Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday, March 28th, 9:09pm CT, TBS

BlueLeader said:

People were saying we were similar in style to BYU. Obviously a better team then them.

ISU split with them and was terrified of being matched up with BYU.

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Cyclone fan here. I think a better comparison would be Baylor. Baylor's adjusted O ranking was #6 prior to the dance and you guys were #2. Adjusted D, you guys were 143 Baylor was 152. The Bears averaged 82 and change PPG compared to your 84 and change. We played them at Waco, they won 70-68 (we made a 3 at the buzzer upon review it was .1 sec late). We played them in our conference tournament and held them to 62 (we won 76-62).

Our offensive struggles against Wazzou really had to do with their length and our guards adjusting. Agree with other points though, if you score 70 you'll be in good shape. If you take care of the ball and limit the turnovers, you'll be in good shape. It comes down to which team is able to execute/impose their style of play...I'll be stressed like I always am!

Fighter of the Nightman said:

Completely delusional bunch. Blows my mind how much more reasonable our fans are being in preparation for this one. VERY few fans here have not had a healthy respect for this ISU team going into this one. Meanwhile, they act like we are some upstart and they are this elite program. Again, all-time it's a bloodbath, as they have no real tradition to speak of. But even just in the last five years...

Record: ILL 116-48 (.707), ISU 84-76 (.525)
NCAAT Appearances: ILL 4, ISU 3
Sweet Sixteens: ILL 1, ISU 1
Second Round Appearances: ILL 3, ISU 2
Conference Championships: ILL 3 (1 regular season, 2 tournament), ISU 1 (0 regular season, 1 tournament)
Losing Seasons: ILL 0, ISU 2
AP Poll Finishes: ILL 4, ISU 1
---> ILL: #21 - #2 - #19 - NR - #10
---> ISU: NR - NR - NR - NR - #4

But they were better than us when John Groce was here back in 2017 ... congrats?? Their sense of entitlement HAS to be from some hangers-on status as a "Big XII program," right?? Status by way of being in the same league as Kansas, Baylor, Houston, etc.?! The only way I can wrap my mind around why they are SO confident that their #2 seed team will easily handle our #3 seed team is a religious-like devotion to the belief that the Big Ten is THAT bad that even their top 10 teams are just mediocre. Guess we'll see!

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Cherry picking the best 5 years of the Underwood era?

I won’t argue ISU total history comes close to touching Illinois because it doesn’t. But since 2010, Iowa State has had more success, other than 1 year we do not speak of.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

Completely delusional bunch. Blows my mind how much more reasonable our fans are being in preparation for this one. VERY few fans here have not had a healthy respect for this ISU team going into this one. Meanwhile, they act like we are some upstart and they are this elite program. Again, all-time it's a bloodbath, as they have no real tradition to speak of. But even just in the last five years...

Record: ILL 116-48 (.707), ISU 84-76 (.525)
NCAAT Appearances: ILL 4, ISU 3
Sweet Sixteens: ILL 1, ISU 1
Second Round Appearances: ILL 3, ISU 2
Conference Championships: ILL 3 (1 regular season, 2 tournament), ISU 1 (0 regular season, 1 tournament)
Losing Seasons: ILL 0, ISU 2
AP Poll Finishes: ILL 4, ISU 1
---> ILL: #21 - #2 - #19 - NR - #10
---> ISU: NR - NR - NR - NR - #4

But they were better than us when John Groce was here back in 2017 ... congrats?? Their sense of entitlement HAS to be from some hangers-on status as a "Big XII program," right?? Status by way of being in the same league as Kansas, Baylor, Houston, etc.?! The only way I can wrap my mind around why they are SO confident that their #2 seed team will easily handle our #3 seed team is a religious-like devotion to the belief that the Big Ten is THAT bad that even their top 10 teams are just mediocre. Guess we'll see!

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The Iowa State fans who are off the deep end generally have a serious case of “little brother syndrome” as it pertains to Iowa. They don’t have to think like that related to basketball to be honest, but some do.

I’ve lived around and worked with Cyclone fans pretty much my entire life. The specter of Iowa looms large for a not-small number of them. Most Cyclone fans that I know are generally reasonable.

allinforisu said:

Cherry picking the best 5 years of the Underwood era?

I won’t argue ISU total history comes close to touching Illinois because it doesn’t. But since 2010, Iowa State has had more success, other than 1 year we do not speak of.

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Picking 5 random "best" years would be "cherry-picking". Picking the last 5 years, for both teams, doesn't really translate to "cherry picking".

Rewatching a little of Wazu - Iowa State: the way Wazu was attacking that defense made very little sense (though probably a necessity given personnel constraints). Started most of their sets with at least one guy on the ball-side block with no intention of leaving that spot. Started some sets with two guys on either block, one of them leaving to set a ball screen.
Iowa state is generally fine with you getting the ball into the post if it’s not in the middle of the lane. They double that up and cause chaos. Iowa state is fine with you driving the ball into the lane if you’ve already brought an extra defender there by having a guy sitting on the block. They really swallow up smaller guards who get into the lane because they don’t just show and recover with their help; they help over ALL the way and stay with you as the guy you beat comes from behind to double. If you get into the lane and kick, they close out very aggressively.
This screams a couple of keys offensively: (1) Bigger guards will be more effective getting the ball back out to shooters, especially in pick/pop or roll replace back to the top of the key. (2) Coleman is going to catch the ball with guys closing out on him hard all night long. Needs to be solid - some decisive catch and shoots mixed in with some catch and rips to the hoop. Can’t get frustrated when he gets some contact in the lane. It is going to happen. He was great the other night off the dribble - even getting a shoulder by the defender 20 feet from the hoop and causing a little movement from a help defender is huge. (3) It can be hard to rebound when you move so much defensively; crash that far side of the glass. Ty and Q can get some demoralizing putbacks. (4) I think my favorite play from Saturday was the 15:00 mark when Duquesne really worked to prevent us from getting a perimeter mismatch. So we get Ty in a post against the freshman guard, which Duq thinks they are ready for with a double. Q cuts and drags his guy toward the hoop as Ty kicks it. One guy left to guard Marcus and TJ. Extra pass, bucket. Gotta stay calm after that primary option is cut off. Don’t get rushed into a bad shot; it’s HARD to stay guarding for 30 seconds in constant rotation - be strong with the ball and you’ll catch them in a spot where they don’t know whose cover is whose.

All my kids, last one in a few months, are ISU alumni. I am a fan of ISU for them and because of all of the money I've spent there. BUt as a previous employee of UI for many years and growing up a big fan, I will never go against the Illini!

socalini said:

Picking 5 random "best" years would be "cherry-picking". Picking the last 5 years, for both teams, doesn't really translate to "cherry picking".

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I guess my question is why 5? Why not 10 or 15?

Or at least only the years the current Iowa State coach has been there. The previous ISU coach ended with 3 out of 4 bad seasons, but Iowa State went from 2-22 with him to a Sweet 16 team with Otz in his first year. Just seems odd to pick a timeframe that doesn’t envelope the current state of the both programs big picture while including an aberration with one of the worst seasons in P5 basketball history.

allinforisu said:

I guess my question is why 5? Why not 10 or 15?

Or at least only the years the current Iowa State coach has been there. The previous ISU coach ended with 3 out of 4 bad seasons, but Iowa State went from 2-22 with him to a Sweet 16 team with Otz in his first year. Just seems odd to pick a timeframe that doesn’t envelope the current state of the both programs big picture while including an aberration with one of the worst seasons in P5 basketball history.

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“Why not 50?” - Indiana fans.

One Man Fast Break said:

Looks like line is down to 1.5. Started at 2.5. My initial prediction was 1.5 so maybe people are listening to me (they aren’t).

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My initial reaction before the spread came out was that it might be a pick em game. I was a little surprised it came out 2.5, but also guessed it would drop to 1-1.5 as the game got closer.

Modern ISU basketball history is quite eventful and weird really.

Tim Floyd replaced Phil Jackson with the Bulls thanks to his friendship with Jerry Krause far more than any ISU accomplishments, Larry Eustachy had that memorable scandal, Greg McDermott totally failed yet has gone on to wild success at Creighton, Fred Hoiberg basically invented the transfer portal, etc.

And now TJ Otzelberger is trying to become the first man ever to coach a Final Four team in a children's size small polo.

allinforisu said:

I guess my question is why 5? Why not 10 or 15?

Or at least only the years the current Iowa State coach has been there. The previous ISU coach ended with 3 out of 4 bad seasons, but Iowa State went from 2-22 with him to a Sweet 16 team with Otz in his first year. Just seems odd to pick a timeframe that doesn’t envelope the current state of the both programs big picture while including an aberration with one of the worst seasons in P5 basketball history.

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Did you actually read the post? 5 years seems like a pretty straightforward approach to showing current trajectory of both programs. Also @Fighter of the Nightman was simply trying to dispel any notion from one of your boards that was showing the Illini as a "one off" season. I think we can all agree that both Iowa State and Illini are very good this season, and it should be a great game.

The thing I am most worried about is how well Iowa State pressures the ball and creates turnovers. Tamin Lipsey is a straight up problem and he was named a finalist for Naismith Defensive Player of the Year. 2.7 steals per game is ridiculous. Keshon Gilbert isn't too far behind and Sixth Man Curtis Jones is right there as well. If there was one downside to Shannon's game against Duquesne it was that the turned it over more than you'd like. As we all know, Illinois does not have a "true" point guard so this could be an area of concern.

The one thing I am most excited about is rebounding. Iowa State is a below average rebounding team and Illinois is amongst the best in the nation. If shots are going off because they didn't turn Illinois over, then Illinois has a great chance of coming down with the rebound on any misses and getting second chance opportunities. Offensive rebounds are an area where Ty Rodgers could potentially shine.

ChiefGritty said:

And now TJ Otzelberger is trying to become the first man ever to coach a Final Four team in a children's size small polo.

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TJ’s just showing off the guns for a possible Pizza Hut parking lot encounter with Brad.

allinforisu said:

I guess my question is why 5? Why not 10 or 15?

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This is exhausting.

You haven't seen an offense like ours this season. And we haven't seen a defense like yours. Pretty hard to predict what will happen on Thursday. But trying to compare program histories certainly isn't going to get us any closer to that particular goal either.

Good luck. Should be fun.

allinforisu said:

Cherry picking the best 5 years of the Underwood era?

I won’t argue ISU total history comes close to touching Illinois because it doesn’t. But since 2010, Iowa State has had more success, other than 1 year we do not speak of.

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4 All American selections in Brads last 5 years is the same amount as Iowa State all time.

You don’t like past 5 years but would rather do last 10? What if we want to go back to since 2000? Or even further..?

Iowa States peak as a program was between 2012-now. Since 2012 Iowa State has 10 tournament appearances, 0 regular season B12 titles, 5 conference tournament titles, 4 sweet 16s.

Let’s cherry pick Illinois best 12 year stretch….2001-2013..10 tourney appearances, 4 regular season b1G titles, 2 conference tournament titles, 4 sweet 16s, an elite 8, and Final 4.

We can do this all day…..

Iowa State has been good since the 2010’s, Illinois has been better the past 5 years…. Illinois was really bad in the 2010’s…. Now we’re both really good. That should be it…

One Man Fast Break said:

The thing I am most worried about is how well Iowa State pressures the ball and creates turnovers. Tamin Lipsey is a straight up problem and he was named a finalist for Naismith Defensive Player of the Year. 2.7 steals per game is ridiculous. Keshon Gilbert isn't too far behind and Sixth Man Curtis Jones is right there as well. If there was one downside to Shannon's game against Duquesne it was that the turned it over more than you'd like. As we all know, Illinois does not have a "true" point guard so this could be an area of concern.

The one thing I am most excited about is rebounding. Iowa State is a below average rebounding team and Illinois is amongst the best in the nation. If shots are going off because they didn't turn Illinois over, then Illinois has a great chance of coming down with the rebound on any misses and getting second chance opportunities. Offensive rebounds are an area where Ty Rodgers could potentially shine.

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The way they trap is similar to Northwestern and Nebraska but they do it much more effectively and aggressively. So I do tend to agree that it will take us a second to adjust. I think a key is whether or not we effectively skip the ball and keep it moving in combination with hitting open 3's and also ripping off a skip and attacking the hoop. If we hit 3's at a decent clip and attack off the dribble, I think we can win this game.

allinforisu said:

Cherry picking the best 5 years of the Underwood era?

I won’t argue ISU total history comes close to touching Illinois because it doesn’t. But since 2010, Iowa State has had more success, other than 1 year we do not speak of.

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allinforisu said:

I guess my question is why 5? Why not 10 or 15?

Or at least only the years the current Iowa State coach has been there. The previous ISU coach ended with 3 out of 4 bad seasons, but Iowa State went from 2-22 with him to a Sweet 16 team with Otz in his first year. Just seems odd to pick a timeframe that doesn’t envelope the current state of the both programs big picture while including an aberration with one of the worst seasons in P5 basketball history.

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He chose the last 5 seasons because Underwood's first two seasons here were rebuilding from the Groce era in 2017. The 2019-2020 season marked the beginning of the Illini's return to relevancy. If that's not convincing enough of a reason, then we can choose Brad's entire career here since he took over in 2017:

Record: ILL 142-87 (.620), ISU 120-106 (.531)
NCAAT Appearances: ILL 4, ISU 4
Sweet Sixteens: ILL 1, ISU 1
Second Round Appearances: ILL 3, ISU 2
Conference Championships: ILL 3 (1 regular season, 2 tournament), ISU 2 (0 regular season, 2 tournament)
Losing Seasons: ILL 2, ISU 3
AP Poll Finishes: ILL 4, ISU 2
---> ILL: NR - NR - #21 - #2 - #19 - NR - #10
---> ISU: NR - #24 - NR - NR - NR - NR - #4

I think his point stands that there's no reason to think that ISU has a substantially richer history whether you look in the long term or short term. Going back 10-15 years would be cherry picking, and in response I would suggest to go back and compare the programs over the last 25 years.

All this to say, the original intent of his post was that regardless of certain ISU forum posters' beliefs, the Illini do have a comparatively rich basketball history, even if you only examine recent history.

allinforisu said:

I guess my question is why 5? Why not 10 or 15?

Or at least only the years the current Iowa State coach has been there. The previous ISU coach ended with 3 out of 4 bad seasons, but Iowa State went from 2-22 with him to a Sweet 16 team with Otz in his first year. Just seems odd to pick a timeframe that doesn’t envelope the current state of the both programs big picture while including an aberration with one of the worst seasons in P5 basketball history.

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You mentioned "since 2010... other than 1 year we do not speak of". If that's not cherry picking, I don't know what is. It's fine, we're all looking for an angle that favors our team.

I don't know who's going to win, or who's the better team. I think they're pretty evenly matched. I'd say:
7% chance Iowa State wins in a blowout
40% chance Iowa state wins a close game
33% Illinois wins a close game
20% Illinois wins in a blowout

Both teams are good. Both teams are hot. May end up being one of the best games of the tournament.

illini0440 said:

If they switch ball screens we will just screen until the smaller guys on him. My hope is they but a big on him because he just destroys opposing bigs.

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I’m more worried about us screening sideline side and them aggressively doubling MD off of that. He struggles a bit with aggressive pressure and that’s their MO.

JFGsCoffeeMug said:

You haven't seen an offense like ours this season. And we haven't seen a defense like yours.

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In fairness we did play #3 defense Tennessee and #4 defense Rutgers twice.

ISU played #6 offense Baylor twice and #13 offense BYU twice. I suppose you might say we're a bit of a mix of the two.

The four best offenses ISU has played against are Baylor, BYU, Houston and Texas A&M and they lost to all four (though also had four wins against that group)

I hope Sencire really gets after Domask on the scout team this week. If he can handle his pressure that’s a good sign.

Champaign88 said:

I’m more worried about us screening sideline side and them aggressively doubling MD off of that. He struggles a bit with aggressive pressure and that’s their MO.

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One bit of good news is that we play very little traditional pick-and-roll offense (the Duquesne telecast highlighted how Shannon rejects the ball screen almost every time), so we're not dependent on doing something that ISU's defense is elite at disrupting.

socalini said:

You mentioned "since 2010... other than 1 year we do not speak of". If that's not cherry picking, I don't know what is. It's fine, we're all looking for an angle that favors our team.

I don't know who's going to win, or who's the better team. I think they're pretty evenly matched. I'd say:
7% chance Iowa State wins in a blowout
40% chance Iowa state wins a close game
33% Illinois wins a close game
20% Illinois wins in a blowout

Both teams are good. Both teams are hot. May end up being one of the best games of the tournament.

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That “year we don’t speak of” comment was meant to be a joke. It was so bad.

ChiefGritty said:

We're not very similar to BYU, who attempted the most 3's in the entire country.

BYU just shot over the ISU defense, and more importantly shut them down defensively.

That's basically the story of every ISU loss. The nights they can't buy a 3 they just can't score enough to win.

The uncomfortable reality is that's mostly just going to be a question of luck.

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We actually kind of are similar to BYU in that were just a better version of them.

We play at a similar pace to BYU, both are above average in not turning the ball over(we're better than BYU), we actually shoot the 3 at a bit higher percentage than BYU(35.2 vs 34.8) but we don't shoot as much because we have more ability to get to the basket, and both Illinois and BYU are strong rebounding teams(Illini better offensively, BYU better defensively).

Also like BYU we are big, BYU was basically all 6'5+ like the Illini but the Illini are significantly stronger(BYU was skinny).

BYU played ISU twice. Beating them by 15 at home while shooting 13-35(37%) from 3. Losing by 5 at OSU despite shooting 8-29(27%) from 3 but they controlled the boards.

Obviously, 3 pt shooting is the great equalizer and if ISU can't miss and Illinois can't buy a bucket then it won't be good.

Key is going to simply avoid turning the ball over and not allow ISU to score in transition. Their offense is actually pretty stagnant if they're not forcing turnovers. Pass around the pressure, attack the basket, and knock down some open shots and I like the Illini's chances. Also, I don't think they have a guy that can really guard Dain.

I expect Iowa state to pack the paint and to try to force the Illini to settle for 3s. Will need Goode and Hawkins to knock some down but I think if Illinois comes out with a game plan to attack the paint like A&M did to Houston then Iowa state will be in trouble.

Shannon will have to avoid getting in foul trouble with charges because Iowa state likes to flop but I think he's done a good job of playing under control and even passing on drives.

ChiefGritty said:

In fairness we did play #3 defense Tennessee and #4 defense Rutgers twice.

ISU played #6 offense Baylor twice and #13 offense BYU twice. I suppose you might say we're a bit of a mix of the two.

The four best offenses ISU has played against are Baylor, BYU, Houston and Texas A&M and they lost to all four (though also had four wins against that group)

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And the Texas A&M loss was similar to Illinois loss to Marquette in that a lot of players were learning their roles and learning to play together. Most of the team was new to each other. Iowa State was also missing their center who had started all year to that point (Hason Ward) due to injury. He has come off the bench exclusively since then in a “spark” role and has thrived as long as he stays foul free, which is always a 50-50 proposition.