Pregame: Illinois vs Duke, Saturday, September 12th, 2:30pm CT, FS1

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#151      
The play that Hank ran last year against Duke I could see Brayden running the same play.
 
#152      
I'm just going to take this as validation for all of us.

What an arbitrary set of lines...

giving up 1.5 pts per drive is great, don't get me wrong, but.... why not set it at 2? I mean, it's not even 1.5, it's like less than 1.5, but not specified. Even the Offensive points per drive is weird. What is it set at? 2.93?

Good graph. Terrible quantifiers.
 
#153      
I'm not too optimistic about the Duke game.
They have a good defense which will negate the effectiveness of our offense, and they have a very good running back and our run defense is poor.
Put both of those together and it doesn't line up well for the illini.
 
#154      
Any idea when Platt will be back? It would be great to have him back (at least for a couple of series) for the SIU game in preparation for OSU.
I can just about guarantee they are NOT going to put him in the SIU game .
 
#155      
I have a good feeling about the game. We have an offense led by a QB who will negate the effectiveness of their defense. Our defense will improve from the first game and slow their offense. We may dare their QB to throw against us. We will control the flow of the game and win.
 
#156      
I'm not too optimistic about the Duke game.
They have a good defense which will negate the effectiveness of our offense, and they have a very good running back and our run defense is poor.
Put both of those together and it doesn't line up well for the illini.
I secvond your response and concerns. I think this will be a very tough game.
 
#158      
I'm not too optimistic about the Duke game.
They have a good defense which will negate the effectiveness of our offense, and they have a very good running back and our run defense is poor.
Put both of those together and it doesn't line up well for the illini.

If we lose to Duke, it will be a long season....
 
#159      
If this chart is right,(I used AI for assistance), its going to be long season on the defensive side and the first game was tell of bad things to come this season...We're going to have to score a lot of points to win games..

Defensive Talent by Team (Ranked Players Only)

Team1★2★3★4★5★Total Ranked
Illinois000202
Indiana0032611
Ohio State008100–118–19
Michigan0068115
Penn State0057113
Oregon0048315
USC0046111
UCLA004307
Washington005308
Wisconsin004307
Iowa003104
Minnesota003104
Nebraska004307
Northwestern002103
Purdue003104
Maryland004307
Rutgers003104
Michigan State004206
Excellent graph and a clear integrator of how bad our transfer portal this past off season was.
 
#161      
Duke's punter is a line drive guy - Resetich could have a very good day.
 
#162      
After our first game a lot of things on both sides of the ball to improve on, especially the defense. If we play like that again we'll catch a loss. Hope Bret can get them motivated to play more like what a solid big10 team should be.
 
#164      
Gies Memorial Stadium Sellout Watch update for the Duke game:

First, a review of my UAB prediction: I guessed 52,000 and actual announced crowd was 52,673. There of course weren't that many people in the stadium, but it was still a good turnout for late, hot Thursday night. Compare it to our last Thursday night season opener: Eastern Illinois (2024). That night's announced crowd was 43,849 (also the last time we failed to break 50,000). This nearly 9,000 ticket increase is due to a higher season ticket base and much higher student ticket sales. The DIA says there were 12,000 students at the game Thursday. Both of these create a higher floor that all but guarantees games on non-optimal dates/times will still have a respectable attendance total.

For Duke, one of the DIA emails last week said there were "less than 2,500 tickets remaining." I put that estimate at less than 1,500 tickets remaining. We're close enough that I could see them making a push this week to make this game a sellout.


View attachment 51516
Do they ever release turnstile attendance?
 
#168      
Going to have to stop Shepherd no doubt.
You probably can't stop him, esp. with our defense. Limiting him is probably the best you can do. And we'll need to see a much improved defense vs. Duke.
 
#169      
Excellent graph and a clear integrator of how bad our transfer portal this past off season was.
I don’t understand this. Is this supposed to be for the transfer portal only? Meaning that we only got two players in the portal? Otherwise, wouldn’t people be at least a one star?
 
#171      
Like us in this one if we get get ahead early and tackle much better. Force them to throw in obvious situations and watch for screens. Their defense is a lot better than UAB so I don't like missing Henderson but especially Platt. Felt we were missing that slot playmaker and speedster vs UAB.
 
#172      
I don’t understand this. Is this supposed to be for the transfer portal only? Meaning that we only got two players in the portal? Otherwise, wouldn’t people be at least a one star?

After the graph was generated, I saw this issue also...After further reviewing the matter, its my understanding that All major recruiting outlets — 247Sports, Rivals, On3, ESPN — now operate on a 2‑to‑5‑star system. Key points:

  • One‑star doesn’t exist. Prospects who would have been 1★ in the old system are now simply unrated.
  • Two‑star still exists, but it’s rare and generally represents a developmental FBS/FCS‑level prospect.
  • The practical rating tiers today are:
    • 5★ – elite, national‑level prospects
    • 4★ – high‑end Power Five starters
    • 3★ – solid Division I players
    • 2★ – developmental prospects
    • Unrated – players not evaluated or not in the database

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Illinois 4 star recruits on defense are Nick Hakins (DB) and Jacob Eberhart (DB)...Nobody on the defensive line...Makes me think our poor tackling on the line is just due to poor recruits...Regardless, the Duke game should tell us whether the first game was a fluke or representative of how the season will play out...I leaning toward the latter..

On another note, How did Indiana all of a sudden become such a recruiting juggernaut? I guess a NC will do that :)
 
#173      
UAB transfer portal pick ups impressed me. That 4th string running back from Georgia bulldogs was a beast. They had good portal players all up amd down their roster. I'm thinking they go 8-4 or 9-3, looking at their schedule. Good win, we found a gem at Qb1!
They were better than most people expected
 
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