Pregame: Illinois at Texas Tech, Tuesday, November 10th, 7:00pm CT, Peacock
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The best way to tire a shooter is to throw lots of different looks at him. Plus, since TT isn’t deep, we can wear them out. We play our game and dictate pace, we should win by double digits.
InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
It is easier to slow down a team IMHO, controlling tempo is a strategy and a very good one. Illinois will need to take an early lead to control the tempo. Trying to play fast while missing shot or having turnovers will work against us against a methodical slower tempo team.
Totally agree ... I think we can wear these guys down with our depth and size. I sense we might have to withstand a three point barrage in the first half, but just weather the storm and keep playing and we should prevail.
I didn't know AceWolf had any eligibility left...
Also seems like the type to play with a chip on his shoulder either real or imagined.DGL the archetype of guard that has roasted Illinois
After watching the first couple games I have a couple observations:
#1. I can see why Coleman is high on draft boards. I think he’s clearly our best player. He can get his own whenever he wants.
#2. I was expecting Brown, Zens, Williams to be low cost fill out the roster type players. But after seeing the confidence and poise Brown/Zens show in taking and making open 3s, those two are the type of guys that could average lot of points at a lower level then get big paydays to move up. So good scouting by Illinois to get them in initially. And Lincoln Williams is a revelation. From a late addition after thought recruit to now starting as a true freshman in a Ty Rodgers role. That’s the biggest surprise of the season for me.
I think the level we played at vs Cincy/Baylor is going to need to be raised to beat TT on the road. Our vets Tomi, Vaaks, and Stojakovic need to bring it. They are capable.
#1. I can see why Coleman is high on draft boards. I think he’s clearly our best player. He can get his own whenever he wants.
#2. I was expecting Brown, Zens, Williams to be low cost fill out the roster type players. But after seeing the confidence and poise Brown/Zens show in taking and making open 3s, those two are the type of guys that could average lot of points at a lower level then get big paydays to move up. So good scouting by Illinois to get them in initially. And Lincoln Williams is a revelation. From a late addition after thought recruit to now starting as a true freshman in a Ty Rodgers role. That’s the biggest surprise of the season for me.
I think the level we played at vs Cincy/Baylor is going to need to be raised to beat TT on the road. Our vets Tomi, Vaaks, and Stojakovic need to bring it. They are capable.
I see this coming down to the last few possessions. Whether it is 80's or low 90's. It would be great to get this one but we shall see. Our rookies are really good but this is ON THE ROAD in a very hostile environment.
Believe our defense is going to depend on rim protection I.e. the twins. We have the athleticism to keep pressure on the ball and keep the ball movement uncomfortable. Dre, Q, Lincoln and Ethan will be good and Vaaks will be adequate.
Yeah this will be a big litmus test for our depth, the freshman, and the season without Mirk. I have been extremely impressed with how we’ve played thus far, and it feels even better than last year even after the initial two warm up games (how we’ve looked against both this season’s warm ups and how we looked against last season’s warm ups). The speed and tenacity have been elevated. Though again, things change on the road and against top opponents without your best players.
A win here would be incredibly convincing, even though both teams don’t have their best players, as it shows our bench gives us a very high floor, and means at full strength we can be dangerous to take down any team in the country.
Defense needs to step up against players that are the type to have torched us last year. But in all I’m nervous. I think we can absolutely win, but Tech is a great team that can absolutely win too. Maybe that’s why the betting line is nearly dead even.
For the all the Tomi talk
I think the score will be much lower. Illinois 86-79
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I mean I'm sorry, but that's just flatly wrong and a clear indication there are some bats in the belfry of whatever this algorithm is.
I have every confidence in Tomi but he's had a slow start and hasn't been a top 4 performer on his own team.
It’s the sum of the offensive and defensive value guys bring to their team when on the court. Essentially the players overall value to the team when they are on the court.
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
Not in top 500 according to Loyalty game threads.
I didn't get around to the post game thread, so my observations from attending the Penn game. Having read about the change in offensive philosophy, which sonsidering last year's performance, seemed shocking and interesting to me at the same time. I focused on watching individual players off ball movement during a possession. Setting the way the game was played aside (IMO different approach from what they against FDU, FDU many quick passes/Penn more dribbling and driving). I did not see any of the 10 players looking like they didn't belong on the court with everybody. For half the of the team, that is no surprise, but for the other half (5 freshmen including Morillo) that was what I most impressed with. It just didn't seem to change much regardless of what combination of players were on the court. It is going to be interesting to watch against tougher competition. I'm more intrigued by this than the game results, but that's just me.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I get it, and I totally buy that under the hood Tomi has been contributing in ways that aren't reflected in counting stats. I don't think he's been terrible, his shot just isn't falling.
But Division 1 basketball is overflowing with players who HAVE been contributing in more tangible ways, against much better opposition than FDU and Penn. It's completely absurd to say he's the 4th most productive player in the nation so far, that just instantly fails a straight face test.
Analytics slop is a scourge of sports these days.
No slight intended to Tomi, I am resolutely pro-Ivisic in all ways at all times.
He has been muuuch better at rim protection for us this year.
EvanMiya uses a very interesting approach, and I think in large sample sizes it could be very powerful (it promises to naturally account for things like lower competition in garbage time, or when key players are hurt, etc). But the player ratings should not be used with small sample sizes, and that probably goes for the team rankings as well.
Edit: Torvik has Tomi 8th best on our team
What's the difference?
Edit: I mean, I understand that a player may contribute more than their talent, may play a key role that's elevated by teammates around them, and may have a much higher/lower expected future in the NBA. But when discussing "best" player in college, I don't care about talent or future potential, or just points. I care how they impacted their team when they were on the court, and that's a lot closer to "a player's overall value to his team when he is on the floor" than not
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stlrunner
jakeyjakey
- St Louis, MO
Yes! For like 1-2 years, they were gotta haves in middle school for me. I started with knockoff brands (I think they were Voits), because my Mom didn't wanna pay for the Reeboks...but I eventually also got Reeboks. Similarly...they maybe worked right for a week. Terrible product, brilliant marketing campaign.On the basketball shoes sidebar (assuming basketball shoes sidebar is fine given history of cottage cheese discussions):
Anyone remember Reebok Pumps? Those were all the rage in 8th grade. I begged and begged for a pair and one of them stopped working after like 4 days.
You asked what the difference was, and then kind of explained it yourself.
1. Value vs volume, mainly: "Best Player" rating would heavily favor players who score 20+ per game or play heavy minutes. BPR cares about how much better the team functions when a player is on the floor, regardless of having a ginormous usage rating or playing full minutes.
2. BPR uses play-by-play data to isolate the player. It accounts for the strength of the other 9 players on the court. A simple "Best Player" rating probably doesn't consider the individual within the context of the team/game environment.
3. Projection vs Accomplishment: A "Best Player" rating might tell you what a player has accomplished. BPR is a predictive metric designed to estimate how valuable a player is going forward. NBA front offices and draft analysts rely on tools like BPR alongside scouting reports. It doesn't care he only played 36 minutes in 2 games and it knows his poor shooting percentages are likely to experience positive regression.
EDIT: The irony is your exact definition of what matters ("I care how they impacted their team when they were on the court...") is precisely what BPR measures.
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