Pregame: Illinois vs Baylor, Wednesday, December 2nd, 9:00pm CT, ESPN
- Status
Ok, here goes nothin'. Admittedly, I haven't watched a ton of Illini/B1G ball in the past 12 months, so I hope I can do your squad justice. The little I do know is that Kofi Cockburn is a beast, and that your guards can fill it up in a hurry, especially Ayo Dosunmu.
Baylor Strengths: Defense, offensive rebounding, and extremely unselfish play offensively.
Baylor is really good defensively. Davion Mitchell might be the best one-on-one defensive guard in the country, and Mark Vital is a contender for DPOY. Outside of those two, the rest of the squad knows their roles and are great on rotations in the half-court. Baylor has been one of the consistently best offensive rebounding teams in the country for years, and crashing the offensive glass is something that is in the team's DNA at this point. With the guards on this team, it'd be easy for egos to get involved, but the team is unselfish, almost to a fault. The top 4 guards will all defer to one another if one guy has the hot hand, and with 4 of them, it's very unlikely that more than 2 have an off night at a time.
Baylor Weaknesses: The 5 spot, turnovers, FT shooting, and scoring droughts.
Tristan Clark was projected to man the middle, and was among the most efficient players in the country in 2018-19. Unfortunately, he suffered a pretty significant knee injury early in conference play that season and was never able to fully work his way back. He medically retired from basketball a few weeks ago, and while many in the Baylor fanbase took this as a sign that he had been beaten out and we would be fine at 5, I'm not so convinced. Flo Thamba struggles against athletic big men, and JTT is still getting up to speed after not playing for two years.
Baylor is also prone to turning the ball over, and will let teams hang around that have no business being in the game through sloppy play. FT shooting has also been an issue, and although the guards are nails from a FT% standpoint, we can have inexplicable streaks of misses as a team. Vital and Thamba are very poor FT shooters. Baylor also played in a lot of close games that shouldn't have been close last season, due to the fact that they would get up 12-15 points and then just...stop scoring. For long stretches at a time. Interim Coach Jerome Tang mentioned in the Washington postgame that this has been a point of emphasis this year, but it cost us in a few games last year (Washington, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas).
Baylor Starting 5:
G: Davion Mitchell (6'2", 205 lbs, JR) - A former Auburn transfer, Mitchell is lightning quick, supremely athletic, and typically is assigned the role of guarding the other team's best perimeter player. He can get to the rim at will, but had some trouble finishing, and while he shot a respectable 32% from 3 last year, he's not a volume shooter and can be very streaky.
G: Jared Butler (6'3", 195 lbs, JR) - Butler is Baylor's best NBA prospect and is the star of the team, if you had to name one guy. He has fantastic handles and can light it up from well beyond college 3-point range (38% 3PT shooter last season).
G: MaCio Teague (6'4", 195 lbs, SR) - A former UNC-Greensboro transfer, Teague probably has the most swagger on the team. A 36% 3PT shooter, he can just as easily score 20+ or be held to under 10, and if there's a game we lost last year that we shouldn't have, it was usually because he didn't have a great game. In fairness to MaCio, he did have a midseason wrist injury that required offseason surgery. He's a serviceable defender, but of the starting 5, he's probably the weakest on the defensive end.
F: Mark Vital (6'5", 250 lbs, SR) - Nicknamed "Mr. 95," because he does the 95% of things that don't show up in the box score, Vital is Baylor's version of Draymond Green. He sets the tone, provides energy, rebounds like a madman, runs the floor, and is a fantastic defender. When he exited the Washington game the other night with Baylor up big and under 4 minutes to go, he had more rebounds (15) than the entire Washington team did (14). He was called "the best player in the country who will never have a play run for him" the other night by Seth Greenburg, and it is probably not an exaggeration. He's less of an offensive threat than Draymond was at Michigan State, and is not nearly as trollish. He's not a threat to shoot, and his points will be on rim runs, lobs, in transition, or on offensive putbacks.
F: Flo Thamba (6'10", 245 lbs, JR) - Flo Thamba (rhymes with Mo Bamba) is sort of a hybrid 4/5. He typically matches up against bigs when he plays, and is sound defensively, but struggles with more athletic big men. Oscar Tshiebwe of West Virginia ate his lunch in Morgantown in our regular season finale. He's not much of a threat to score, relying mostly on putbacks and dump-offs in the lane from penetrating guards. His role last year was to provide minutes when we had foul trouble, and he filled it well. The jury is still out if he's up to the task of an expanded role against top flight competition.
Bench (in order of usage):
G: Adam Flagler (6'3", 180 lbs, SO) - Flagler is instant offense. He is filling the role of Devonte Bandoo this year, and is almost identical to Bandoo in size. For reference, Bandoo averaged 7.6 PPG on 38% shooting from 3. Flagler is a better shooter, however. He averaged almost 16 points a game as a true freshman at Presbyterian, hit over 100 3s, and was the Big South Freshman of the Year before transferring to a bigger stage.
F: Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (6'8", 245 lbs, SO) - JTT is a UNLV transfer, and is probably a guy who will be starting by midseason over Thamba, if I had to bet on it. He's an athletic big who can run the floor, although his conditioning is not where it needs to be after not playing for a few years. His scoring will likely be similar to Vital's - putbacks, transition, and dump-offs.
F: Matthew Mayer (6'9, 225 lbs, JR) - Mayer has evolved from the ultimate irrational confidence guy as a freshman to a guy who can harken back to another Baylor great on occasion: Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson. Mayer had 5 double-digit scoring games last season, and in all of them he played 20 minutes or fewer. The hope this year is that he's taken the next step into being a guy you can rely on every night. Last season, he either put up a line like this one in the West Virginia game in Waco: 17 minutes played, 13 points, 8 rebounds, or he'll come in, jack up a couple of wild shots, commit a couple of silly fouls, and you won't hear from him the rest of the night. You'll know in the first few minutes he's in the game what kind of night it's going to be. I will say, when he's on, Baylor is near unbeatable.
G: LJ Cryer (6'1", 185 lbs, FR) - The PG of the future, he's a 4* recruit out of Houston. I didn't think he'd get a ton of run this early on, but he went 5-7 from 3 in the game against Louisiana on Saturday and finished with 17 points. His minutes will likely be determined by matchup and foul trouble.
You may see F Zach Loveday (7'0", 215 lbs, FR) and G/F Jordan Turner (6'8", 195 lbs, RsFR) with some spot minutes, but those guys are probably a year or two away from contributing and likely won't be in the rotation by midseason.
As to how I see the game going, I think there are a couple of factors at play. We don't have the bodies to defend Cockburn down low. Watching Cockburn reminds me of a slightly shorter, more offensively skilled, slightly less athletic Udoka Azubuike from Kansas the last few years. We've had very mixed results against players like that. In the game in Lawrence last year, we doubled before the entry pass was even made and it threw KU off their game. I wouldn't be surprised if we tried some of that on Wednesday and let the chips fall where they may, trying to make other players beat us. Conversely, Kansas had a plan to counter that scheme in the return to Waco and Azubuike absolutely annihilated us. It was still a close game down the stretch, but I think Illinois' best shot is to emulate the KU gameplan from last year and get Cockburn involved in the pick-n-roll early in possessions, and outside the paint. From there, he can either kick out from the inevitable double team, or he and Dosunmu can go matchup hunting.
One underrated aspect is officiating. If the game is called loosely, I think it favors Baylor. We're going to get up in your grill and likely double-team Cockburn at every opportunity. If the refs let them play, I could pretty easily see a scenario in which the Illini get frustrated and the game could get out of hand fairly quickly.
If it's called tightly, it could go either way. Our bigs are prone to foul trouble, especially Thamba and Vital, and a tight whistle could have those guys on the bench for long stretches, which obviously favors the Illini. The other side of that coin is it could land Cockburn in foul trouble, with the amount that he contests shots in the paint. If that happens, it becomes guards versus guards, and I think that matchup favors Baylor. I'm a little surprised the line is as close as it is, and I assume Vegas knows something I don't. My prediction is a game in the mid-70s for the winning squad, and I'm gonna go with the homer pick and say Baylor wins it 74-67.
Happy to answer any questions that you guys might have.
Baylor Strengths: Defense, offensive rebounding, and extremely unselfish play offensively.
Baylor is really good defensively. Davion Mitchell might be the best one-on-one defensive guard in the country, and Mark Vital is a contender for DPOY. Outside of those two, the rest of the squad knows their roles and are great on rotations in the half-court. Baylor has been one of the consistently best offensive rebounding teams in the country for years, and crashing the offensive glass is something that is in the team's DNA at this point. With the guards on this team, it'd be easy for egos to get involved, but the team is unselfish, almost to a fault. The top 4 guards will all defer to one another if one guy has the hot hand, and with 4 of them, it's very unlikely that more than 2 have an off night at a time.
Baylor Weaknesses: The 5 spot, turnovers, FT shooting, and scoring droughts.
Tristan Clark was projected to man the middle, and was among the most efficient players in the country in 2018-19. Unfortunately, he suffered a pretty significant knee injury early in conference play that season and was never able to fully work his way back. He medically retired from basketball a few weeks ago, and while many in the Baylor fanbase took this as a sign that he had been beaten out and we would be fine at 5, I'm not so convinced. Flo Thamba struggles against athletic big men, and JTT is still getting up to speed after not playing for two years.
Baylor is also prone to turning the ball over, and will let teams hang around that have no business being in the game through sloppy play. FT shooting has also been an issue, and although the guards are nails from a FT% standpoint, we can have inexplicable streaks of misses as a team. Vital and Thamba are very poor FT shooters. Baylor also played in a lot of close games that shouldn't have been close last season, due to the fact that they would get up 12-15 points and then just...stop scoring. For long stretches at a time. Interim Coach Jerome Tang mentioned in the Washington postgame that this has been a point of emphasis this year, but it cost us in a few games last year (Washington, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas).
Baylor Starting 5:
G: Davion Mitchell (6'2", 205 lbs, JR) - A former Auburn transfer, Mitchell is lightning quick, supremely athletic, and typically is assigned the role of guarding the other team's best perimeter player. He can get to the rim at will, but had some trouble finishing, and while he shot a respectable 32% from 3 last year, he's not a volume shooter and can be very streaky.
G: Jared Butler (6'3", 195 lbs, JR) - Butler is Baylor's best NBA prospect and is the star of the team, if you had to name one guy. He has fantastic handles and can light it up from well beyond college 3-point range (38% 3PT shooter last season).
G: MaCio Teague (6'4", 195 lbs, SR) - A former UNC-Greensboro transfer, Teague probably has the most swagger on the team. A 36% 3PT shooter, he can just as easily score 20+ or be held to under 10, and if there's a game we lost last year that we shouldn't have, it was usually because he didn't have a great game. In fairness to MaCio, he did have a midseason wrist injury that required offseason surgery. He's a serviceable defender, but of the starting 5, he's probably the weakest on the defensive end.
F: Mark Vital (6'5", 250 lbs, SR) - Nicknamed "Mr. 95," because he does the 95% of things that don't show up in the box score, Vital is Baylor's version of Draymond Green. He sets the tone, provides energy, rebounds like a madman, runs the floor, and is a fantastic defender. When he exited the Washington game the other night with Baylor up big and under 4 minutes to go, he had more rebounds (15) than the entire Washington team did (14). He was called "the best player in the country who will never have a play run for him" the other night by Seth Greenburg, and it is probably not an exaggeration. He's less of an offensive threat than Draymond was at Michigan State, and is not nearly as trollish. He's not a threat to shoot, and his points will be on rim runs, lobs, in transition, or on offensive putbacks.
F: Flo Thamba (6'10", 245 lbs, JR) - Flo Thamba (rhymes with Mo Bamba) is sort of a hybrid 4/5. He typically matches up against bigs when he plays, and is sound defensively, but struggles with more athletic big men. Oscar Tshiebwe of West Virginia ate his lunch in Morgantown in our regular season finale. He's not much of a threat to score, relying mostly on putbacks and dump-offs in the lane from penetrating guards. His role last year was to provide minutes when we had foul trouble, and he filled it well. The jury is still out if he's up to the task of an expanded role against top flight competition.
Bench (in order of usage):
G: Adam Flagler (6'3", 180 lbs, SO) - Flagler is instant offense. He is filling the role of Devonte Bandoo this year, and is almost identical to Bandoo in size. For reference, Bandoo averaged 7.6 PPG on 38% shooting from 3. Flagler is a better shooter, however. He averaged almost 16 points a game as a true freshman at Presbyterian, hit over 100 3s, and was the Big South Freshman of the Year before transferring to a bigger stage.
F: Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (6'8", 245 lbs, SO) - JTT is a UNLV transfer, and is probably a guy who will be starting by midseason over Thamba, if I had to bet on it. He's an athletic big who can run the floor, although his conditioning is not where it needs to be after not playing for a few years. His scoring will likely be similar to Vital's - putbacks, transition, and dump-offs.
F: Matthew Mayer (6'9, 225 lbs, JR) - Mayer has evolved from the ultimate irrational confidence guy as a freshman to a guy who can harken back to another Baylor great on occasion: Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson. Mayer had 5 double-digit scoring games last season, and in all of them he played 20 minutes or fewer. The hope this year is that he's taken the next step into being a guy you can rely on every night. Last season, he either put up a line like this one in the West Virginia game in Waco: 17 minutes played, 13 points, 8 rebounds, or he'll come in, jack up a couple of wild shots, commit a couple of silly fouls, and you won't hear from him the rest of the night. You'll know in the first few minutes he's in the game what kind of night it's going to be. I will say, when he's on, Baylor is near unbeatable.
G: LJ Cryer (6'1", 185 lbs, FR) - The PG of the future, he's a 4* recruit out of Houston. I didn't think he'd get a ton of run this early on, but he went 5-7 from 3 in the game against Louisiana on Saturday and finished with 17 points. His minutes will likely be determined by matchup and foul trouble.
You may see F Zach Loveday (7'0", 215 lbs, FR) and G/F Jordan Turner (6'8", 195 lbs, RsFR) with some spot minutes, but those guys are probably a year or two away from contributing and likely won't be in the rotation by midseason.
As to how I see the game going, I think there are a couple of factors at play. We don't have the bodies to defend Cockburn down low. Watching Cockburn reminds me of a slightly shorter, more offensively skilled, slightly less athletic Udoka Azubuike from Kansas the last few years. We've had very mixed results against players like that. In the game in Lawrence last year, we doubled before the entry pass was even made and it threw KU off their game. I wouldn't be surprised if we tried some of that on Wednesday and let the chips fall where they may, trying to make other players beat us. Conversely, Kansas had a plan to counter that scheme in the return to Waco and Azubuike absolutely annihilated us. It was still a close game down the stretch, but I think Illinois' best shot is to emulate the KU gameplan from last year and get Cockburn involved in the pick-n-roll early in possessions, and outside the paint. From there, he can either kick out from the inevitable double team, or he and Dosunmu can go matchup hunting.
One underrated aspect is officiating. If the game is called loosely, I think it favors Baylor. We're going to get up in your grill and likely double-team Cockburn at every opportunity. If the refs let them play, I could pretty easily see a scenario in which the Illini get frustrated and the game could get out of hand fairly quickly.
If it's called tightly, it could go either way. Our bigs are prone to foul trouble, especially Thamba and Vital, and a tight whistle could have those guys on the bench for long stretches, which obviously favors the Illini. The other side of that coin is it could land Cockburn in foul trouble, with the amount that he contests shots in the paint. If that happens, it becomes guards versus guards, and I think that matchup favors Baylor. I'm a little surprised the line is as close as it is, and I assume Vegas knows something I don't. My prediction is a game in the mid-70s for the winning squad, and I'm gonna go with the homer pick and say Baylor wins it 74-67.
Happy to answer any questions that you guys might have.
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I'm curious to see the rotation. I wonder if it will shorten up to the starters, plus GB, and JG. I'll be curious to see how much AC plays too or any others. AC and Kofi made a lot of the TOs and it will be interesting to see how much BU trust the freshman vs such still competition. I wouldnt be shocked to see a lot more TF and his experience running the show at the 1 to help limit TOsBaylor is great at causing turnovers, and the first few games have been suspect at times taking care of the ball. Seems to me we'll be yelling at the tv a bunch during the game.
Hoping most of it is for great plays from our guys
Awesome write-up, thanks for swinging by to visit. I don't have the time to reply in kind, but I'll hit a few highlights.
If Baylor is as turnover-prone as you claim, and the bug bites them against Illinois, it could be a long night for our favorite Texan Ursine Baptists. Underwood defenses, when run properly, like to disrupt passing lanes and create a transition environment for Ayo & Co. to burn teams. On the flipside, we have a stable of guards that include two true freshmen, one of which appears (Curbelo) to have been handed the keys as a pure 1 for stretches. He's made some boneheaded plays, as you would expect from a true freshman getting used to the game. Baylor would be smart to get aggressive when he is running the point. If it's Ayo or Trent Frazier running the point, good luck. Ayo is simply one of the best players in the country, and Frazier had a lengthy streak last year where he both played heavy minutes and never turned the ball over.
And I laughed when you brought up scoring droughts. If we had to summarize the past ten years of Illinois basketball with as broad a brush as possible, we'd call it "extended scoring droughts with periodic bouts of decent basketball being played.""
I think the entire game hinges on who is feeling it from beyond the arc. Could end up being a pretty streaky game for both teams. I hope we feed Cockburn in the paint if your 5 situation is as tenuous as you suggest. On the flipside, we are nervous about our 4 slot, as two of ours are hurt.
Looking forward to a great game that could go any way, in my mind. For now, I'm enjoying relevance after way too long of a break from that.
If Baylor is as turnover-prone as you claim, and the bug bites them against Illinois, it could be a long night for our favorite Texan Ursine Baptists. Underwood defenses, when run properly, like to disrupt passing lanes and create a transition environment for Ayo & Co. to burn teams. On the flipside, we have a stable of guards that include two true freshmen, one of which appears (Curbelo) to have been handed the keys as a pure 1 for stretches. He's made some boneheaded plays, as you would expect from a true freshman getting used to the game. Baylor would be smart to get aggressive when he is running the point. If it's Ayo or Trent Frazier running the point, good luck. Ayo is simply one of the best players in the country, and Frazier had a lengthy streak last year where he both played heavy minutes and never turned the ball over.
And I laughed when you brought up scoring droughts. If we had to summarize the past ten years of Illinois basketball with as broad a brush as possible, we'd call it "extended scoring droughts with periodic bouts of decent basketball being played.""
I think the entire game hinges on who is feeling it from beyond the arc. Could end up being a pretty streaky game for both teams. I hope we feed Cockburn in the paint if your 5 situation is as tenuous as you suggest. On the flipside, we are nervous about our 4 slot, as two of ours are hurt.
Looking forward to a great game that could go any way, in my mind. For now, I'm enjoying relevance after way too long of a break from that.
Can't wait for tip off. It is so great to be relevant again
Just feed BU this..."emulate the KU gameplan from last year and get Cockburn involved in the pick-n-roll early in possessions, and outside the paint"
As someone said earlier ...get boards and minimize TOs. I believe this will likely decide our fate
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
I don't either. At all. But according to the records we started off at #3 that year, beat (unranked) Gonzaga in our opener and moved to #2, where we stayed until losing to AZ in early Dec. and slipping to #5. We bumped around between #5-10 until losing three straight in late Jan. and then were in the top 10-21 the rest of the way. That was the season Frankie put the boys on his back in the Barn to beat MN and get a slice of the title.
Any word on BBV. He was supposed to play in December. I heard he was running sprints before the last game.
Reading this has been great... the scouting report, the predictions.
My only addition would be that Kofi is big, yes, but he is not yet "skilled". If Baylor doubles him... or if he's forced to make moves with the ball, Baylor could gain 12 possessions on us...
I think feeding Kofi efficiently and in the right manner, will be key and could help.
But this game will be won and/or lost, by the guards of each team, IMO. I hope Kofi surprises me, because it SHOULD be an advantage... but I think this will require Ayo, TF, Miller, DW to play very well... and Kofi finding a way to go 14-12.
either way, this is going to be fun.
My only addition would be that Kofi is big, yes, but he is not yet "skilled". If Baylor doubles him... or if he's forced to make moves with the ball, Baylor could gain 12 possessions on us...
I think feeding Kofi efficiently and in the right manner, will be key and could help.
But this game will be won and/or lost, by the guards of each team, IMO. I hope Kofi surprises me, because it SHOULD be an advantage... but I think this will require Ayo, TF, Miller, DW to play very well... and Kofi finding a way to go 14-12.
either way, this is going to be fun.
DB11Headband
- Chicago Burbs
Agreed that the guard play will dictate the winner, and we have the best guard in the nation IMO. Ayo has shown time and time again that he is a stone cold killer-I think he will show that he is the best player on the floor and will be able to knife through Baylor’s D at will.Reading this has been great... the scouting report, the predictions.
My only addition would be that Kofi is big, yes, but he is not yet "skilled". If Baylor doubles him... or if he's forced to make moves with the ball, Baylor could gain 12 possessions on us...
I think feeding Kofi efficiently and in the right manner, will be key and could help.
But this game will be won and/or lost, by the guards of each team, IMO. I hope Kofi surprises me, because it SHOULD be an advantage... but I think this will require Ayo, TF, Miller, DW to play very well... and Kofi finding a way to go 14-12.
either way, this is going to be fun.
Ubermensch
BOOM! Feed my ego.
I was looking at Ayo's numbers. Is it safe to say no UI player has ever averaged 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists over a 3 game stretch?
Ayo and Ace went 1/8 against Ohio from three. Don’t believe we can win with those no’s. On the other hand DaMonte, Trent, and Belo went 5/6 from three which isn’t likely to be repeated. Believe we are going to need Belo as we really don’t have guard depth at this point and they do. Maybe if they play Jac and DaMonte at the same time it lengthens the bench. Otherwise foul problems on Trent, Ace or Ayo will be a problem.
altenberger22
- South Carolina
Beyond my research capabilities..........but the only names that come to mind are these. Prolific scoring is the first requirement, which all six probably achieved in a 3-game stretch. I doubt Dave, Eddie, Deon and Andy ever had 7 assists in a single game, let alone "averaged" 7 over three games.`
Don Freeman
Dave Sholz
Eddie Johnson
Deon Thomas
Andy Kaufmann
Brandon Paul
Conclusion: I think you're probably right!!
Retro62
- North Bethesda, Maryland
As an English teacher, I endorse this post.
altenberger22
- South Carolina
About to make my Wednesday night prediction. Definitely going to forecast an Illini victory. And I actually think our big guys --- Kofi and Giorgi --- will be the difference. Guards from both teams will offset one another.
ILL - 84 BAY- 80
Game looks good, two good teams. Seems both are a bit undersized but play hard. Wish game time was earlier for me.
For those looking for how Baylor sites are talking about the game, the Baylor SB nation site, OurDailyBears, posted this last night: Baylor-Illinois Preview.
The author, Kendall Kaut, is one of the better Baylor hoops writers.
The author, Kendall Kaut, is one of the better Baylor hoops writers.
altenberger22
- South Carolina
Super write-up! That guy has really done his homework. I like a lot of what he says, except I'll go with my own prediction. I also think Kofi and Giorgi will be the difference makers down low. I'm going with my heart in this one, but I would not place any money on it. Should be entertaining!
ILL 83
BAY 80
Dan
Admin
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I'm seeing -2.5 Baylor currently
- Status