Pregame: Illinois at Rutgers, Saturday, December 2nd, 3:00pm CT, BTN

Status
Not open for further replies.
#51      
Rutgers' offense is hot garbage so we can grind out a win even if we aren't making shots.

What worries me is they are really good at defending the rim, specifically Omoruyi. Would be huge if Hawkins can hit a couple early 3's and force Omoruyi away from the rim. If we can open up the paint we might be able to pull away and not even have to sweat the last few minutes.

They just don't have the scoring that Mulcahy, Cam Spencer, Gio, and Harper gave them the past couple years.
 
#52      
Small, compact arenas are hell to play in as a visiting team if the crowd is into it. I'm getting to be an old man and reflect occasionally on what, for example, Oregon lost by moving from MacArthur Court to its present, Phil Knight-funded large arena, and other programs have given up via similar moves to larger venues. In the BT, I've been to the Barn twice when it was empty (in the late '80s.) I can tell you from watching the Gophers on TV when I was a kid that you're right: the place is frightful when it's full and rockin' and the Gophers are rolling. That hasn't happened with regularity over the years, however. Look up the YouTube video of the early '70s Bill Musselman-era, Harlem Globetrotters-inspired warmup routine that the Gophers had and you'll get an idea of the potential.
Much like our move from Huff over to the Assembly Hall. Yes, we were all awestruck by the fancy new arena but there is no way to create the atmosphere that we had in a packed Huff, where fans were right on top of the action, to that in the cavernous Assembly Hall.
 
#53      
Rutgers' offense is hot garbage so we can grind out a win even if we aren't making shots.

What worries me is they are really good at defending the rim, specifically Omoruyi. Would be huge if Hawkins can hit a couple early 3's and force Omoruyi away from the rim. If we can open up the paint we might be able to pull away and not even have to sweat the last few minutes.

They just don't have the scoring that Mulcahy, Cam Spencer, Gio, and Harper gave them the past couple years.
Yes. As of a few days ago, it was literally one of the worst in P6.

There is a certain mystique about the RAC and we've definitely laid some clunkers there. But this is one that we should win.
 
#55      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
Much like our move from Huff over to the Assembly Hall. Yes, we were all awestruck by the fancy new arena but there is no way to create the atmosphere that we had in a packed Huff, where fans were right on top of the action, to that in the cavernous Assembly Hall.
I played intramural basketball there in the '80s and recall wondering what the old pre-!!!'y Hall days there were like. I believe it only sat less than 5k for basketball. Really too small for the BT, though I imagine it's a prime volleyball venue. Back in those old days of the '80s the ladies (you know this, of course, but many of the younger among us won't) still called Kenney Gym home.
 
#57      

sacraig

The desert
Rutgers will be tough, they held future NBA HOFer Jayden Epps to 4-12 shooting to go along with 1 assist and 5 turnovers.
Nick Offerman Laughing GIF
 
#59      
Rutgers won big tonight over Saint Peter’s. They’re up to 56 in Kenpom, and this one should basically be a coin flip, maybe Illinois opens -1.5 or -2. I actually think of the games remaining in 2023, this is most important. To get to 1-0 in conference play with a road win under our belt would be huge, especially for how tough our conference schedule is.

The Big Ten is currently +14.79 aggregate in Kenpom. It finished the 2021-22 season at +13.51 aggregate, a year in which our best non-conference win was over #38 Notre Dame at home or #61 Kansas St. on a neutral. We got a 4 seed that year due to conference play wins. Beating FAU or Tennessee would be great, but I don’t see the Big Ten as down as others, especially when you get road games. Top 75 road wins are Q1, and that’s currently 12/14 Big Ten teams.
 
#60      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
Small, compact arenas are hell to play in as a visiting team if the crowd is into it. I'm getting to be an old man and reflect occasionally on what, for example, Oregon lost by moving from MacArthur Court to its present, Phil Knight-funded large arena, and other programs have given up via similar moves to larger venues. In the BT, I've been to the Barn twice when it was empty (in the late '80s.) I can tell you from watching the Gophers on TV when I was a kid that you're right: the place is frightful when it's full and rockin' and the Gophers are rolling. That hasn't happened with regularity over the years, however. Look up the YouTube video of the early '70s Bill Musselman-era, Harlem Globetrotters-inspired warmup routine that the Gophers had and you'll get an idea of the potential.

Other observations:

Penn State: I visited its old Rec Hall when I attended the Illini football game there in '08. Saw part of (IIRC) a volleyball game there. Was very loud. Approx. same size as the RAC (8k) for basketball. I thought to myself at the time that PSU gave up a huge home-court advantage when the completely sterile Bryce-Jordan Center was built (15k), which I'd visited earlier in the day. They don't even remotely fill that venue and never will.

Maryland: This is the arena I currently know best because of the number of games I've seen there in the past decade. It's extremely intimidating when full and loud. Fun place to see a competitive game, particularly because Maryland fans are generally angry vipers. Would have loved to see a game in the old Cole Fieldhouse, which is now the football practice facility.

Ohio State: Definite lack of atmosphere and also sterile. Their problem is that they could fill the old St. John Arena (13k) today easily but can't fill the Value City Arena (19k) regularly, the capacity of which was aspirational when it was built. And that old arena was a great venue.

Iowa: Saw a women's game in Carver-Hawkeye 20 years ago. I thought to myself that if it were full it would be an intimidating place to play given the steep bowl and (as you note) flat roof.

Unsurprisingly, I'm biased: our Assembly Hall is easily the jewel of the conference. :ah:. Would rank Mackey second.


On my TO DO list for future Illini road trips:

Purdue: Gotta see a Purdue v. Illini game here. Visited Mackey two or three times back in the '80s and '90s when you could just walk in there off the street. Each time I looked at that low metal drum ceiling and thought: this place must get deafening.

Indiana: Again, have been in here when it was empty (it was 1990 and the women were practicing.) Strange, auditorium-like venue with enormous upper levels as I recall. Would love to see a game there.

Michigan State: Seems nothing special but I imagine it will be an enjoyable place to see a Illini road victory.

Had visited the old McGaw Hall (NW's Welsh-Ryan Arena) in the '80s and '90s before the renovations. Yawn. Lots of small-arena potential unfulfilled. Also Crisler Arena (pedestrian, like it's football sibling next door) and the old Wisconsin Field House in the late '80s when the men still played there. The latter seemed as though it had potential but at the time was somewhat dilapidated. I believe the volleyball team plays there now.

Am stoked about Saturday's game at the RAC. That's been on my list since Rutgers joined the conference.
And Pauley Pavilion....?
 
#61      

DeonThomas

South Carolina
I'm seeing Illini -5.5 this Saturday. Not sure I'd be willing to give those points on the road at the RAC.
 
#62      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
And Pauley Pavilion....?
If I happen to have other reasons to go to L.A., then perhaps. That arena has never moved me. None of the four PAC-12 emigrants to the BT have compelling basketball arenas, IMO. I liked Washington's b/c it was fairly small and cozy when I visited in the mid-'90s but wouldn't go out of my way to see a game there.

I will, however, travel to Husky Stadium, Autzen and the Coliseum at some point to see an Illini football game.
 
#63      
Rutgers won big tonight over Saint Peter’s. They’re up to 56 in Kenpom, and this one should basically be a coin flip, maybe Illinois opens -1.5 or -2. I actually think of the games remaining in 2023, this is most important. To get to 1-0 in conference play with a road win under our belt would be huge, especially for how tough our conference schedule is.

The Big Ten is currently +14.79 aggregate in Kenpom. It finished the 2021-22 season at +13.51 aggregate, a year in which our best non-conference win was over #38 Notre Dame at home or #61 Kansas St. on a neutral. We got a 4 seed that year due to conference play wins. Beating FAU or Tennessee would be great, but I don’t see the Big Ten as down as others, especially when you get road games. Top 75 road wins are Q1, and that’s currently 12/14 Big Ten teams.
Rutgers is rounding into form just as we're about to visit the RAC.

Stop me if you've heard this one before.
 
#64      
It is way too early to think about the whether so and so has us in the tourney. The Illini will have plenty of chances to prove they belong in the Big conference. Now as for the upcoming game at Rutgers it seems the Illini have a tendency not to show up for that game. I think the free throw shooting and lack of consistency from 3 and CoHawks inability to guard Omiuyri will doom us again! Rutgers 73 Illini 68.
I agree with Vinegarben. Here is how I put it:

I expect IL to lose this game, but I will be rooting for them. Here is how they could win it:

(1) Coleman can't come back to jack up 3s at 14% (his season average, so far). He also can't have 4+ TOs if we want to win. Instead, he has to be healthy enough (both regarding tendonitis and his mental health) to play a really good game including super defense, smart passes without being dangerous, driving to the basket for two-handed jams or short jumpers in the lane, jump hooks over Cliff Omoruyi, and a few wide-open 3s with his feet set.

(2) TSJ must play an outstanding game. We know he can do this, but we MUST have it here. This will show how great and consistent he is, so I really want to see this from him.

(3) Dainja MUST play about 20 mins in this game and MUST have a good game for us to win. Why? Because he is our 2nd-leading scorer (at 10.3 pts/game) and our highest per-minute scorer this season (at 62 pts in 95 mins = 0.653 pts/min, where TSJ is 2nd at 117 pts in 181 = 0.646 pts/min). If Underwood doesn't play Dainja enough, then this is guaranteed loss. Why? Because all those thinking Marcus Domask was going to kill it in the Big Ten simply don't understand how hard it is to score against tough BT teams, especially on the road. Instead, Domask must continue to be a role player at IL and play within himself and selflessly feeding others including TSJ, Dainja, Goodie, and even Rogers regarding cuts in the lane. And, yes, Domask will have to hit a few shots too. He also MUST play near the end if IL has the lead, since he and TSJ are great FT shooters, while Dainja and Rogers are NOT and probably need to be off the court by then.

To not shoot too many 3s (relative to 2s) and therefore fail to maximize our scoring, we MUST avoid 3s from our weaker 3pt shooters: CH, QG, DGL, etc. Instead, only Goodie and TSJ should hunt for 3s. Domask and Hawkins and Guerrier can only take wide-open 3s. They simply aren't shooting them well enough yet this season to do otherwise at 24% and 14% and 6%, respectively. I expect these guys to boost their 3pt percentages by being very selective in their 3s over the next 6 games.

Yes, if we did most of these things, we would win. Will we do it them in this game? Probably not, so, sadly, we will lose a close game to Rutgers on Saturday.
 
#66      
I agree with Vinegarben. Here is how I put it:

I expect IL to lose this game, but I will be rooting for them. Here is how they could win it:

(1) Coleman can't come back to jack up 3s at 14% (his season average, so far). He also can't have 4+ TOs if we want to win. Instead, he has to be healthy enough (both regarding tendonitis and his mental health) to play a really good game including super defense, smart passes without being dangerous, driving to the basket for two-handed jams or short jumpers in the lane, jump hooks over Cliff Omoruyi, and a few wide-open 3s with his feet set.

(2) TSJ must play an outstanding game. We know he can do this, but we MUST have it here. This will show how great and consistent he is, so I really want to see this from him.

(3) Dainja MUST play about 20 mins in this game and MUST have a good game for us to win. Why? Because he is our 2nd-leading scorer (at 10.3 pts/game) and our highest per-minute scorer this season (at 62 pts in 95 mins = 0.653 pts/min, where TSJ is 2nd at 117 pts in 181 = 0.646 pts/min). If Underwood doesn't play Dainja enough, then this is guaranteed loss. Why? Because all those thinking Marcus Domask was going to kill it in the Big Ten simply don't understand how hard it is to score against tough BT teams, especially on the road. Instead, Domask must continue to be a role player at IL and play within himself and selflessly feeding others including TSJ, Dainja, Goodie, and even Rogers regarding cuts in the lane. And, yes, Domask will have to hit a few shots too. He also MUST play near the end if IL has the lead, since he and TSJ are great FT shooters, while Dainja and Rogers are NOT and probably need to be off the court by then.

To not shoot too many 3s (relative to 2s) and therefore fail to maximize our scoring, we MUST avoid 3s from our weaker 3pt shooters: CH, QG, DGL, etc. Instead, only Goodie and TSJ should hunt for 3s. Domask and Hawkins and Guerrier can only take wide-open 3s. They simply aren't shooting them well enough yet this season to do otherwise at 24% and 14% and 6%, respectively. I expect these guys to boost their 3pt percentages by being very selective in their 3s over the next 6 games.

Yes, if we did most of these things, we would win. Will we do it them in this game? Probably not, so, sadly, we will lose a close game to Rutgers on Saturday.
Basketball doesn’t work in absolutes.
 
#67      
I agree with Vinegarben. Here is how I put it:

I expect IL to lose this game, but I will be rooting for them. Here is how they could win it:

(1) Coleman can't come back to jack up 3s at 14% (his season average, so far). He also can't have 4+ TOs if we want to win. Instead, he has to be healthy enough (both regarding tendonitis and his mental health) to play a really good game including super defense, smart passes without being dangerous, driving to the basket for two-handed jams or short jumpers in the lane, jump hooks over Cliff Omoruyi, and a few wide-open 3s with his feet set.

(2) TSJ must play an outstanding game. We know he can do this, but we MUST have it here. This will show how great and consistent he is, so I really want to see this from him.

(3) Dainja MUST play about 20 mins in this game and MUST have a good game for us to win. Why? Because he is our 2nd-leading scorer (at 10.3 pts/game) and our highest per-minute scorer this season (at 62 pts in 95 mins = 0.653 pts/min, where TSJ is 2nd at 117 pts in 181 = 0.646 pts/min). If Underwood doesn't play Dainja enough, then this is guaranteed loss. Why? Because all those thinking Marcus Domask was going to kill it in the Big Ten simply don't understand how hard it is to score against tough BT teams, especially on the road. Instead, Domask must continue to be a role player at IL and play within himself and selflessly feeding others including TSJ, Dainja, Goodie, and even Rogers regarding cuts in the lane. And, yes, Domask will have to hit a few shots too. He also MUST play near the end if IL has the lead, since he and TSJ are great FT shooters, while Dainja and Rogers are NOT and probably need to be off the court by then.

To not shoot too many 3s (relative to 2s) and therefore fail to maximize our scoring, we MUST avoid 3s from our weaker 3pt shooters: CH, QG, DGL, etc. Instead, only Goodie and TSJ should hunt for 3s. Domask and Hawkins and Guerrier can only take wide-open 3s. They simply aren't shooting them well enough yet this season to do otherwise at 24% and 14% and 6%, respectively. I expect these guys to boost their 3pt percentages by being very selective in their 3s over the next 6 games.

Yes, if we did most of these things, we would win. Will we do it them in this game? Probably not, so, sadly, we will lose a close game to Rutgers on Saturday.
russell westbrook GIF


Half Baked Boo GIF
 
#68      
Only 2 B1G teams outside the top 75 on Kenpom, same as the BE and no other P6 team has less. 4 inside top 25, so a total of 16 Q1 ops inside the B1G. Tied for the most with SEC and B12. Lots of opportunities left on the schedule for B1G teams.
 
#71      
I can't recall a post-Thanksgiving week where we didn't have a game. For years, of course, it has been the week of the ACC-BT Challenge. Interesting change this season. On one hand, the boys can gather themselves after the first several games, practice further, and get healthy. On the other hand, I worry, given their penchant for sluggish starts, about what they'll muster at the RAC at tip-off on Saturday. I hope they're focused and aggressive. Am looking forward to seeing them in person for the first time in the Trapezoid of Tribulation.
We will be there in Section 217, an old couple in (what else) Orange.

We've been there before. No doubt someone paid off the mob to build that. It's small, ugly, with small concourses and insufficient. And it's loud, more noise per capita than the Assembly Hall with the seats right above the court. The 300 level is benches, not seatbacks.
 
#72      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
We will be there in Section 217, an old couple in (what else) Orange.

We've been there before. No doubt someone paid off the mob to build that. It's small, ugly, with small concourses and insufficient. And it's loud, more noise per capita than the Assembly Hall with the seats right above the court. The 300 level is benches, not seatbacks.
Did my thorough due diligence on the seating. Snagged tickets at the bottom of the bench section on your side, 313.
 
#73      
I can't recall a post-Thanksgiving week where we didn't have a game. For years, of course, it has been the week of the ACC-BT Challenge. Interesting change this season. On one hand, the boys can gather themselves after the first several games, practice further, and get healthy. On the other hand, I worry, given their penchant for sluggish starts, about what they'll muster at the RAC at tip-off on Saturday. I hope they're focused and aggressive. Am looking forward to seeing them in person for the first time in the Trapezoid of Tribulation. :illinois:
We were suppose to play Colgate last night originally


Get the markers out; Illinois is making a slight change to its non-conference schedule.

The Illini announced Wednesday that the game against Colgate will be Sunday, Dec. 17 at State Farm Center. It was originally planned for Nov. 27.
 
#74      
Only 2 B1G teams outside the top 75 on Kenpom, same as the BE and no other P6 team has less. 4 inside top 25, so a total of 16 Q1 ops inside the B1G. Tied for the most with SEC and B12. Lots of opportunities left on the schedule for B1G teams.
A number of people are posting Pomeroy ratings right now, so this comment isn't directed at you specifically, but it should be known, this is very early in the season still and as such the Pomeroy rankings rely very heavily on preseason data at this point and that will be true until about the 10 game mark where this year's stats will grow to account for the large majority of a team's efficiency metrics and gradually build to 100% by game 20. As such, it's more important to see how teams are performing compared to their preseason metrics at this time as those who are doing worse are being held up by the preseason metrics at this time and those that are doing better are being dragged down. Probably the easiest way to explain it is current ratings are heavily damped by preseason metrics.

So if we look at the kenpom data to see how B10 teams have performed and what direction their "true rank" would be, this is what you'd expect:

Purdue: 1-->2 -1
MSU: 13-->20 -7
Wisky: 20-->23 -3
OSU: 35-->25 +10
ILL: 19-->26 -7
Iowa: 51-->40 +11
Neb: 58-->46 +12
Mich: 45-->54 -9
Rut: 59-->56 +3
NW: 40-->57 -17
MD: 23-->59 -36!!!
IND: 50-->75 -25!!!
PSU: 85-->95 -10
Minn: 112-->137 -25!!

So looking at this, there are 8 B10 teams currently being at least significantly assisted by their preseason metrics, whereas only 3 B10 teams at this time are significantly outperforming their preseason metrics and are being artificially dragged down by them.

So if we were to imagine at this point that these 6-7 games were representative of the B10 teams at this point and they'd play about the same the rest of the season, you'd be looking at something approximately like:
Clear T1 (1-25): Purdue, OSU
T1-T2 cusp (25-35): Wisky, MSU, Iowa, ILL, Neb
T2 (35-70): Rut, Mich
T2-T3 cusp (70-80): NW
T3 (80-135): MD, IND, PSU
TBad: Minn

Now it is still very early in the season, so expect teams to move around significantly, but overall you're not wrong with the upper end where the projected T1-T2cusp at this time isn't all that different from last season's final numbers. The T2 and lower though is significantly different as there was only 1 bad and 1 ok team last year, where this year we're up to 1 bad and 4 ok this year. So if it holds up, there is opportunity for quality wins, but not as much as last season, and beating the chaff of the B10 isn't going to inflate metrics due to strength of opponent as much as it did last year.

But I'll just end with, let's wait until we're at least into the 10th game of the season before we start putting the magnifying glass on kenpom for trying to figure out quality wins as the numbers right now aren't all that representative and he'd tell you the same.
 
#75      
At least in recent times, this has been a pretty lopsided series depending on where the games have been played ... time to reverse our bad fortunes at the RAC!

OVERALL: Illinois leads 11-4

In Piscataway, NJ: Rutgers leads 4-2
2021-22: Rutgers 70, #12 Illinois 59
2020-21: #19 Rutgers 91, #13 Illinois 88
2019-20: Rutgers 72, #22 Illinois 57

2017-18: Illinois 75, Rutgers 62
2016-17: Rutgers 62, Illinois 59
2015-16: Illinois 110, Rutgers 101 (3OT)

In Champaign, IL: Illinois leads 7-0
2022-23: Illinois 69, #24 Rutgers 60
2021-22: Illinois 86, Rutgers 51
2019-20: Illinois 54, Rutgers 51
2018-19: Illinois 99, Rutgers 94 (OT)
2017-18: Illinois 91, Rutgers 60
2015-16: Illinois 82, Rutgers 66
2014-15: Illinois 66, Rutgers 54


At Neutral Sites: Illinois leads 2-0
2020-21: #3 Illinois 90, Rutgers 68 (BTT Quarterfinals in Indianapolis, IN)
2005-06: #15 Illinois 77, Rutgers 57 (SPI Invitational in South Padre Island, TX)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.