Pregame: Illinois at Nebraska, Thursday, January 30th, 7:30pm CT, FS1

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#176      
Vinegarben
The only thing good about Tomi being out again is that Rez is getting some big-time experience. Other than the Mayland game where nobody guarded any of the Terps Rez has played pretty well. Should help down the road. But we need Tomi to get back in rhythm before we play Scum and Purdue. I think the Illini struggle once again tonight but manage to eek out a close one at the end. I look for Dra and Will to step up with Jake scoring a couple of big 3's. Illini-81 Nebby-77
 
#177      
hodgesonfire
RML said:
Please please let us take the right ones, and not have the wrong guys taking questionable ones.
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I see a big difference on this team between catch and shoot and dribble and shoot 3s (KJ may be the exception).

Not sure what the percentages are, but when they have time to settle their bodies before shooting it appears like everyone has good mechanics and can hit a fairly high percentage.

It’s why I think quick ball movement and good passes will be very important in this game. One area I think KJ can improve is hitting his teammates shooting pocket on passes. A lot of times his passes get them the ball but they must reach down or to the side to pull it in allowing the defenders time to recover making the shot much harder.
 
#178      
RockfordIllini
RML said:
Please please let us take the right ones, and not have the wrong guys taking questionable ones.
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I could be off on this, but my eye test tells me something like 75% of the 3’s we take are the right ones, where after we miss the shot I say “I’m good with that look.” I don’t feel like the problem is too much chucking for lack of a better term.

We’ve shot 26% since Oregon and I think we are something like 17th in league play in 3 pt %, while leading the league in attempts. I just feel like we have to hit a positive regression at some point. If we were middle of the pack in % I think we’d be darn near unbeatable.

Let’s hope it starts tonight.
 
#180      
thefalcon5
Brosky said:
Just beat Nebraska. It's a "true" road game, so it won't be easy. I expect DGL to come up big. And Jake Davis too--I think he's earned more minutes.
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Jake’s biggest blocker to playing time is defense. He might be the worst on the team straight up.

Absolutely love his offensive game, but he’s brutally defensively.
 
#181      
RML
RockfordIllini said:
I could be off on this, but my eye test tells me something like 75% of the 3’s we take are the right ones, where after we miss the shot I say “I’m good with that look.” I don’t feel like the problem is too much chucking for lack of a better term.
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I agree... Of course those ill-advised few are particularly maddening in a tight game. I'll try to maintain composure tonight when one goes up, just please keep that number down.
 
#183      
pruman91
Another chance for a true Quad 1 roadkill win to help keep our NET ranking at a top ten level....................our key defensively will be to limit the offensive opportunities of Brice Williams and baby faced Connor Essegian from the 3 point area.......

Brice Williams can go off for 30 + points or disappear for stretches of the game.....usually has a good game if he starts hot.....
Connor Essegian has had a better season at nebby than at bucky due to increased playing time......shoots the 3 with quick release...
Juwan Gary is a capable player on the physical side around the rim and occasionally from beyond the arc......
Braxton Meah is a 7'1" odd looking big who scores mainly on dunks and putbacks........
Andrew Morgan is a big with skills..............rebounds well and has good moves in the paint......foul prone....
Rollie Worster is their PG who just loves to dribble and then dribble some more.....turnover prone...........
Sam Hoiberg plays above his small frame and shouldn't be overlooked.........
Berke B!@#$%^&* is a big lefty Turk transfer from Croninville who can be a pain to play against but isn't steady..........

I have watched around 10 of nebbys games and they are tough at home but their achilles heel , to me , is continuity of effort by all players.....they tend to hang their heads a lot if they have a drought on offense and conversely it hurts their defensive effort and attitude........

I would hazard a guess of..............

Illini 80
nebby 73

We have superior talent even with Tomi out.....as usual it boils down to if our shots are dropping or not.........I hope KB does more driving and dishing than shooting 3's........

LET'S GO ILLINI........................
 
#184      
From the cheap seats
Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. The Illini currently are #2 in the nation with a 57.3% rebound percentage, behind only St. Mary's at 57.6%. Nebraska is #137 at 51.1%. With Tomi out, the percentage has dipped to 54.3 the past three games (#46 in the country the past three games).
In particular, offensive rebounding. The Illini are #15 in the nation, getting 35.7% of their missed shots. Nebraska is #75 in defensive rebounding at 74.6%. Nebraska is #253 in offensive rebounding at 25.4% while the Illini are #7 in defensive rebounding at 78.9%.
Would be great to hit a lot of 3's, but offensive rebounding is a pretty good insurance policy. Hoping that Morez, White, Riley and Co. hit the boards relentlessly tonight.
 
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#185      
Bbuck21
RML said:
I agree... Of course those ill-advised few are particularly maddening in a tight game. I'll try to maintain composure tonight when one goes up, just please keep that number down.
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I have convinced myself that this is their game. I get it. I just try to accept the bad results (ill-advised shot or general misses) with the good results. This offense requires they push the ball hard and shoot quickly when the opportunity is present.
 
#186      
Bigtex
Paign said:
Nebraskas whole defensive scheme is based around baiting teams into 3s and you know we’re taking that bait. We live and die by the 3 but especially this game, inevitably gonna shoot a high volume so need to shoot above our average
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As stated Nebraska wants/allows 3's Heard a stat they are 360th in allowing 3's

Illinois takes 40 3s tonight. Hopefully make at least 12 (or 30%).
 
#189      
RML
theNewGuy said:
Gotta get those offensive rebounds from these shots. Tomi out makes that a little harder but we need to CRASH the glass.
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Does Nebby run? If not, I see no reason not to crash the offensive glass
 
#191      
Bigtex
Bigtex said:
As stated Nebraska wants/allows 3's Heard a stat they are 360th in allowing 3's

Illinois takes 40 3s tonight. Hopefully make at least 12 (or 30%).
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Illinois took 42 3s vs Eastern Game 1
Illinois took 38 3s vs SIU Edwardsville Game 2
Illinois took 40 3s vs Maryland East Shore Game 5

In the other games they have taken between 23-34 3s.

IMO Illinois takes 42+3s @ Nebraska
 
#192      
skyIdub
We will get their best game. Only way to offset it is our defense and rebounding effort.

If it's there we should thump them. If it's not, it'll be close.
 
#193      
ptgrd23
Paign said:
Nebraskas whole defensive scheme is based around baiting teams into 3s and you know we’re taking that bait. We live and die by the 3 but especially this game, inevitably gonna shoot a high volume so need to shoot above our average
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Ben has come out of his shooting slump. Need Riley to do same. Plus lockdown defense we played first half vs NW. This is a much weaker Nebraska team. Must win for Ilinois.
 
#195      
illini011923
NarrowJ said:
Just want to point out he is shooting 40% from 3 over his last 8 gms (but had a somewhat rough patch prior to that)
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He's being more selective , when he hit is rough patch (ex. Tennessee game) he was shooting a very high volume of 3's

I want him to shoot a little bit more , especially being 40%+ of late but its been a combination of taking better/less shots and players have bad stretches. The good players don't let that build and continue the entire season
 
#196      
NarrowJ
illini011923 said:
He's being more selective , when he hit is rough patch (ex. Tennessee game) he was shooting a very high volume of 3's

I want him to shoot a little bit more , especially being 40%+ of late but its been a combination of taking better/less shots and players have bad stretches. The good players don't let that build and continue the entire season
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I'm a dummy and read his post as 'Ben has to come out of his shooting slump' rather than 'Ben has come out of his shooting slump'

Anyhow, I wonder what his percentage is on that elbow 30 footer that he likes so much. Would rather he not shoot that unless wide open.
 
#197      
illini011923
This game will come down to 3 point shooting and if we hit our shots.

According to CBB analytics:
- when compared to other BIG Ten schools Illinois ranks #1 in 3pt attempt rate
- Nebraska ranks LAST in opponents 3pt attempt rate (meaning they give up the highest percentage of 3s)
- Vice versa Nebraska attempts an average amount of 3's while Illinois have the lowest 3pt shot attempts against them

The big stat I compared was Home/Road splits for each team
- Illinois actually shoots better on the road but not by much
- 30.7% at home / 31.7% on the road (this is not including the Arkansas, Missouri, and Alabama game - shot 37.9% from 3 in those)
- If you combine road/neutral site 34.05%
- Nebraska's defense gives up roughly 42% on the road and only 28% at home
Not sure what magic Nebraska has at home that causes that stark of a difference.

This concerns me with some of the struggle we've had shooting of late but Brad Underwood has proven to be the best road coach in the big ten
- His records 32-22 vs Big Ten opponents which is the best in Big Ten since 2019-20 season
- Brad's 10-2 vs Nebraska and on a 9 game win streak

Prediction:
- Illinois makes 12+ 3s
- KJ or Ben hit 4 3s
- Morez with 10 Rebounds and 3-4 Blocks - and stays out of foul trouble (I'm hoping for this the most)
Illinois wins 89-76
 
#198      
DeeIL89
Will echo what a lot of folks here have said. Rebound. Rebound. Rebound. Nebraska will force us to shoot 3s so us getting those second chance rebounds off of 3 point misses will be key.
 
#200      
illinifan1987
Survivorau GIF by Australian Survivor

Please tell me the J stands for Jonathan :ROFLMAO:
 
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