Pregame: Illinois vs Charlotte, Saturday, October 2nd, 11:00am CT, BTN

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#157      
Denver, CO
My guess is we win by about 3-4 points. There will be a scare at the end where we will either have to score to win or prevent a score to win. I hope it’s the latter.

27-24 Illinois.
 
#166      
EasyR is exactly right. While on average, a certain course of action may be superior, it's the coach's responsibility to make the best decision based on his own team's strengths and weaknesses, and how those match up with the opposing team. In other words, no matchup is "average." There are many variables, and going with the decision that an average calculation supports isn't always the best option.

That said, like all fans, I support going for it on 4th down and replacing whichever QB is currently playing.
For the record, I take no issue with anyone saying they would've preferred BB had gone for it. There was also reasonable basis for taking that risk. What I have taken issue with in this forum are those castigating BB for his decision and claiming he went against the "odds."
 
#167      
This is true, you have to take the data, and apply it to your real world situation, with all necessary adjustments. I don't think anyone is actually arguing otherwise. But if you really don't think your offense is capable of moving the ball one or two yards a play against an opposing defense, you may as well just go ahead and punt on 1st down and hope your defense scores you some points I guess. FWIW our average yards per play against Purdue was 4.
Juiceman -- I've never said it wasn't reasonable to criticize BB for deciding to punt. (Nor have I stated what I would have preferred BB had done. ;0! ) I have made the case that his decision was -- reasonable.

Moreover, I have made the case that the decision making in football (like war) is both art and science (so to speak). One cannot simply "play the odds" (relying on statistical soothsayers), but must also take into account the situation, how the teams have played up to date, on whose side Ole' Mighty Mo (momentum) resides at that point in time, fatigue and health of your players, and other factors to wit the coaches alone may be privvy -- all contributing to both the art and science of their decision.

I engaged in this fun dialogue to take issue with your original assertion: "You have to play the odds, and the odds are clear that you have a better chance winning the game if you go for it." Those were your exact words. As I have tried to establish, weighing the odds (both tactically and strategically) is part of the assessment. But judgment involves more than mere odds. AND even the CORRECT decision is reliant on the Jimmies and Joes to execute the X's and O's! (Funny how players can make any decision great or lousy.)

Noting the Illini were averaging 4 yds per play is a reasonable data point. One would like to see that statistical analysis applied to 3rd downs, short yardage situations, and the possible handful of plays where it was likely McCray would be handed the ball. Of course, even if one compiles that data after-the-fact, it begs the question whether that information was specifically assessed in the 30-60 seconds BB had to make the decision (he took a TO, right?).

Likewise, another guy up above noted that Purdue's replacement QB had been much more effective moving the ball -- save for two consecutive turnovers -- and that BB should have assessed that the new QB would move Purdue right down the field as he did. Fair point -- peace. But, again, it is with the benefit of hindsight that this assessment was made. Now, if the commenter honestly threw his hands up and yelled at the TV screen at the time, because he was honestly concerned about the new QB, well then kudos to him -- his reasonable concern was well-founded.

But it still doesn't make BB's decision unreasonable under the circumstances. To say otherwise is, in effect, saying that BB cannot put faith in his defense to keep an opponent that has struggled to score from driving 95 yards for a touchdown with only 3 minutes to play. Better to roll the dice on a single play than to give yourself time and distance to preserve the victory (even if the opponent gets up to midfield in two plays--they were still 50 yards away.) I'm not so sure the odds were as skewed as you claim. Nevertheless, I find the appeal in your desire that he "go for it" rather than punt--regardless the odds. But then, I'm something of a gambler -- especially when my "skin" is not in the game. :)

Cheers! Go Illini!
 
#168      
Any watch parties in Lake County tomorrow? I am not going to be able to make it to the game, but would enjoy watching with other Illini fans. I live in Vernon Hills.
 
#170      
I hate to say it, but I'd like to see an incredibly short playbook. BP has shown he can't execute the full playbook, any throw further than 10 yards is an area weapon, so stick to throws that leave his hand in two seconds, no option. If that means Barker, Ford, Barker, Ford, RB up the middle, do it.

BP should throw more than ten yards again until he has proven he can hit the short stuff, and not eat sacks. He'll lose the game if he's given more to do than that, so don't bother asking. Maybe completing a bunch of short passes will help him get the timing down and gain some confidence.
 
#172      
Illini game not on BTN tomorrow.
Yes it is, enter your zip code and provider in the link below to find the channel:
 
#173      
I hate to say it, but I'd like to see an incredibly short playbook. BP has shown he can't execute the full playbook, any throw further than 10 yards is an area weapon, so stick to throws that leave his hand in two seconds, no option. If that means Barker, Ford, Barker, Ford, RB up the middle, do it.

BP should throw more than ten yards again until he has proven he can hit the short stuff, and not eat sacks. He'll lose the game if he's given more to do than that, so don't bother asking. Maybe completing a bunch of short passes will help him get the timing down and gain some confidence.
He should be working on those weaknesses during practice. Once the game rolls around we need to throw everything at defenses or we would become even more predictable and easier to stop.
 
#174      
Paducah, Ky

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Chris Reynolds has been on a Cinderella ride at Charlotte, but Illinois doesn’t want to be next chapter of his movie-like ascension.
The 49ers’ starting quarterback is a former walk-on who has not only climbed to the top of the depth chart but the record book, too. Last week, Reynolds became Charlotte’s all-time leader in touchdown passes (45). Earlier this season he became the nine-year program’s all-time leader in passing yards and is 34 shy of reaching 6,000.
Reynolds has been described as the “heart and soul” of the 49ers’ program by coach Will Healy, per The Charlotte Observer’s Hunter Bailey. The fifth-year senior led Charlotte to a 31-28 win over Duke in its season opener for the team’s first ever victory against a Power Five opponent.

The Illini lost 13-9 at Purdue last week as quarterback Brandon Peters struggled for the second straight game. The sixth-year senior was 14-of-26 passing for 100 yards, but Bielema said the team’s offensive woes are not solely Peters’ fault.
“The two games that he’s started now coming back for us (after a left shoulder injury), obviously to not be able to score in the first quarter is frustrating, and I think everyone points to the quarterback,” Bielema said. “... But everybody has to be better. For the quarterback to throw better, we gotta protect him better, we gotta be able to catch it better, we gotta be able to call it better. ... It’s a unified approach, and as soon as that happens, then you’ll probably see the better results for all of us.”

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I hope BB is right , but I have seen enough BP and poor decision making by him on the field to make me to hope BB has a quick hook and gives AS another chance..........................The last 2 weeks has been torture to watch BP play scared and us lose both games.....JMHO
 
#175      
Yes it is, enter your zip code and provider in the link below to find the channel:
YouTube TV has been showing all week that it will be on the overflow channel
 
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