Watched that game last night against Colorado. BYU outclassed athletically but seemed to be in control all game. Kept looking at score and could not figure out how Colorado was close. They are a tough team that plays smart and were able to shoot it last night. Clearly have had a rough time shooting the 3 before yesterday but played really well. If we can get the W, it will be a good one on the resume as I think BYU will get better as the year progresses. Will need to be really smart with the ball and get the loose balls and play defense. They also showed some good trapping defense late which does not bode well based upon our play so far this year. It will be a really good test.
Pregame: Illinois vs BYU (United Center), Saturday, December 17th, 8:30pm CT, BTN
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Watched that game last night against Colorado. BYU outclassed athletically but seemed to be in control all game. Kept looking at score and could not figure out how Colorado was close. They are a tough team that plays smart and were able to shoot it last night. Clearly have had a rough time shooting the 3 before yesterday but played really well. If we can get the W, it will be a good one on the resume as I think BYU will get better as the year progresses. Will need to be really smart with the ball and get the loose balls and play defense. They also showed some good trapping defense late which does not bode well based upon our play so far this year. It will be a really good test.
There are poorly informed posters for every game --I don't think that kind of anecdote takes away from the usefulness of analytical tools, especially when you consider any sample of 1 game is nearly useless/highly variable.
Since that info is still available, I took a look at KenPom 2014. Oregon was 28th in the nation. Illinois was 52nd. Interestingly, his efficiency margin has them about 6 points better. As far as 'at the time', they lost to 2 ranked teams early in the season, so they may well have been lower. OTOH, we'd done exactly the same, lost to 2 ranked teams.
Anyway, as far as I can tell, it's the best info we have --projecting teams at the end of the season seems like voodoo, with the possible exception of Michigan State, which has a long history of biting off more than they can chew early, and using it to great affect later in the season.
If your point is that we don't know where they will trend, I agree completely. Some of the early games can look a lot different come March. I just wish we these discussions were about what seed we deserve, rather than how many more good wins we'll need to get on the good side of the bubble.
BYU is very close to us in the metrics I tend to look at. Should be a good game. I like the little bit of momentum we've built, and have really enjoyed seeing some toughness from Tracy and especially Black. If Kipper comes in with a chip on his shoulder, I'm hoping he can give us some offense for defense looks late in game, which can be a big deal. Even if he just brings in some toughness off the bench, this team can really use it.
They don't have a ton of size so our front court will be key. I have this vision of a lineup of Black, Kipper, DJW, Hill, and Abrams. A bunch of energetic 6'6-7" guys who can run the floor, play D, and still rebound at some point this season.
Gotta make Mika and their guards work for their points and win the rebounding battle. I hope that this is the last major change to our rotation with Kipper now entering the fold. As others said, I'm optimistic about what he can contribute off the bench.
Gotta make Mika and their guards work for their points and win the rebounding battle. I hope that this is the last major change to our rotation with Kipper now entering the fold. As others said, I'm optimistic about what he can contribute off the bench.
FYI, in regards to Oregon I believe you are looking at the wrong year. In the KenPom data 2014-15 is listed under 2015. Going into the game Oregon was 69 and Illinois was 30. Combine this and the fact it was at the UC most fans expected an Illini victory. In hindsight Oregon went on to finish with a KP rating of 45 versus the Illini at 60 so they proved to be the better team.
According to ESPN, it was Dec 13, 2014 that we lost 77-70, and you're right, in the 2015 data they are 45th, not 28th. We finished 60th. The two losses against ranked teams is correct. Where do you see their ranking going into the game?
Illini1221
Peru,IL
I think Saturday should be a great game. BYU seems like they play together great as a team. That being said, I really think our guys are starting to connect well together. If we can force them to take a lot of contested 3's and keep Leron out of foul trouble, I think we have an advantage. Also, if Childs for BYU gets any good looks around the rim, they need to foul him hard.. He is a terrible free throw shooter ( 40ish percent i believe). They obviously have superior guard play with Emery and Haws, so our guards need to be efficient defensively and take care of the basketball. If we allow them to get into the lane at ease, then we will be in big trouble. Also, hopefully their experience playing in 2 NBA arenas already (Barclays, and American Airlines) has them adjusted to the bigger setting of the UC.
In order to see a team's ranking before the game you have to go to that team's page. On the team page the first number by a particular game is the team's rank entering the game. The second number is the opponent's current rank. The second number can obviously change as the season progresses but the first number stays the same. I went Oregon's page and looked at the number listed for their game against the Illini.
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BYU has one very bad lost Utah Valley (#235) and probably only one good win (Colorado #56). From seeing video on them from a couple of weeks I thought they were not the most athletic team. I don't think they are a deep team as well. Need to see what Valpo, Utah Valley, and USC did to beat them.
I would think the key would be to be patient with low turnovers, but to push the ball when opportunities exist. Make there players guard, especially their bigs. Draw fouls on them and get us in the bonus early.
I think we can beat them if we continue to play the way we have played the last 4 games. Just need more grit than we did against UIPUI. Hoping to see Kipper, can't expect much since minutes will be limited and he will likely be very rusty.
I would think the key would be to be patient with low turnovers, but to push the ball when opportunities exist. Make there players guard, especially their bigs. Draw fouls on them and get us in the bonus early.
I think we can beat them if we continue to play the way we have played the last 4 games. Just need more grit than we did against UIPUI. Hoping to see Kipper, can't expect much since minutes will be limited and he will likely be very rusty.
Deleted member 29907
D
Guest
Got to watch the quick break. The game I saw had Mika running the length and dunking fast breaks. MM or MT won't be able to keep up with that. We'll need either LB or MF to run and get in his way. We may not hit the O boards as hard as we've been able to.
Jkat00
- Champaign, IL
United Center has the hardest set rims in the NBA. Nobody likes shooting there. Horrible back drop too.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal with Do Not Contact Tag
It's my now-yearly dead horse to kick, but it physically wounds me to see what has become of the UC game.
for years players have said the visuals there are tough to get used to.
That Oregon team had looked pretty mediocre going into that game,on into the first half. it was a defining point for both teams' seasons. Illinois faltered in similar ways, in multiple games against teams they easily could have beaten, while Oregon took a mixed bag and developed and grew into a cohesive unit.
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
If it gets bums in seats and rejuvenates the atmosphere, I'm all for it. The whole UIC thing has been the real PR nightmare.
It didn't bother Robo Kreps.
NW has such a crappy alummi base that they can't even fill their 9000 seat arena. They'll add nothing to this UC game. The UC game used to be a huge advantage for us. We played marquee opponents, beat them, and created positive buzz for our program.
Now, we have to play UIC, share it with a school that has 0 tournament appearances, and ceded "the" college basketball event to the Champions Classic (at least last year).
I flew in from Dallas to the Oregon game 2 years, and was one of the biggest letdowns. The game was a bummer of course, but I also got yelled at by the ushers for "scaring the children" with my yelling.
Yup. Especially in comparison to the Braggin' Rights, which is a nuthouse even when both teams stink.
Illinois non-conference scheduling is a tricky thing. I'm curious as to how you would aim to solve the problem, other than being better at basketball of course.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I know, it really does suck. I get it for football, at least theoretically we would either need A) a good team facing off against a marquee opponent (this could work later in Lovie's tenure) or B) a team with *enough* local interest of their own (Northwestern or Notre Dame) but ALSO someone we are fine with conceding that they are also a "local" team (i.e., Iowa, MSU, Wisconsin need not apply, as we have nothing to gain from that) in order to make it a successful event.
However, with basketball we were always a stand-alone - a team popular enough in Chicago that we could host whomever-we-damn-well-pleased at the United Center, it would be a University of Illinois home game (for our benefit and nobody else's) and it would be a celebration of our fans that have helped us dominate (to the extent anyone can) the college basketball market in Chicago ... now we are pretty much asking NU for help. It stings.
WestIllini
- University of Iowa
uhh you are aware that we are playing BYU right?
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Admittedly not sure where it stands now, but the previous deal was that we had to play UIC once every 3 or 4 years. Seems like that was a weird scheduling thing to try to throw our sister school a bone.
At the end of the day, the UC game would still be a big deal if we didn't suck. Chicago is an enormous bandwagon town. Win and fans will flock. Lose and no one cares. The only way we get this game back on the map is to start winning more games.
Fortunately that contract has been completed.
Agree. It sucks that we have to share with Northwestern, but when you draw maybe 2000 people through the door last year for UIC (even though that UIC game is complete garbage and only gets worse every time we have to play it), I assume we were given no choice if we wanted to play at the UC.
Get back to being a good program, and maybe we can have it back to ourselves (I say "maybe" because this pairing might be hard to undo if it somehow draws well this Saturday).
Aside from the obvious solution of "Illinois needs to be better at basketball", I think a better selection of opponents would help. Not necessarily a huge program, but there are local or more-local-ish teams that would draw. Marquette, Butler, Xavier, Creighton, something like that. Of course, Xavier or Creighton would beat our brains in today, but those are perfect if we were at least a decent to good team. Their fans would travel, it's a compelling opponent, and hopefully a competitive game.
IMO, these neutral site games are a good way to tell where the fanbase is currently at with the program. State Farm Center attendance is always going to be a lagging indicator, because those numbers are strongly buoyed by season ticket sales. Fans are attached to their season tickets. And, as soon as you don't buy season tix for a year, you lose all seniority points - not like they're worth anything now, but fans renew in the hope of having them worth something someday. It's tough to give those up (and that's why I still have them!).
The neutral site games aren't tied to that, so it's just a matter of how attractive the team is at that moment in time. 10-15 years ago, we'd fill a gym in Hawaii with orange for some game in December. Now, we can't draw flies in Chicago, let alone New York or Miami. We don't draw casual fans, and even season ticket holders don't want to spend even more than they already have to get extra games.
These games are a snapshot of the fanbase, which is why I'm convinced that Groce has lost the fanbase and likely isn't getting it back. Sure, we're still selling 13,000+ on occasion at SFC, but no one is interested in the "extra" games that are optional at that point in time.
79illinois
- Winnetka, IL
On this Saturday's game, I will be there with my son and 2 Illini friends. But the face value of the ticket prices area are a real overreach -- $150 each for decent seats. That is way over the top for a college basketball game, doubleheader or not, Chicago market or not. I predict ticket sales will be disappointing, especially on a Saturday night in the middle of the holidays. The promoters may regret the aggressive ticket prices here. I love the Illini but they are not much a draw for hoops in recent years. Sad but true.
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