Updated for Purdue's win over Indiana- Not much changes other than about a 10% greater likelihood we finish with the 3 seed and Purdue finishes with the 2 seed. A win over Iowa means we're the 1 or 2 seed, a loss and we are the 3 seed.
Current projections for the BTT considering kenpom win probabilities. So far Indiana has clinched the 9 seed and Northwestern has clinched the 12 seed.
To summarize:
1: Wisconsin or Illinois
2: ILL, Pur, or Wisc
3: Pur or ILL
4-6: Iowa/OSU/Rut
7-8: MSU/Mich
9: Indiana
10-11: MD/PSU
12: Northwestern
13-14: Minn/Neb
Our Illini are most likely a 2-3 seed, with a small chance at the 1 seed. A win over Iowa cements at worst a 2 seed. Purdue owns tiebreakers over all teams close to them so they are locked in as a 2 or 3 seed. Iowa/OSU/Rutgers for the 4-6 seeds is extremely interesting as Rutgers owns tiebreakers over both OSU and Iowa but they're a game behind in the standings.
As for Matchups, it will be:
1 seed vs Winner of Mich/MSU v Ind
2 seed vs Winner of Mich/MSU v PSU/MD
3 seed vs Winner of Iowa/OSU/Rut v (Winner of PSU/MD v Minn/Neb)
4 seed vs Winner of Iowa/OSU/Rut v (Winner of NW v Minn/Neb)
A win against Iowa and we're the 1 or 2 seed. A loss to Iowa and Iowa gets the 4 seed with us dropping to the 3. In the scenario we fall to a 3 seed the likely opponent will be OSU/Rut (Maybe MD?). I think we likely want to avoid that, so in my opinion best to go out and beat Iowa and get the much more favorable 1 or 2 seed draw.