Captain Bubbles
- Fairfield, IL
Doesn't matter if it's D3, NAIA, D2, etc. You're gonna see tall timber, regardless of division.
Pregame: Illinois vs Illinois Wesleyan (Exhibition), Friday, November 2nd, 7:00pm CT, BTN Plus
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Pretty sure you are correct. I believe they lost to Lemoyne-Owen (Sp?).
You certainly lost me when you said we had little chance of beating SDSU.
SDSU is ranked 65 by kenpom. We are 85. "Little" chance is hyperbole, but "advanced" metrics says we're underdogs. ISU is 25th, Xavier 55th, Arizona suprisingly 76th(way to go breaking the pattern), and for kicks the fighting Ewings are 57th (again surprisingly, at least to me).
Kenpom really isn't worth a ton in preseason, but I think trying to look at us from an outsiders POV, the 80s are where we should be. I'm hoping we win 2 out of 4 of those matchups, but if some of the better teams lose initially, it could get messy fast.
Deleted member 746094
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I was joking(partly) about the legitimacy of their listed heights...
If you do enough 400+ lb squats, you're gonna get shorter eventually, aren't you?
The main difference between football and basketball last year is that the basketball team actually WAS competitive in 90% of their games. So I am looking for more than just competitiveness this year.
This non-con slate is epic though. Excited to see how it molds the team for conference season.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I highly doubt we'd think about replacing our AD who inherited Guenther's and Thomas' messes after one hire in each sport, even at Illinois. That would be really dumb, IMO. Yes, our cranky fans will start to moan and not show up to the games (what else is new?), but Whitman gets another hire in both sports if they don't work out. If he waits too long in either one, however, that will lose him some good will.
Also, echoing another poster's reply, we honestly were in a LOT of games last year. If we were returning Black and/or had any type of inside game to speak of, I would predict us to take a big leap forward. We were extremely competitive in the following losses:
L 80-73 at Wake Forest (Big Ten/ACC Challenge)
L 72-68 "at" Northwestern (Rosemont, IL)
L 92-91 vs. Maryland (OT)
L 89-82 at UNLV
L 74-69 vs. New Mexico State (Chicago, IL)
L 64-63 at Nebraska
L 75-67 at #17 Ohio State
L 93-86 vs. #9 Purdue
Probably a few I'm missing that were closer than the score, honestly. Now, good teams don't choke away games, I get that ... but unlike with football, basketball gave a lot of fans a bit of hope, and they were fun to watch. More importantly, they gave it their all. I remain cautiously optimistic Ayo and Frazier can help us squeak out a few wins no one here is predicting.
Couple of things. I feel similarly, but how many did we win in similar situations?
W 64-57 vs. Austin Peay
W 62-58 vs Grand Canyon
W 73-71 vs Indiana
W 72-66 vs Nebraska
So if you believe in 50/50 games, that really only adds 2 wins. That kind of variance isn't too crazy.
Now, positively, like others have said, we were at least in games, and in them late. I absolutely hate labeling games as "winnable" but the majority were there. Looking back at the ESPN box score game tracker (and vaguely remember how frustrating it seemed), there were huge chunks of those games we'd just stop making baskets for. The OSU game was comical, too lazy to look it up but I swear we went like 12 mins without making a bucket. If we can cut down half those droughts (which means playing a competent half court offense), we win more games this year.
Deleted member 17900
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It's 275, but Fletch did post a clip of AJ doing a 405 max.
My unscientific view is that factors like conditioning, advanced scouting, game planning, in-game tactics, and talent are what allow you opportunities to be in games (or occasionally dominate games), but once you're in a position where winning is possible, more ephemeral things come into play, such as a team's collective personality.
- some teams are mentally tough and are able to will themselves to victory in more than their fair share of toss-up games
- some teams never quit, which allows them to steal more than their fair share of games in which they fall behind
- some teams have killer attitudes, and never let you back in a game once they are up
Deleted member 29907
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As in, "worse than Ebo last year" ?
Don't look for much.
I think we will surprise a few.
Illinisteve25
- Champaign
This game and Evansville to prepare for Georgetown and trip to Hawaii. Would love to see a dominate performance and not much messing around with lines ups ect until we are up big in second half....
Based on what we've been hearing (which is admittedly worth little), I think we should be pretty happy if Kane puts up an Ebo stat line for the season.
KrushCow31
Former Krush Cow
- Chicago, IL
I think it's a bit ridiculous that SI ranked Southern Illinois and Illinois State ahead of us. Would we win 10/10 matchups? No probably not. But 7 out of 10? 8 out of 10? I would assume so.
Kenpom has us 85, ISU 87, and SIU 88. Doesn't seem that ridiculous to me.
KrushCow31
Former Krush Cow
- Chicago, IL
I don't really consider preseason Kenpom to be very useful.
Not saying we wont end up in the 80-100 range in KemPom and etc., but I would assume their models break down pretty hard with roster turnover like we've had. Although, with how much love they get, it wouldn't surprise me if they have some sort of statistic of newcomers impact factored in. Either way, there will be movement.
It can definitely we wonky to start the season, but I do think it shows that SI's prediction isn't really ridiculous. They may well both end up being wrong (I certainly hope), but from where we stand today, those predictions seem reasonable.
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