Pregame: Illinois vs Alabama, Wednesday, November 19th, 8:00pm CT, FS1

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#276      
NarrowJ
LouHenson said:
This is 100% the case, it has little if anything to do with observations at shoot around. What would stop a coach from simply not having players participate in shoot around? The line moves based on bets to each side almost exclusively this close to the game.
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Well, connect the dots: bettors get info from shootaround, then make bets based upon that information, which moves the line
 
#277      
IllinoisIntegrity
A lot of unknowns without Tomi, Petrovic, and Lee. Then again, there would probably be more unknown with them, considering they have never played together,
 
#279      
RickBB
Opps…repost. But Billy Goat it is
 
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#281      
illinifan31
Personally extremely confused by parking situation at the UC here. Everything on Spothero is $40 or 20 minute walks, I see no ticketmaster parking offered. Usually Bulls games are like $24, is it more expensive than normal?
 
#282      
RichardKeenesCousin
IlliniFanTX said:
Foul every possession to prevent the 3's

Think About It GIF by Identity
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but only foul the times they were going to make 3's.
 
#283      
LouHenson
NarrowJ said:
Well, connect the dots: bettors get info from shootaround, then make bets based upon that information, which moves the line
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Just don’t see it? Dots were connected 3 days ago, it is all just pure games at this point. If the sport had a viable injury report, then it would be meaningful. Be really hard to bet based on some observers view of practice?
 
#285      
NarrowJ
LouHenson said:
Just don’t see it? Dots were connected 3 days ago, it is all just pure games at this point. If the sport had a viable injury report, then it would be meaningful. Be really hard to bet based on some observers view of practice?
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Not really, I see it every day. I’m not even really into sports betting, but I play DFS often (so I’m usually paying attention to these things throughout the day). It’s really pretty standard:

Wemby misses shootaround, Spurs line changes

Giannis misses shootaround, Bucks line changes

Doncic attends shootaround after an injury, Lakers line changes

Etcetera
 
#286      
thefalcon5
FWIW the Illini basketball instagram account posted a video slideshow and on the third slide in the far background you can see Tomi in the practice uniform.

Whether he plays remains to be seen, but it appears he was at least dressed and getting shots up earlier to some degree
 
#288      
Serious Late
Illinifan1995-- said:
Line moves based on bets, more $ on Alabama +3.5.. the line moves to make the betting on each side even. Sportsbooks make $ on the juice...
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Still not true. It may be some information leaked, but it is more likely that the line changed because sportsbooks increased their minimum maximum bet size and the line movement was a response to that. Circa increases their minimum max bet to $3,000 around noon CST on Gamedays. Its a common time to see line movement, not because of shoot arounds (maybe), but because the sharper bettors won't bet until they get a bump in their max bet.

Sportsbooks constantly have positions on games. Its great when it works out to 50/50, but if sharp betting groups pump 10K into a line, and the public takes the other side for 1 million dollars, the sportsbook will keep their line shaded to the $10K bet by sharp bettors.

I'm going to reiterate this enough times that the WHOLE board will know how this works. :cool:
 
#290      
Serious Late
LouHenson said:
This is 100% the case, it has little if anything to do with observations at shoot around. What would stop a coach from simply not having players participate in shoot around? The line moves based on bets to each side almost exclusively this close to the game.
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Not correct. Betting limits increased. Professional bettors then bet into them. That is why you see line movement around this time of day.
 
#292      
fuggles
NarrowJ said:
You are killing it with the #s today, love it and please keep it coming.

Also I would argue that booty-balling and ISO actions actually ARE a scheme. It maximized our production and played to the teams’s strengths. We could’ve ran a bunch of fancy sets for Pepe to have some eye candy, but it wasn’t necessary and at the end of the day nobody can argue against the results.

Adding complexity for complexity’s sake doesn’t seem like a smart thing to me. Sometimes KISS is an actual thing, the straightest path between two points is a straight line, and all of that good stuff.
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Didn't Wisconsin have that scheme for like 20 years? :)
 
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