I wouldn't put too much into Walker's assessment, he opened by saying is biased and from Houston. then said Illinois loves to run and gun down the court. I don't think he's actually ever watched Illinois play. then proceeded to just talk up Houston. very real little analysis
We have just not looked like the same team since Keaton’s shoulder injury and the heartbreaking loss at the end of the UCLA game. Michigan punked us. Barely scraped by a win against Maryland where we got torched by their freshman guard. Lost again to Wisky while we let not one but TWO players score 30.
Two wins over quad 2/3 teams isn’t going to magically make us a different team from the one that has lost in the last month or so to 5 different elite guards (Fears, Boyd, Blackwell, Dent). We’re about to run into an even better guard than all of them in Flemings plus two returning starting guards from a Natty Runner-Up team.
Our defensive liabilities vs. elite/athletic guards plus our inability to score vs. physical defenses (Michigan and likely Houston) suggests tomorrow’s game is the toughest matchup of the year outside Michigan.
Our offense is persistently lauded as efficient, largely due to multiple three point threats in a 5 out offense. But post-USC to pre-NCAAs we’ve shot 30% from 3. Tomi’s 3 ball is a huge part of our offense to truly stress opponent defenses. If teams can sag off him, the paint remains hyper-congested for our guards and Andrej. This also leads to less spot-up shots for Ben/Jake.
I understand we play a reactive offense based on what matchup we can hunt and what the defense gives us. But Tomi HAS to pick and pop for a 3 in the first 5 minutes of the game in order to prevent their front-court from building a wall at the rim. Fortunately, Houston plays at a slower tempo than a Michigan. I therefore have hope we’ll bait them into 3pt jump shots to keep pace with our offense.
If we get turned over leading to athletic dunks which brings the crowd into the game, we’ll quickly be staring at a double digit deficit in the first half. Ball security needs to be the #1 priority tomorrow.
We need to stop with ISO ball for Keaton, Mirk, and Andrej. Move the ball. Tire out their defense. Spread the court. Find the swing passes (looking at you, Mirk). And let’s please get Ben and Jake deep into the corners. On high ball screens, we need Keaton to at least fake penetration to hold their big for a second to create some daylight for Tomi to shoot.
Love that we’ve made the Sweet 16. But we had a favorable draw vs. two bid stealers. Now the difficulty has jumped up to an away game at Breslin. Are we ready? Guess we’ll find out.
I bleed orange. But if I were a betting man, it’s hard not to take the under on the -2.5 Houston line playing at the Toyota center against an athletic AND physical team. This potential win would be our biggest tourney win since Arizona 2005. Iowa State in 2024 and Louisville in 2005 would be below. That’s how big it would be to beat a Houston team of THIS era in Houston nonetheless.
Hope Kylan has helped the freshmen lock in mentally for brutal trench warfare on and off the ball! Tomi and Z need to remember they’re 7 feet tall. And Andrej needs to limit his dribbling. Jake and Ben need to remove any/all hesitation for in-rhythm shots. It’s going to take all 8 guys in our rotation playing flawless basketball to win this. And, please make free throws. None of our guys have looked confident knocking both down each trip to the charity stripe.
Hope some “get right” wins last weekend, the excitement of making the Sweet 16, and a 5-day prep cycle has helped these guys reach their peak physical and mental states. I hope the B1G fans can at least buffer some of the home court advantage for the coogs. Let’s go out there and win the opening minutes of play ahead of the Under 16 timeout. You know their first play will be a middy for Kingston - rebound with TWO hands, please! Let’s find that open 3 and knock that sumbeach down!
I-L-L!
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