Pregame: Illinois vs Florida Atlantic, Saturday, September 23rd, 2:30pm CT, BTN

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#101      

mhuml32

mhuml32
Cincinnati, OH
mhuml32
1970 John said:
I don’t know about the team but I think the fans are out for blood. I just hope we can keep this momentum rolling.
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I'm commenting because I made the previous comment similar to this: I don't think the fanbase is frothing yet. Beating Toledo but losing to Kansas and Penn State was likely the most plausible outcome to the start of the season. The theme seems more like fear, that we could be on the precipice of the yet another collapse after a good season that repeats semi-recent Illinois football history. People will be out for blood if Illinois loses or even squeaks by (high likelihood that Lunney would be public enemy #1, whether that's fair or not).

The narrative will be completely different if Illinois wins something like 38-10. Then you can make an (easy) argument that Illinois had a really challenging first three games, new DC, a million new players in the secondary, string of really good opponent QBs to start the season, but now things are looking up going into Purdue. Offense needs to find a way to move the once the script is over. Also, this might be a hot take, but don't be afraid to run up the score.
 
#102      

ptgrd23

ptgrd23
ptgrd23
Penn State was so depressing. With less turnovers it could have been close game or even win.

I wanted to throw something at TV when McCray fumbled on our first possesion after being solo tackled.

I need a 50 point blowout to put me back into optimistic mood about Illini football season.
 
#103      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
mhuml32 said:
I'm commenting because I made the previous comment similar to this: I don't think the fanbase is frothing yet. Beating Toledo but losing to Kansas and Penn State was likely the most plausible outcome to the start of the season. The theme seems more like fear, that we could be on the precipice of the yet another collapse after a good season that repeats semi-recent Illinois football history. People will be out for blood if Illinois loses or even squeaks by (high likelihood that Lunney would be public enemy #1, whether that's fair or not).

The narrative will be completely different if Illinois wins something like 38-10. Then you can make an (easy) argument that Illinois had a really challenging first three games, new DC, a million new players in the secondary, string of really good opponent QBs to start the season, but now things are looking up going into Purdue. Offense needs to find a way to move the once the script is over. Also, this might be a hot take, but don't be afraid to run up the score.
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I agree with all of this. I think our "latent fan base" (as previously coined in another thread) - i.e., the types who get us over 55k for a game like MSU last season - is definitely still sitting this season out until there is some excitement. However, I think we have grown the "active fan base" significantly last season, as evidence by 10,000 more season ticketholders ... and I definitely agree that these folks (which would include everyone who cares enough to post on a forum like this) have not started to get too worked up about the 1-2 start yet. Anything but a win vs. FAU that was never truly in doubt in the second half will get people somewhat alarmed, and a comfortable win next week likely doesn't move the needle good or bad as far as fan enthusiasm goes, IMO. It will be the Purdue game that either pumps our fan base up or causes people to start to jump ship.

Assuming earlier estimates were correct and we get like 46,000 to 48,000 for FAU and we are able to win comfortably, I would see our upcoming attendance like this, FWIW:

vs. Nebraska (Friday)
- 43k if we get smoked by Purdue
- 45k if we lose a close one to Purdue
- 49k if we win in West Lafayette (still a great crowd for a Friday night)

vs. Wisconsin
- 45k if we lose our next three
- 47k if we can beat one of Purdue, Nebraska or Maryland
- 50k if we can win two of the previous three (not sure it matters who we beat)
- 56k+ if we are on a 4-game winning streak (remember it's Homecoming)

I agree with you that our fans are not so much "out for blood" as we are worried in the sense that we have seen similar opportunities to advance the program to "consistent" status go haywire, such as 2002 or 2008. We have a ton of winnable and losable games in front of us, and I think our fans' collective psyche is bracing for all possibilities, lol.
 
#104      

BRucks

BRucks
BRucks
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I agree with you that our fans are not so much "out for blood" as we are worried in the sense that we have seen similar opportunities to advance the program to "consistent" status go haywire, such as 2002 or 2008. We have a ton of winnable and losable games in front of us, and I think our fans' collective psyche is bracing for all possibilities, lol.
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We haven't had consecutive winning seasons since 2010-11.
 
#106      

FloridaMan

F
FloridaMan
mhuml32 said:
I'm commenting because I made the previous comment similar to this: I don't think the fanbase is frothing yet. Beating Toledo but losing to Kansas and Penn State was likely the most plausible outcome to the start of the season. The theme seems more like fear, that we could be on the precipice of the yet another collapse after a good season that repeats semi-recent Illinois football history. People will be out for blood if Illinois loses or even squeaks by (high likelihood that Lunney would be public enemy #1, whether that's fair or not).

The narrative will be completely different if Illinois wins something like 38-10. Then you can make an (easy) argument that Illinois had a really challenging first three games, new DC, a million new players in the secondary, string of really good opponent QBs to start the season, but now things are looking up going into Purdue. Offense needs to find a way to move the once the script is over. Also, this might be a hot take, but don't be afraid to run up the score.
Click to expand...
Was at the Penn St game. The missed field goal, then the fumble by McCray set the tone for the entire game. You have to make a 47 yarder at home to beat a good team. And the fumble and subsequent interception or two, along with poor offensive line play, put us in a position where I guess Lunney felt we needed to throw the ball to have a chance....leading to more interceptions. It is unfair to put the team's fortunes on Luke; he clearly has a high ceiling and could be a fantastic player for us for many years, but he's only played 3 games at this level.

For us to get to where we want to be by the end of this season, both lines and linebackers have to start playing a lot better. The D line showed some life last week, but there is still room for improvement. The linebackers have been non-existent; think it's going to be a problem position for the foreseeable future. The offensive line, I thought, was going to be a group we could lean on this year as our QB and receivers matured. Would be nice if they could get it together as a group and give Lunney and the RB's confidence to get the ground game going. I, for one, would like to see more of Feagin and less McCray, as I'm afraid the injuries have made Josh too tentative. Hopefully, this game is a chance for both the line and RB's to take a step in a positive direction.
 
#107      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
BRucks said:
We haven't had consecutive winning seasons since 2010-11.
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Based on the way 2011 went (losing 6 in a row after starting 6-0), I don't consider 2011 a winning season, even though we won the bowl game with an interim coach. We haven't had consecutive winning regular seasons since 1988-1992. If only we can get back to the consistency of the Mackovic years.
 
#109      

aaeismacgychel

A
aaeismacgychel
ptgrd23 said:
Penn State was so depressing. With less turnovers it could have been close game or even win.

I wanted to throw something at TV when McCray fumbled on our first possesion after being solo tackled.

I need a 50 point blowout to put me back into optimistic mood about Illini football season.
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One thing to note is that while their offense has been anemic, FAU's defense so far this season hasn't been bad. Hanging 50pts on them will almost certainly not be on the table. A 30pt win should be deemed an extremely strong showing. Any win over 20pts will still be quite good.

Really, so long as we win this one, which we definitely should, it won't change fan opinion much at all. Purdue will decide whether fans are onboard or flail their arms while jumpingoff the ship.

Lose to FAU though, which absolutely should not happen and I think we can all agree that from a fan perspective, season will be decided as over and the pitchforks will be out. Don't think there's any way to come back from that. And honestly, I think these next 3 games are pretty much must wins to keep the average illini fan interested
 
#113      

IlliniInBuckeyeState

I
IlliniInBuckeyeState
1970 John said:
I just saw that 52,000 tickets have been sold for the FAU game. I don’t know whether that includes giveaways, or how many were sold before the PSU game and therefore not affected by the results of that game—for better or worse.
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That has to include the tickets given away. I doubt all those tickets given to educators will be used, but it's all relevant in feeding into a projection for what announced attendance will be.

Below is the final Sellout Watch ticket tracker for FAU. Estimated tickets sold is sitting at 45,928.

1695441007611.png




This week's ticket tracking was tough. With the giveaways - and large chucks of tickets being given away to schools, at that - it was tough to tell if a few consecutive rows of unavailable seats meant that it had been given away or if they were the usual "unsold but unavailable for sale until more seats in the section are sold" seats. So, we know attendance will be at least 45,928, but how much more? For Toledo, it was about 2,600 more than what the ticket tracker's conservative estimate said. For Penn State, it was about 1,700 more. The 52,000 number cited above is throwing me for a loop because that is a huge jump from 46,000. Even if I got rid of all my conservative assumptions and went 100% aggressive, the tracker only projects about 51,000. I'm inclined to stick to my formula and go with the tracker number + a reasonable increase to offset my conservative assumption, walk up ticket sales tomorrow (cheap seats available this week!), etc. My official guess for attendance this week: 47,800
 
#114      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
Fighter of the Nightman said:
If that is true, that would be astounding. I don't care if there were a ton of giveaways, that would be unprecedent in recent history for Illini football and an absolutely wonderful sign ... though I admit I would find it hard to believe if we could only get 49k for #7 Penn State! However, just to put it in perspective what a radical attendance change that would be, these are our ten largest crowds in the previous ten seasons (counting this year):

2016: 60,670 vs. North Carolina
2022: 56,092 vs. Michigan State (Illini 7-1 and ranked #16 at the time)
--- 2023: 52,000+ vs. Florida Atlantic ---
2015: 51,515 vs. #3 Ohio State
2014: 50,373 vs. Iowa
2023: 49,099 vs. #7 Penn State
2023: 48,898 vs. Toledo
2016: 48,644 vs. Murray State (Lovie's first game)
2022: 45,683 vs. Minnesota (Illini 5-1 and ranked #24 at the time)
2022: 45,574 vs. Purdue (whole lotta no-shows, it was COLD and I was there!)
2015: 45,438 vs. Wisconsin

Again, I am quite skeptical ... but even drawing 45k would give Bielema's last two seasons over half of the top 10. That's some very nice movement in fan enthusiasm.
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I know I'm Debbie Downer on this, but check out Seat Geek. There are a TON of seats listed at $7 and under that aren't selling. There may have been a lot of tickets sold/given away, but there's gonna be some empty-ish sections.
 
#115      

1970 John

1970 John
1970 John
IlliniInBuckeyeState said:
That has to include the tickets given away. I doubt all those tickets given to educators will be used, but it's all relevant in feeding into a projection for what announced attendance will be.

Below is the final Sellout Watch ticket tracker for FAU. Estimated tickets sold is sitting at 45,928.

View attachment 28172



This week's ticket tracking was tough. With the giveaways - and large chucks of tickets being given away to schools, at that - it was tough to tell if a few consecutive rows of unavailable seats meant that it had been given away or if they were the usual "unsold but unavailable for sale until more seats in the section are sold" seats. So, we know attendance will be at least 45,928, but how much more? For Toledo, it was about 2,600 more than what the ticket tracker's conservative estimate said. For Penn State, it was about 1,700 more. The 52,000 number cited above is throwing me for a loop because that is a huge jump from 46,000. Even if I got rid of all my conservative assumptions and went 100% aggressive, the tracker only projects about 51,000. I'm inclined to stick to my formula and go with the tracker number + a reasonable increase to offset my conservative assumption, walk up ticket sales tomorrow (cheap seats available this week!), etc. My official guess for attendance this week: 47,800
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I went back and found the email from the Marching Illini that said 52,000 tickets were sold. Of course, the MI person may not know the intricacies of tickets and such so there’s that.

I also got an email from Fighting Illini Athletics that you can’t use parking spaces for tailgating in lots 32. 34, 35, 36, 39 because people will actually be wanting to park their cars in parking spaces they laid for.

This appears to be, if not uncharted territory, somewhere we’ve not been in a while.
 
#116      

Ransom Stoddard

Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
Bloomington, IL
Ransom Stoddard
I got this today--I'm sure it will rub some tailgaters the wrong way, but I've seen some tailgates taking up space where 4 or 6 cars could park. I usually arrive early enough that it isn't an issue, but I talked to a guy last week that was lot 32 that couldn't find a spot 20 minutes before kick.

1695442016168.png
 
#117      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Ransom Stoddard said:
I know I'm Debbie Downer on this, but check out Seat Geek. There are a TON of seats listed at $7 and under that aren't selling. There may have been a lot of tickets sold/given away, but there's gonna be some empty-ish sections.
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That’s fair, but didn’t somebody say that our sellout (60,670) vs. UNC in 2016 only scanned 47,000 actual tickets at the gates? If that’s the case, looking at crowd photos of that game, you actually can’t really notice up to 13,000 no-shows.
 
#122      

1970 John

1970 John
1970 John
Ransom Stoddard said:
I got this today--I'm sure it will rub some tailgaters the wrong way, but I've seen some tailgates taking up space where 4 or 6 cars could park. I usually arrive early enough that it isn't an issue, but I talked to a guy last week that was lot 32 that couldn't find a spot 20 minutes before kick.

View attachment 28173
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I got that too. They’re going to need someone to go around to people who set up “illegal tailgates” and make them move their stuff. And putting it in front or behind their cars really isn’t a solution because they’ll block traffic or there just won’t v be room.

Sorry, tailgaters, but this is what happens when your team is successful.
 
#123      

IlliniInBuckeyeState

I
IlliniInBuckeyeState
1970 John said:
I went back and found the email from the Marching Illini that said 52,000 tickets were sold. Of course, the MI person may not know the intricacies of tickets and such so there’s that.

I also got an email from Fighting Illini Athletics that you can’t use parking spaces for tailgating in lots 32. 34, 35, 36, 39 because people will actually be wanting to park their cars in parking spaces they laid for.

This appears to be, if not uncharted territory, somewhere we’ve not been in a while.
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Yeah, I assume tickets given away and sold are being lumped together. When they announce attendance, it’s going to be one number of tickets sold even if 5,000+ of those were “sold” for $0. What I’m trying to predict is the announced attendance so I need to factor in tickets given away into the data on ticket sales/availability I get from the ticket website. I still feel like what I’ve seen on the ticket website doesn’t support 52,000, but it’s also entirely possible that the large swaths of tickets that never appeared for sale on the website were just given away to schools. In previous weeks the teacher assumes those rows of tickets are unsold. Perhaps this week that assumption is going to be off base. We shall see.
 
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