Pregame: Illinois vs Alabama, Wednesday, November 19th, 8:00pm CT, FS1

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#251      
RollChief
Key to win (other than rebounding) seems like it's going to be shutting down the 3 guards in the backcourt. Philon, Wrightsell, and Holloway scored 50 points on us last year, and returning players scored 57 points on us last year if you also add in Sherrell. I don't think they have a front-court answer for us, even if we're missing one of the Ivisic's.

Just as a comparison, our returning minutes (if you include Tomi) scored 42 on Bama last year, and if I put on my orange-tinted glasses and include Z's 27 points on them last year, we have 69 points worth returning from last year.
 
#252      
Illinialldayeveryday
Oats was pretty upset with how they rebounded so guessing it won't come as easy as it did for Purdue. Still like most of the matchups besides their stud guard. They remind me of Iowa with Fran but they try on defense.
 
#254      
Fighter of the Nightman
aaeismacgychel said:
One thing's for sure, if Dee's in the house we ain't losing in Chicago
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I love that you said this, and I definitely just confirmed that Dee was 12-0 in his Illini career in games at the United Center! Hope he's there, lol...

Fighter of the Nightman said:
... Thus, my final Excel guess as of now ... 16,681 ... plus 3 for us = 16,684. :cool: ...
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Also, just to put this in perspective, here are a few "home-away-from-home" crowds of games involving Big Ten teams over the past two seasons. Limiting it to semi-larger arenas to exclude smaller venues like the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, SD (Iowa/Nebraska) and the Palestra in Philadelphia (PSU).

#2 Auburn drew 15,355 in Birmingham last year vs. #16 Purdue
#11 Purdue drew 15,045 in Indianapolis last year vs. #17 Texas A&M
#2 Auburn drew 12,900 in Atlanta last year vs. Ohio State
#22 UCLA drew 12,272 vs. in Inglewood last year vs. #14 Gonzaga
#20 Michigan State drew 12,011 in Detroit last year vs. Oakland
#8 Alabama drew 11,533 in Birmingham last year vs. #25 Illinois
Rutgers drew 10,148 in Newark last year vs. Princeton
Wake Forest drew 8,905 in Greensboro last year vs. Michigan
Iowa drew 8,488 in Moline last year vs. Washington State
Arizona drew 8,437 in Phoenix last year vs. #24 UCLA
Syracuse drew 8,022 in Brooklyn last year vs. Maryland
#15 UCLA drew 7,554 in Inglewood this year vs. #5 Arizona
USC drew 7,554 in Inglewood this year vs. Illinois State
#6 Michigan drew 7,362 in Detroit this year vs. Wake Forest
Penn State drew 2,312 in Philadelphia last year vs. Drexel

So yeah, if my guess of over 16.6K plus for a Wednesday night is somewhat accurate, we will have beaten all of those crowds quite handily.
 
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#255      
PepeSilvia
21ChampaignSt said:
No disrespect but if you weren't "blown away" by our 2024 offense, which is like a top 10 offense of the KenPom era, maybe your Offensive-Scheme-O-Meter is a little off. Surely you don't think that was a top 10 most talented team of all time? Our strategy (scheme) that year 1000% allowed us to overachieve relative to the talent on the roster.
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Kempom ratings can't be compared year to year they only exist in a vacuum for the current year so I don't know where you're getting the top 10 offense part of the kenpom era from.

I assume you're talking about 2023-24 which the offense was very good but the scheme was simply TJ and Domask are the two best players on the court and the rest of the guys are going to bully you with positional size and athleticism but I legitimately think 5th year senior Terrence Shannon Jr was the most dominant college guard of the last 20-25 years. I legitimately can't think of another college guard off the top of my head that I would take over year 5 TJ.

If the scheme was that great they would have gotten better looks against UConn then just continually driving into Clingan to get rejected over and over.
 
#257      
thefalcon5
NarrowJ said:
The line did just move toward Alabama by one point, Illini still favored -2.5

That happening right around shootaround time isn’t great news… think we’re still going to have a guy or two miss this one
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You’re spot on timing wise. Though looking at the handle distro, there’s some discrepancies in money vs total tickets on the spread, which typically indicates sharp money is on the lesser bet side(bama), though it’s pretty darn close.
 
#258      
FloridaMan
NarrowJ said:
The line did just move toward Alabama by one point, Illini still favored -2.5

That happening right around shootaround time isn’t great news… think we’re still going to have a guy or two miss this one
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So, just thimking this through. Vegas has an informant in each arena that feeds info on shoot around participation? I don't doubt what you are saying one bit, just marveling at the lengths the industry will go to.
 
#259      
Illini4Christ
Illinois is the number one NCAA defensive team to avoid fouls this season. Will this matter in this game? Bama just comes down with the ball and fires 3’s. And if they get hot from 3’s, how will we counter them?
 
#260      
RollChief
PepeSilvia said:
Kempom ratings can't be compared year to year they only exist in a vacuum for the current year so I don't know where you're getting the top 10 offense part of the kenpom era from.
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Not trying to pick a fight here but that's not really true, KenPom stats are based on efficiency (points scored over 100 possessions) and there are adjustments made to account for SOS (by year and opponent, etc.) so it should be as honest of a fluid comparison as possible.

@21ChampaignSt maybe overstated how good the offense was slightly but not by much - 2024 Illinois offense was the 13th best in the KP era, but 10th best of the decade.

TeamYearOffensive Rating
1​
Duke
2025​
130.1​
2​
Wisconsin
2015​
129​
3​
Florida
2025​
128.2​
4​
Villanova
2018​
127.8​
5​
Duke
1999​
127.7​
6​
Connecticut
2024​
127.5​
7​
Auburn
2025​
127.2​
8​
Alabama
2025​
126.8​
9​
Baylor
2021​
126.4​
10​
UNC
1998​
126.3​
11​
Oklahoma St.
2017​
126​
12​
Alabama
2024​
126​
13​
Illinois
2024​
125.5​
 
#261      
IlliniFanTX
Illini4Christ said:
Illinois is the number one NCAA defensive team to avoid fouls this season. Will this matter in this game? Bama just comes down with the ball and fires 3’s. And if they get hot from 3’s, how will we counter them?
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Foul every possession to prevent the 3's

Think About It GIF by Identity
 
#262      
lstewart53x3
RollChief said:
Not trying to pick a fight here but that's not really true, KenPom stats are based on efficiency (points scored over 100 possessions) and there are adjustments made to account for SOS (by year and opponent, etc.) so it should be as honest of a fluid comparison as possible.

@21ChampaignSt maybe overstated how good the offense was slightly but not by much - 2024 Illinois offense was the 13th best in the KP era, but 10th best of the decade.

TeamYearOffensive Rating
1​
Duke
2025​
130.1​
2​
Wisconsin
2015​
129​
3​
Florida
2025​
128.2​
4​
Villanova
2018​
127.8​
5​
Duke
1999​
127.7​
6​
Connecticut
2024​
127.5​
7​
Auburn
2025​
127.2​
8​
Alabama
2025​
126.8​
9​
Baylor
2021​
126.4​
10​
UNC
1998​
126.3​
11​
Oklahoma St.
2017​
126​
12​
Alabama
2024​
126​
13​
Illinois
2024​
125.5​
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What’s crazy is, 4 of those of those top 13 came last year and another 3 came in 2024. That’s 7 of 13 in just 2 years.
 
#264      
Deep
The line dropped to -2.5 Illini
Maybe related to Tomi.....Only a guess on my part
 
#265      
NarrowJ
FloridaMan said:
So, just thimking this through. Vegas has an informant in each arena that feeds info on shoot around participation? I don't doubt what you are saying one bit, just marveling at the lengths the industry will go to.
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I don’t think there are “plants”

But it’s a time where everyone is mostly together and if a player is absent, that info gets out for sure

NBA shootarounds aren’t completely closed by any means, reporters attend, etc. Not sure on the exact protocol for college games, and it might be different/more open at the UC than in Champaign (no clue, really, just spitballing)
 
#266      
Illinifan1995--
NarrowJ said:
I don’t think there are “plants”

But it’s a time where everyone is mostly together and if a player is absent, that info gets out for sure

NBA shootarounds aren’t completely closed by any means, reporters attend, etc. Not sure on the exact protocol for college games, and it might be different/more open at the UC than in Champaign (no clue, really, just spitballing)
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Line moves based on bets, more $ on Alabama +3.5.. the line moves to make the betting on each side even. Sportsbooks make $ on the juice...
 
#268      
NarrowJ
RollChief said:
Not trying to pick a fight here but that's not really true, KenPom stats are based on efficiency (points scored over 100 possessions) and there are adjustments made to account for SOS (by year and opponent, etc.) so it should be as honest of a fluid comparison as possible.

@21ChampaignSt maybe overstated how good the offense was slightly but not by much - 2024 Illinois offense was the 13th best in the KP era, but 10th best of the decade.

TeamYearOffensive Rating
1​
Duke
2025​
130.1​
2​
Wisconsin
2015​
129​
3​
Florida
2025​
128.2​
4​
Villanova
2018​
127.8​
5​
Duke
1999​
127.7​
6​
Connecticut
2024​
127.5​
7​
Auburn
2025​
127.2​
8​
Alabama
2025​
126.8​
9​
Baylor
2021​
126.4​
10​
UNC
1998​
126.3​
11​
Oklahoma St.
2017​
126​
12​
Alabama
2024​
126​
13​
Illinois
2024​
125.5​
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You are killing it with the #s today, love it and please keep it coming.

Also I would argue that booty-balling and ISO actions actually ARE a scheme. It maximized our production and played to the teams’s strengths. We could’ve ran a bunch of fancy sets for Pepe to have some eye candy, but it wasn’t necessary and at the end of the day nobody can argue against the results.

Adding complexity for complexity’s sake doesn’t seem like a smart thing to me. Sometimes KISS is an actual thing, the straightest path between two points is a straight line, and all of that good stuff.
 
#269      
Second place is 1st loser
LouHenson said:
I just don’t understand this thought that many of us have? Why would it be tough for a 23 year old to play after like 6 weeks off? We act like it is just so impossible? He has been playing high level, pro really, basketball for like 5 years? I just don’t get the I will be shocked if he has an impact?

Tomi? Who knows BU had been purposefully evasive - season “not” ending knee? What is that? Either you have knee damage or you don’t? If your MCL, ACL, PCL are torn you won’t be playing?

BU is simply gaming this entire injury thing. Hopefully with the money in the college game this is not allowed in the future. Why is the NFL injury report so important? Because it is accurate as it must be by rule!
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It's not his age or experience. He'd be coming into this game/season 5 steps behind everyone else. That's just human nature, that's nothing derogatory towards Petrovic. Look at Stojakovic's first game, then the explosive jump to the next one. They weren't the same guy. It took 30 minutes of getting the rust off.

With regards to Tomi, just because you don't tear the knee up doesn't mean it doesn't hurt or get swollen. Sprained knees, ankles, wrists.....they hurt and they can be aggravated easily if not properly taken care of. I have absolutely no clue if those guys are going to play or not. Honestly, I don't think that BU does either, nor does a doctor. The body does what it does and if after a practice, a guy is down for three days because of pain the next day.....it's not worth it. I think that's the boat that Lee, both Ivisic's and Petrovic are in. You see how they feel this morning, you watch them warm up to see about mobility and make a decision.

Bama is an extremely athletic squad. Our advantages over them are height and skill and their advantages over us are speed, agility and explosiveness.

I'm hoping you're right and this is just gamesmanship. We're going to find out soon.
 
#272      
LouHenson
Illinifan1995-- said:
Line moves based on bets, more $ on Alabama +3.5.. the line moves to make the betting on each side even. Sportsbooks make $ on the juice...
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This is 100% the case, it has little if anything to do with observations at shoot around. What would stop a coach from simply not having players participate in shoot around? The line moves based on bets to each side almost exclusively this close to the game.
 
#273      
alaskaillini
illini0440 said:
Illinois by 8
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I think that is about right.
1. We have the crowd.
2. Our defense with Boswell, Andrej, and Wagler matches up well against their strengths.
3. Our frontcourt is better (and the rim protection is great when Z is in the game) so we should be able to focus on taking away the 3.
4. Our dibble penetration on offense should allow us to take a punch and keep up even of our 3s are not falling.
5. We don't foul a lot so they shouldn't get 20+ FTs and beat us from the line. And we are much bigger and pressure the rim so we will probably get 20+ FTs ourselves.
That said, they are coming off a loss and will be giving an all-out effort, so we are not going to be able to walk away from them. It will likely be a close game. Looking forward to watching.
Now if Z is limping and Tomi can't go, then it is a different story, and I think it is a toss-up or slight edge to Bama.
 
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#274      
doowink
Defense and rebounding will be the key for the Illini tonight (as with most nights)....but if the Illini contest the 3's....no wide open easy looks...and then rebound those misses....don't give Bama 2nd chances.....we should win....Imma gonna say double digits...(12 pts).....getter done boys...make it so
day guy GIF
 
#275      
LouHenson
Second place is 1st loser said:
It's not his age or experience. He'd be coming into this game/season 5 steps behind everyone else. That's just human nature, that's nothing derogatory towards Petrovic. Look at Stojakovic's first game, then the explosive jump to the next one. They weren't the same guy. It took 30 minutes of getting the rust off.

With regards to Tomi, just because you don't tear the knee up doesn't mean it doesn't hurt or get swollen. Sprained knees, ankles, wrists.....they hurt and they can be aggravated easily if not properly taken care of. I have absolutely no clue if those guys are going to play or not. Honestly, I don't think that BU does either, nor does a doctor. The body does what it does and if after a practice, a guy is down for three days because of pain the next day.....it's not worth it. I think that's the boat that Lee, both Ivisic's and Petrovic are in. You see how they feel this morning, you watch them warm up to see about mobility and make a decision.

Bama is an extremely athletic squad. Our advantages over them are height and skill and their advantages over us are speed, agility and explosiveness.

I'm hoping you're right and this is just gamesmanship. We're going to find out soon.
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I hear you, but my wife is a doctor (who coincidently tore her ACL/MCL 6 months ago. They MRI and that tells them surgery or no. After that the healing is relatively predictable. You are correct it could hurt, but structural damage is not present if you don’t have a tear.

As far as MP, I think the fact that he is 3 years (give or take) older than AS and has played at a very high level of European basketball certainly leads to him being less susceptible to extreme rust that a younger player would experience. I have an insider buddy in the program that swears this kid is unbelievable. If I am BU I try to exploit this?

Guess we will see?
 
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