Pregame: Illinois at Nebraska, Thursday, January 30th, 7:30pm CT, FS1

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#51      
Here is a quick overview of relevant info to our current frontcourt situation. I'll let smarter folks than me evaluate, as I think I've only tuned in for one half of Nebraska basketball so far this year:

Nebraska big men:
Andrew Morgan - 6-10 242 lb Sr, averaging 18 min of the bench scoring 8 pts with 4.5 rebounds.
Berke Buyuktuncel
- 6-10 244 lb So, starting PF with 23 min per game scoring 8 pts, 5.8 rebounds shooting 31% from 3
Braxton Meah - 7-1 264 lb Sr, starting C with 15 min per game scoring 3 pts, 3.6 rebounds

Nebraska's offensive is statistically unremarkable, falling in the middle of the pack of D-1 for most offensive stats. Their rebounding margin is +1 compared to our +11.

Their stat that may be our Achilles heel as it relates to our team's inconsistency is their average D-1 Experience, which is 2.74 years. This is 28th in the country, so they're an experienced team. I took a quick look at our wins and losses, the average experience of teams we lose against is 2.42 while the average experience of teams we beat is 1.79. If you adjust this to teams better than a 100 rank in KenPom, this changes to 2.19 for teams we've beaten. The oldest teams that we've lost to are Tennessee, Bama, and USC.

Rienk Mast (6'-10", 260 Lbs.) is still on the team. He looked good last year, but is out this season with a knee injury.
 
#53      
Desperately need to step up and get two wins this week ... this will change, but as of now these are two Quad 1 opportunities. If we are all going to bed on Sunday night and the Illini are 16-6 overall, 8-4 in the Big Ten and 6-5 in Quad 1 games ... hell, that would certainly make up for the two home losses for me!

While the defensive effort absolutely has to be there (defense travels, after all!), this team REALLY needs to start maintaining a higher level of scoring. This is only against "major conference" opponents this season:

Wins: 89.3 PPG vs. 72.9 PAPG
Losses: 72.0 PPG vs. 81.6 PAPG

So in our losses, we are giving up almost 9 more points per game ... but we are SCORING more than 17 fewer points per game. And here is how we shot so far this year in those games, with wins in orange and losses in blue. I also included today's AP rankings as some sort of context:

FIELD GOALS
57.5% at #16 Oregon
52.6% vs. Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
47.0% at Washington

46.5% in average win
45.1% vs. #4 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
44.6% vs. Northwestern
44.2% vs. Penn State
43.9% vs. #20 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)

42.9% in average game
42.4% at #7 Michigan State
42.2% vs. #17 Wisconsin
40.0% at Indiana

38.2% in average loss
37.7% vs. Maryland
37.3% at Northwestern
37.1% vs. USC
29.4% vs. #8 Tennessee


THREE-POINTERS
55.2% at #16 Oregon
48.4% vs. Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
34.8% in average win
(obviously driven up by Oregon!)
34.4% at Indiana
33.3% vs. #4 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
32.3% vs. Penn State
30.8% vs. #20 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
30.3% vs. #17 Wisconsin

30.0% in average game
28.1% vs. Northwestern
26.5% at Northwestern
23.6% in average loss
21.9% vs. USC
21.4% vs. Maryland
20.8% at #7 Michigan State

19.2% at Washington
17.4% vs. #8 Tennessee

So a couple takeaways...
- While you get some more variation with the 3-point shooting (e.g., we shot terribly at Washington but grinded out a win), the overall shooting is pretty clear. If this squad can make over 40% of its field goals, we will be very difficult to beat. I still haven't figured out that November Alabama game, and it doesn't really fit into my picture of this team, good or bad. However, other than that our only loss when shooting above 40% is at Michigan State. And on that note...
- The numbers reinforce what a ridiculously unlucky loss that was in East Lansing. If we make ONE more 3-pointer and shoot slightly worse than we did in the atrocious OT loss at Northwestern, we win. This says nothing of missed layups, KJ out with ridiculous foul trouble, the technical, etc. SO many unforced errors, and we lost by two. Super frustrating.
- As we all probably expected, the Oregon and Arkansas games indeed stand out as good representations of this team's ceiling. We played great basketball in practically every aspect.
- The NU home win yesterday serves as a good reminder to this team that it doesn't have to come via the three! We shot below our average from three, but we shot above our average overall. If the threes aren't falling ... go inside!!
- It is truly astounding that we were so close to knocking off Tennessee. Our offensive performance that game was just abysmal - last in both categories above. Looking back, I am pretty proud of the defense and the effort in that one, and I am less frustrated with the loss (other than the "so close!" aspect, of course).

TL;DR for Nebraska

While we obviously need to be mentally focused and bring appropriate effort on the defensive end, I am now more convinced than ever that this team really just needs to hit BASIC open shots to get back on track. When we turn in even serviceable shooting performances, we are damn good. As quoted above, we are 8-2 vs. major conference opponents when we shoot over 40% from the field; the only two losses were to Alabama way back in November and the utterly frustrating screw job at Michigan State. That's it. Don't miss layups, hit even a C minus-level of 3-pointers, bring effort, and not many teams will beat us. And at this level ... I would contend that missing wide open shots and/or layups with a large enough sample size is more mental than anything else. FOCUS, and bring home a big road win!!

#18 Illinois 83
Nebraska 70
 
#55      
high fidelity 90s GIF
One of my favorite commercials . . . . Originally for Maxell tapes . . . I think I finally sold my Pioneer RT707 reel-to-reel with about two dozen Maxell tapes during this last move to Florida.
 
#57      
Desperately need to step up and get two wins this week ... this will change, but as of now these are two Quad 1 opportunities. If we are all going to bed on Sunday night and the Illini are 16-6 overall, 8-4 in the Big Ten and 6-5 in Quad 1 games ... hell, that would certainly make up for the two home losses for me!

While the defensive effort absolutely has to be there (defense travels, after all!), this team REALLY needs to start maintaining a higher level of scoring. This is only against "major conference" opponents this season:

Wins: 89.3 PPG vs. 72.9 PAPG
Losses: 72.0 PPG vs. 81.6 PAPG

So in our losses, we are giving up almost 9 more points per game ... but we are SCORING more than 17 fewer points per game. And here is how we shot so far this year in those games, with wins in orange and losses in blue. I also included today's AP rankings as some sort of context:

FIELD GOALS
57.5% at #16 Oregon
52.6% vs. Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
47.0% at Washington

46.5% in average win
45.1% vs. #4 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
44.6% vs. Northwestern
44.2% vs. Penn State
43.9% vs. #20 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)

42.9% in average game
42.4% at #7 Michigan State
42.2% vs. #17 Wisconsin
40.0% at Indiana

38.2% in average loss
37.7% vs. Maryland
37.3% at Northwestern
37.1% vs. USC
29.4% vs. #8 Tennessee


THREE-POINTERS
55.2% at #16 Oregon
48.4% vs. Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
34.8% in average win
(obviously driven up by Oregon!)
34.4% at Indiana
33.3% vs. #4 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
32.3% vs. Penn State
30.8% vs. #20 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
30.3% vs. #17 Wisconsin

30.0% in average game
28.1% vs. Northwestern
26.5% at Northwestern
23.6% in average loss
21.9% vs. USC
21.4% vs. Maryland
20.8% at #7 Michigan State

19.2% at Washington
17.4% vs. #8 Tennessee

So a couple takeaways...
- While you get some more variation with the 3-point shooting (e.g., we shot terribly at Washington but grinded out a win), the overall shooting is pretty clear. If this squad can make over 40% of its field goals, we will be very difficult to beat. I still haven't figured out that November Alabama game, and it doesn't really fit into my picture of this team, good or bad. However, other than that our only loss when shooting above 40% is at Michigan State. And on that note...
- The numbers reinforce what a ridiculously unlucky loss that was in East Lansing. If we make ONE more 3-pointer and shoot slightly worse than we did in the atrocious OT loss at Northwestern, we win. This says nothing of missed layups, KJ out with ridiculous foul trouble, the technical, etc. SO many unforced errors, and we lost by two. Super frustrating.
- As we all probably expected, the Oregon and Arkansas games indeed stand out as good representations of this team's ceiling. We played great basketball in practically every aspect.
- The NU home win yesterday serves as a good reminder to this team that it doesn't have to come via the three! We shot below our average from three, but we shot above our average overall. If the threes aren't falling ... go inside!!
- It is truly astounding that we were so close to knocking off Tennessee. Our offensive performance that game was just abysmal - last in both categories above. Looking back, I am pretty proud of the defense and the effort in that one, and I am less frustrated with the loss (other than the "so close!" aspect, of course).

TL;DR for Nebraska

While we obviously need to be mentally focused and bring appropriate effort on the defensive end, I am now more convinced than ever that this team really just needs to hit BASIC open shots to get back on track. When we turn in even serviceable shooting performances, we are damn good. As quoted above, we are 8-2 vs. major conference opponents when we shoot over 40% from the field; the only two losses were to Alabama way back in November and the utterly frustrating screw job at Michigan State. That's it. Don't miss layups, hit even a C minus-level of 3-pointers, bring effort, and not many teams will beat us. And at this level ... I would contend that missing wide open shots and/or layups with a large enough sample size is more mental than anything else. FOCUS, and bring home a big road win!!

#18 Illinois 83
Nebraska 70
Just curious, FON … do you have another job besides this one?
 
#59      
Lol, yes, and you’d crack up if you knew what it was. You certainly wouldn’t guess I’d find time to post this much. 🤣

This one was actually really easy, though. Sports Reference is an amazing website!
Sounds like it's time for a Loyalty Guessing Game™!

Airline pilot!
 
#67      
One of my favorite commercials . . . . Originally for Maxell tapes . . . I think I finally sold my Pioneer RT707 reel-to-reel with about two dozen Maxell tapes during this last move to Florida.

I purchased a complete 4-channel setup while in the USAF stationed in Japan with the workhorse being the Pioneer QX9900 receiver (top shelf), JVC sound effect amplifier (SEA) on the 2nd shelf, along with an Akai 4-channel tape deck, 4 Pioneer speakers, and a Dual turntable. The Yamaha receiver (shelf 3) was a later life purchase. Spent my year and half at Misawa borrowing tons of albums and recording everything you could think of with early 70s music onto Maxell tapes that would hold 5 albums, what a blast, lots of fun. Probably was a precursor to my tinnitus today.

Back on topic - go Illini, beat NE!!

1738039724017.jpeg
 
#68      
I purchased a complete 4-channel setup while in the USAF stationed in Japan with the workhorse being the Pioneer QX9900 receiver (top shelf), JVC sound effect amplifier (SEA) on the 2nd shelf, along with an Akai 4-channel tape deck, 4 Pioneer speakers, and a Dual turntable. The Yamaha receiver (shelf 3) was a later life purchase. Spent my year and half at Misawa borrowing tons of albums and recording everything you could think of with early 70s music onto Maxell tapes that would hold 5 albums, what a blast, lots of fun. Probably was a precursor to my tinnitus today.

Back on topic - go Illini, beat NE!!

View attachment 39182
My first setup was a Pioneer SX-1980, the biggest, baddest beast in the stereo receiver market at the time. I had the Pioneer SG-9500 graphic equalizer, along with the RT707 reel to reel, a Dual two cassette deck, and a Technics turntable playing into two Tannoy speakers in my dorm room at Aviano, Italy, all purchased from the BX. Great times, and what did you say? My tinnitus is drowning out your typing . . . 😂
 
#72      
Sounds like it's time for a Loyalty Guessing Game™!

Airline pilot!
You guys are acting like he hasn't told us a bunch of times that he's a valuation and financial consultant for large health systems and private physician practices.

Next are you going to tell me you don't know he's from Peoria but grew up in Iowa before moving to Chicago and getting his MBA at DePaul?

Frustration Oh Come On GIF by Chaz French
 
#73      
My first setup was a Pioneer SX-1980, the biggest, baddest beast in the stereo receiver market at the time. I had the Pioneer SG-9500 graphic equalizer, along with the RT707 reel to reel, a Dual two cassette deck, and a Technics turntable playing into two Tannoy speakers in my dorm room at Aviano, Italy, all purchased from the BX. Great times, and what did you say? My tinnitus is drowning out your typing . . . 😂
boogie nights dancing GIF
 
#75      
How did we do in the 2nd half of those games?
@MustangWally Without looking back, we outscored Oregon by 25 in the 2nd half.

I can’t quite recall the half breakdown against PSU. While a total 40 certainly isn’t consistent, it’s definitely been done. Earlier in the season I’d consider the game against Arkansas to be a complete game as well.

Go Illini
 
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