Illini only won by 3 at home...but TSJ was gone. Doesn't that change the dynamics of match ups? What position is MSU better?
 
#231      
Unless someone being out we are getting punked by Vegas +3

Not good...

But we control our Narrative
 
#232      
I spit this out last evening at the end of a long day. The follow-on is that, as our brother @Piotyr helpfully notes regularly via his EM postings on the BT (https://www.illinoisloyalty.com/post/games-thread.33610/post-2011617) what matters is our pts per possession (PPP) compared with our opponents' points per possession and the net efficiency measure (EM.)

On that matter, we're doing well, which apparently overcomes our poor shooting defense for now. For now, he said, with hope in his heart. ;) :illinois:

View attachment 30977
The thing Illinois does at an elite level offensively is shot volume. Even when they aren't shooting well, they're such a good rebounding team that they get multiple chances per offensive trip.
 
#235      

derrick6

Illini Dawg
Seattle
But it takes time for the offensive players to get into that space when they begin out-of-bounds on the baseline. The inbounder has five seconds to get the ball in. If players are stacked parallel to the upper portion of the paint, they are in space within one second of breaking, and can set picks quickly or disperse. If they start on the baseline, they use up at least two seconds getting to a position where the ball can reach them, maybe 3. The time limit in itself makes it completely dissimilar to football. Seems to me that it's much less useful, and much more likely to fail.

@illini0440, thanks for the Yahoo article. I skimmed it quickly. Will go back and read it thoroughly when I have time.
It’s seems like a ridiculous play unless you are setting a pick.

But why do they all go out of bounds? I’ve seen no example of tossing the ball to a different inbounder where it matters.
 
#238      
I always look at the beginning of the game if we hit our free throws early. Win this game will go a long way into the next week. Go Illini.
 
#239      
Maybe the long break between games will allow players to shoot a lot and get right while BU and team scheme some new offense. We are bigger at every position besides center but Sissoko doesn’t scare me.
 
#240      
I spit this out last evening at the end of a long day. The follow-on is that, as our brother @Piotyr helpfully notes regularly via his EM postings on the BT (https://www.illinoisloyalty.com/post/games-thread.33610/post-2011617) what matters is our pts per possession (PPP) compared with our opponents' points per possession and the net efficiency measure (EM.)

On that matter, we're doing well, which apparently overcomes our poor shooting defense for now. For now, he said, with hope in his heart. ;) :illinois:

View attachment 30977
Nice chart. The MSU game is very important. Would love to see a win up there; let's put more daylight between us and the Badgers.
 
#243      
We are now a 4 point dog
I like it!!!

I'm taking the 4 and the ML
Every Joe thinks MSU really needs this game and will win. Vegas loves those narratives

ILL - 75-70
 
#246      
ok a rational look at this game

Michigan St is playing for their tournament lives, they are currently 2-7 in quad 1 games with few chances left and directly on the bubble.

Illinois is playing for a 2 or 3 seed and to get back in form for a deep tournament run.

I think Illinois needs to get up early and keep a double digit lead for the majority of the game and break them. If it is a close game back in forth, I think the home court (ref's & MSU in the dance $$), will make it tough to win. It'd be nice to be the L that they look at that kept them out of the dance.

Go Illini, show them they can't hang. Illinois W 84-69
 
#247      
I think MSU is pretty bad. If we rebound, make layups & get back in transition we should win this one. We own their senior class.
I feel like their players play well some games, others fade, but in different games; inconsistent. Which might be why they Sometimes they blow out opponents, other times they lose a head scratcher.
Shannon didn’t play in The first matchup. Hopefully bodes well for Illini.
 
#248      
Very True. I'm still mad about the swinging karate chop/punch that connected on Ayo a few years back.
Haha exactly what I was alluding to. The circumstances around that game were uncannily similar to this one.

Illinois entered both games with 5 losses and in the top 10 of the AP poll.

MSU entered both games with 9 losses and desperately needed to win for their tournament resume.

Both games were in East Lansing in February.

Illinois entered both games on a winning streak - 3 games this year and 7 games in 2021.

Hoping for a different outcome. I think there's no question we're the better team but a desperate Izzo at the Breslin Center and his posse of officials is hard to beat.
 
#249      
Very True. I'm still mad about the swinging karate chop/punch that connected on Ayo a few years back.

Well and if memory serves the Ayo hit wasn’t an isolated incident but a culmination of physical play the refs let go. I remember several instances of Illini taking exception to an overly physical foul and near dust ups. I expect more of the same today.
 
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