foby
- Bonnaroo Land
Hear me out... Just beat Arkansas and Kansas and the road to the national championship gets a LOT easier.
Pregame: Illinois vs Arkansas, Thursday, March 16th, 3:30pm CT, TBS
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Wow, I just looked at this again, and we have not scored over 80 points in the NCAA Tournament since the Arizona comeback (90-89 win in OT).
We have not even broken 60 points in 6 of our last 7 NCAA games, with the only exception being our 2021 First Round matchup with Drexel as a #1 seed...I know defenses clamp up during the Tournament, but I am not sure it can be denied that we have appeared "tight" in the vast majority of our last several NCAA appearances. Here's to hoping a bit less pressure on this team this year makes that different.
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
Wow. That is kinda depressing.Wow, I just looked at this again, and we have not scored over 80 points in the NCAA Tournament since the Arizona comeback (90-89 win in OT).
I’m hoping at least for the last 2 tourneys our lack of experience + high expectations had us playing a little tight. Plus we weren’t healthy last year. This year I don’t think there’s any pressure at all and hopefully we come out loose. And hopefully Mayer and TJ’s experience helps too.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I'll counter that stat with something a bit more encouraging as I desperately try to get optimistic!
Excluding the COVID year where everyone played in Indiana, Illinois is 10-2 in First Weekend games (i.e., First/Second Round) when we get placed at a site in the Midwest since 2000!
2-0 in Chicago
2-0 in Dayton
4-1 in Indianapolis
2-1 in Columbus
I know, it's the same thing anyone else has to deal with and Arkansas really doesn't have THAT much further to go than we do to Des Moines (430 miles for them compared to 355 miles for us), and Kansas is closer than both, but ... I'm choosing to believe our Midwest good juju will continue!
Excluding the COVID year where everyone played in Indiana, Illinois is 10-2 in First Weekend games (i.e., First/Second Round) when we get placed at a site in the Midwest since 2000!
2-0 in Chicago
2-0 in Dayton
4-1 in Indianapolis
2-1 in Columbus
I know, it's the same thing anyone else has to deal with and Arkansas really doesn't have THAT much further to go than we do to Des Moines (430 miles for them compared to 355 miles for us), and Kansas is closer than both, but ... I'm choosing to believe our Midwest good juju will continue!
I think there is some truth to this, but if we look at the past two seasons the other teams have scouted us well and completely taken us out of our game offensively.Wow, I just looked at this again, and we have not scored over 80 points in the NCAA Tournament since the Arizona comeback (90-89 win in OT).
I know defenses clamp up during the Tournament, but I am not sure it can be denied that we have appeared "tight" in the vast majority of our last several NCAA appearances. Here's to hoping a bit less pressure on this team this year makes that different.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Also, while losing games always sucks, one's level of pessimism for this team will depend A LOT on what you think of the Big Ten. If you accept the narrative that no one is that good in our league, yeah ... we have just lost to quite a few of them. However, there is a positive spin to be had for our results in the last month or so:
1) 3-point loss at #4 seed Indiana without our best player.
2) Take care of business vs. Minnesota at home (with a fun last second-three so we don't win by more, of course).
3) Beat #7 seed Northwestern at home.
4) Lose a road game at OSU in one of our worst games. However, that same OSU team was CLEARLY getting a lot better, and they would go on to win 5 of their final 7 games, with 4 of those wins being over teams going to the NCAA Tournament. They finally ran out of gas vs. #1 seed Purdue.
5) Defeat a Michigan team at home that had just won three in a row and 6 out of their last 8.
6) Lose at #1 seed Purdue in a very close game in the toughest environment in the conference and one of the toughest in the nation.
7) Lose a close game to a PSU team that had won 8 of its last nine games (!!!), with SIX of those being over NCAA Tournament teams, before finally falling by TWO to #1 seed Purdue.
Again, if you think all of those teams (except maybe Purdue) are just mediocre, fine ... I get the pessimism. But even just taking perspective that PSU is currently primed for an upset run paints a much rosier picture for "where we stand." I was frustrated we couldn't close out PSU, but did we really play badly? I'd argue no. We definitely didn't play badly in the second half of the Purdue game or most of the Michigan game. There is a coherent argument to be made that we have actually been playing decent basketball over the last three games and it might do us some good to get out of the Big Ten.
EDIT:
This worked a lot better as a response to your post than just adding it on to my original one! I agree, and I am hoping this type of team will be different. Loyola was just a disaster, but whereas last year our offense was almost ENTIRELY set up to succeed against our Big Ten foes, you could argue this year it's exactly the opposite. I am really hoping that is the case, anyway.
1) 3-point loss at #4 seed Indiana without our best player.
2) Take care of business vs. Minnesota at home (with a fun last second-three so we don't win by more, of course).
3) Beat #7 seed Northwestern at home.
4) Lose a road game at OSU in one of our worst games. However, that same OSU team was CLEARLY getting a lot better, and they would go on to win 5 of their final 7 games, with 4 of those wins being over teams going to the NCAA Tournament. They finally ran out of gas vs. #1 seed Purdue.
5) Defeat a Michigan team at home that had just won three in a row and 6 out of their last 8.
6) Lose at #1 seed Purdue in a very close game in the toughest environment in the conference and one of the toughest in the nation.
7) Lose a close game to a PSU team that had won 8 of its last nine games (!!!), with SIX of those being over NCAA Tournament teams, before finally falling by TWO to #1 seed Purdue.
Again, if you think all of those teams (except maybe Purdue) are just mediocre, fine ... I get the pessimism. But even just taking perspective that PSU is currently primed for an upset run paints a much rosier picture for "where we stand." I was frustrated we couldn't close out PSU, but did we really play badly? I'd argue no. We definitely didn't play badly in the second half of the Purdue game or most of the Michigan game. There is a coherent argument to be made that we have actually been playing decent basketball over the last three games and it might do us some good to get out of the Big Ten.
EDIT:
This worked a lot better as a response to your post than just adding it on to my original one! I agree, and I am hoping this type of team will be different. Loyola was just a disaster, but whereas last year our offense was almost ENTIRELY set up to succeed against our Big Ten foes, you could argue this year it's exactly the opposite. I am really hoping that is the case, anyway.
Also we didn’t have our starting PG for the Purdue game, who I think would have been able to stem the tide enough that we may have been down, say 13 at the half vs. 21. At a minimum we wouldn’t have had the 2 “pick 2’s” Newman was able for force out of Shannon.
I have been as frustrated by the inconsistency of the Illini this year as anyone. I thought they might blend this talent into an "elite" squad. But, the records are nearly identical. Arkansas has also not only lost 6 of their last 9, but are 9-11 in 2023. The Illini are 11-8. Also, Devonte Davis is a starting guard for them, and he is 6'4". This might allow Epps to play more, as it's only a 2" deficit. I will say that we could be blown out if we don't bring our energy and game for most of the game. But, I'm not as negative about this matchup as some here are. Memphis, Iowa, and Maryland are the other #8 seeds, and I'm not convinced that they would be any easier. Since Maryland and Iowa weren't possible first round foes, I definitely like the Arkansas better than Memphis. We got a shot at this - that's all I can ask.
I've always thought Arkansas was a very similar program to ours. Historically solid with eras of greatness but have never quite moved into those top 2 echelons (or haven't sustained that status for long anyway) and because of that, are often overlooked nationally.
And actually, after looking at the numbers, Arkansas outranks us in most historical categories. Wasn't expecting that.
Both schools are top 15 all time in win percentage.
Arkansas has 24 conference titles to our 18.
Arkansas has 35 tournament appearances to our 33.
Arkansas with 6 Final Fours to our 5.
And of course 1 NCAA championship to our 0.
Makes Thursdays matchup between our carbon copy teams even more intriguing, IMO.
And actually, after looking at the numbers, Arkansas outranks us in most historical categories. Wasn't expecting that.
Both schools are top 15 all time in win percentage.
Arkansas has 24 conference titles to our 18.
Arkansas has 35 tournament appearances to our 33.
Arkansas with 6 Final Fours to our 5.
And of course 1 NCAA championship to our 0.
Makes Thursdays matchup between our carbon copy teams even more intriguing, IMO.
I don't mind the 3's if they're good shots. Not contested or Steph Curry range 3's. Take open smart shots. Know the time and place when taking those shots. Just play smart, fundamentally sound basketball! Do the little things and leave it all on the floor. Give maximum effort and let the chips fall where they may. I believe they'll end in victory!
we need a vegas like turnout!!
This is vomit-inducing
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
Agreed. We should shoot most of our threes off of drive and kicks for maximum efficiency.
Absolutely. Driving under control of course. I think TSJ could get about 6 or 7 assist this game on those exact types of plays. And Coleman needs to get in that paint more to rebound and get second chance points. Just please don't get any silly unnecessary fouls.
Might be for a "session"? 2 or 4 games that day.
Yes in the open court. In the half court, I gotta say I've been closing my eyes when he drives. Probably selective memory, but it seems to me that he's been turning it over on those as much as he's been scoring. I keep hoping for more drives AND DISHES.
Fwiw, here are his assist and turnover numbers since the Wisconsin game:
1 and 6 (ug)
5 and 3 (yay!)
1 and 4
1 and 1
4 and 2 (yay!)
0 and 3 (double ug)
2 and 4
4 and 2 (yay)
2 and 6
4 and 2 (yay)
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
While I am sure there will be a TON of tickets bought up by Kansas fans (teams that are a #1 seed tend to energize their fans to travel a bit more than #9 seeds...), I think there will be a pretty good Illini showing. Also, should we be fortunate enough to be in a Sweet Sixteen, I expect DROVES of Illini fans in Vegas, tough probably not as dominant as the November tournament.
Looking back at our draws since 2000, while we will likely never get such a "stars have aligned" path as 2005, our locations this time around are about as good as we have had, especially considering Vegas is apparently like Chicago to Illini fans now.
(Year: First Weekend --> Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight --> Final Four)
2023: Des Moines, IA --> Las Vegas, NV --> Houston, TX
2022: Pittsburgh, PA --> San Antonio, TX --> New Orleans, LA
2021: Indianapolis, IN all the way but limited fan capacity
2013: Austin, TX --> Washington, DC --> Atlanta, GA
2011: Tulsa, OK --> San Antonio, TX --> Houston, TX
2009: Portland, OR --> Memphis, TN --> Detroit, MI
2007: Columbus, OH --> San Jose, CA --> Atlanta, GA
2006: San Diego, CA --> Washington, DC --> Indianapolis, IN
2005: Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO
2004: Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA --> San Antonio, TX
2003: Indianapolis, IN --> Anaheim, CA --> New Orleans, LA
2002: Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI --> Atlanta, GA
2001: Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX --> Minneapolis, MN
2000: Winston-Salem, NC --> Syracuse, NY --> Indianapolis, IN
As far as Illini being able to get to the games and the relative appeal for the destinations to our fan base, these are probably the best two sites we have had in the last 25 years besides the dream scenario of 2005 and maybe 2002. Hoping Illini Nation shows up in full force!
Playing 'tight' and nervous is fatal in this sport. If you are in that frame of body and mind then you may as well just not even leave the locker room and take the floor. You simply CAN NOT play tight as a drum and win.
That does not mean you do not feel the pressure or the heat of the moment. Of course you will.
But the difference between Winners and Losers is that Winners have learned how to get past the tension and pressure and to transcend it... play outside and above it... or purge it outright. Those that lose in those games do not.
And as far as the Illini... this is a Chicken and Egg thing. Do the Illini lessen the pressure they feel by succeeding on the court first (which seems not possible based upon my ‘pressure’ scenario)... or can they release the pressure first and THEN they will succeed on the court?
The answer is release the pressure and tension first. Because when you are tense your mind is out of whack and your body is off and not releasing your shot right... forcing bad passes... missing defensive assignments... missing free throws... so victory is virtually impossible. In fact, the only way you can possibly win that way is if your opponent is playing even worse than you are. Not a good strategy to wait for.
The longer you go without success in the tournament the more the pressure can build up. The Illini will either break that spell this time around... or they will when when they get the guys on the court that have the floor presence to not let the tension get to them.
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
good god, why did you post this? even so, why did i read this?Wow, I just looked at this again, and we have not scored over 80 points in the NCAA Tournament since the Arizona comeback (90-89 win in OT).
I know defenses clamp up during the Tournament, but I am not sure it can be denied that we have appeared "tight" in the vast majority of our last several NCAA appearances. Here's to hoping a bit less pressure on this team this year makes that different.
amazing futility stat (points) that i did not realize,
i guess i'll take the under
Arkansas is favored by 2.5. Do you all think Vegas views Des Moines as a neutral site or would Arkansas be favored by more in a non Midwest location?
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