Home court advantage is most correlated with home foul advantage (and non-steal turnover %, which is correlated with fouls). Not eFG%, FT%, RB%, steals, etc. And the advantage has dwindled considerably in the last 20 years. Plus, KenPom took an initial look (link) at the early part of the COVID season and found it to be a good amount less than the previous 5 years (2.25 vs 3.6pts). His theory already was that the refs are biased to the home team, and this was further evidence of that being the main source (0.8 instead of 2.1 foul advantage).
Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, Thursday, March 26th, 9:05pm CT, TBS
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I remember Brad mentioning both teams were sleeping in hotels in a recent interview
They’ve played one game there I think this year. Someone correct me if I’m wrong. So how much familiarity does that gain them for shooting?
they played there Dec 6 against Florida State. Only 7,121 in attendance. The won 82-67.
There is a video of them going to the team hotel today, so they have even been there a while.
If you paid a healthy 3 digits for the tickets plus hotels/flights, why would you not watch a top 10 showdown of your next opponent? I’d imagine the fans of the winning team would stay for at least the first half!
Seeing the stats about how we have lost all the close games thrown around a lot (not just here) and just need to reiterate again that we have had multiple games within a possession with 2 min remaining where we have taken control and pushed the lead to multiple possessions making it no longer a close game by answering. Coming up clutch is not imo the big concern with this team. Yes they have lost all their OT games so I’d be remiss if I didn’t say I’d be nervous if this goes to OT but this team struggling in close games is not an accurate narrative imo.
May be wrong but it seemed to me like it’s a requirement likely because it could have a disproportionate impact otherwise.
Ironic you don’t want any of the go-to B10 refs (Kimble and Reed are ones excluded from your list). Familiarity breeds contempt!
I would take Szelc for this game. Gets along with Brad from what I can tell, not afraid to make calls or stick it to home crowd. Dorsey also was fine in Greenville, though because we had him I doubt he’s in Houston.
The line has edged back slightly. Most of the books had Houston -3.5 with payouts implying that might be a tad in our favor, but several have switched back to -2.5 with payouts implying that's a tad in Houston's favor. So they've probably been on the fence between 2.5 and 3.5 with tiny movements either way.
Moneyline implied odds are still around 40-42%
Moneyline implied odds are still around 40-42%
SuperMetroid
- Evanston
Watching the end of Arizona ‘05 on BTN. It’s been far too long. Let’s get this done
Dorsey can be good. He was awful in our game in Greenville though.
Hoping no sickness & everyone is healthy. Going to need to be full strength.
Just no Baldy or High Knees.
We kinda handled Iowa State's with arguably a worse ball-handling team. We did that by not panicking. I think we will do it again.
I definitely don’t need Midnight Oil songs running through my brain all night tomorrow.
It has been known for years, but not acknowledged, that the principal advantage of home court is the pressure fans put on referees. Refs cave. That's worth several points per game.
I don’t imagine the losing fans stay. If they do they won’t have much reason to root for Illinois.
Fans for life
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Of those 40, refs who will more likely be excluded from the matchup as they have already reffed either us or Houston in the 1st 2 rounds:
Dorsey
Covington
Greenstein
Nixon
Ayers
Harness
Wells
Desai
So, 32 left and we desperately need to avoid High Knees because he keeps foul calls even between teams, Courtney Green becausehe does the same, Sirmons because he will just let the teams play and not call fouls, and DJ because he's terrible. And all 4 thus far have worked on different crews. Yeahhhhhh... That's a gulp...
Word of warning: Sirmons is thought of extremely extremely highly by the NCAA. And if we're considered possibly the marquee game of this round, I have a very sinking suspicion... And if we get him, man... We're sort of screwed, because he'll let Houston play as aggressive as they want. Sort of be the opposite of '01 EE Arizona where muggings are allowed.
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