Pregame: Illinois vs Jackson State, Monday, November 3rd, 7:30pm CT, BTN

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#51      
thefalcon5
There’s a distinct difference between playing your 5 best players and playing your best 5 man lineup. Not saying they don’t have to be the same, but they are not always the same.

Just because Mirk may sit some minutes because Tomi is playing doesnt necessarily equate to a miscalculation by the staff. That being said if some like Z or Ben are playing over Mirk and are generally less effective, then you have to adjust. We just haven’t seen that yet.
 
#52      
BlabDunkAnd1
Other than his haircut, I saw the same Ben out there. He’s not bad, he’s just not a starter for a top team in this league. That said, I think you want to maximize the total amount of time that you have at least one of T or Mirk on the floor. If this means he’s first off the bench and plays starter minutes anyway, so be it.
 
#53      
Fly Illini Fly!
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
Riley's breakout game IMO was a game @Nebraska. It was a OT loss and there was a weird Ben for DGL sub-out late and Hummer took the first two shots of OT and finished 0-9. Dra was arguably the best player in that game.

Will then followed it up with his best game of the year IMO against Ohio State. Really become more comfortable in that mid-Januray stretch.
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If we take out BH's Northwestern and Nebby games, I don’t think he had that bad of a year.
 
#54      
IlliniFan42
NarrowJ said:
Definitely. I do remember people got excited when Will put up 31 vs Eastern Illinois in the same fashion as they're now excited about Mirkovic and pining for him to start. Will did score 18 vs Alabama, so lets give him that, but versus Ark/Tenn/Misery and the first half of the conf slate he shot 29 of 101 for 28% from the floor (stretch of 14 games).

This is also sort of why a bunch of people are cautioning "We should wait and see Mirk play against more difficult competition", because it may take him a bit to get comfortable. I'm not scared of the competition for him, he's played equal or better players in Euro ball and he also looked the part in the Hoops Summit game. He may just take some settling in, and he may just kind of hit the ground running like Queen did last year (you just ever know).

I also look and see Wagler being poised to start over 22 y/o Mihailo Petrovic which sort of proves to me that we will start whoever we think is best in that role, for whatever reason. And I can sort of see Mihailo in that Payton Pritchard/TJ McConnell role where they just come in at the 8-9 minute mark when opponent starters have had a nice little jog and bring an elevated level of energy and speed (sort of like the old school change-of-pace back concept in football, idk).
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Unless Petrovic is ineligible or still injured, based on what Wagler showed in the exhibition I'd be shocked if he started over Petrovic. And if Petrovic is that bad, that'd be a real miss by the staff.
 
#55      
NarrowJ
IlliniFan42 said:
Unless Petrovic is ineligible or still injured, based on what Wagler showed in the exhibition I'd be shocked if he started over Petrovic. And if Petrovic is that bad, that'd be a real miss by the staff.
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Well don't be shocked, Brad said he will start because he's earned it.

Anyway, why did you think Wagler had a bad game? He had 1 turnover in 28 minutes and shot the ball well, didn't try to do too much, etcetera. Its a bit silly to evaluate a kid after one game anyway, given what we've heard from a whole slew of sources in there watching practice (even national guys have got in on the high praise, Kevin Sweeney glowed about him).

Petrovic lit up Euro league, so I think he's probably pretty good too. If he is behind Wagler, I think that means the opposite: we got a real steal with Keaton.
 
#56      
Bigtex
NarrowJ said:
Well don't be shocked, Brad said he will start because he's earned it.

Anyway, why did you think Wagler had a bad game? He had 1 turnover in 28 minutes and shot the ball well, didn't try to do too much, etcetera. Its a bit silly to evaluate a kid after one game anyway, given what we've heard from a whole slew of sources in there watching practice (even national guys have got in on the high praise, Kevin Sweeney glowed about him).

Petrovic lit up Euro league, so I think he's probably pretty good too. If he is behind Wagler, I think that means the opposite: we got a real steal with Keaton.
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I agree I liked what I saw from WHAG LER as a first game as a true freshman. I think too many on here had been reading the press clippings and expected much more. He wasn't flashy and didn't score at will but he didn't make many mistakes either. His shot looked smooth. excited for the future with both Wagler and Petrovic (and everyone else)
 
#57      
IlliniFan42
NarrowJ said:
Well don't be shocked, Brad said he will start because he's earned it.

Anyway, why did you think Wagler had a bad game? He had 1 turnover in 28 minutes and shot the ball well, didn't try to do too much, etcetera. Its a bit silly to evaluate a kid after one game anyway, given what we've heard from a whole slew of sources in there watching practice (even national guys have got in on the high praise, Kevin Sweeney glowed about him).

Petrovic lit up Euro league, so I think he's probably pretty good too. If he is behind Wagler, I think that means the opposite: we got a real steal with Keaton.
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I wouldn't call it a bad game, just a game I expected based on his recruiting rankings and not based on all the hype. Based on the hype I was expecting to be wowed. The analytics from this one game don't show anything special. Again it's just one game, but it's an exhibition against Illinois State, so if you're gonna show off, now would make sense.

Also weirdly enough after the talk about Mirkovic needing to learn not to foul he ends up committing zero fouls while Wagler would have fouled out.

I guess my point after all this is that if Wagler is a perfectly fine borderline 3/4 star type player, and he's starting over Petrovic, then Petrovic has failed.
 
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#58      
thefalcon5
IlliniFan42 said:
I wouldn't call it a bad game, just a game I expected based on his recruiting rankings and not based on all the hype. Based on the hype I was expecting to be wowed. The analytics from this one game don't show anything special. Again it's just one game, but it's an exhibition against Illinois State, so if you're gonna show off, now would make sense.

Also weirdly enough after the talk about Mirkovic needing to learn not to foul he ends up committing zero fouls while Wagler would have fouled out.

I guess my point after all this is that if Wagler is a perfectly fine borderline 3/4 star type player, and he's starting over Petrovic, then Petrovic has failed.
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You’re drawing conclusions off the first (and only) exhibition game for a true freshman.

Agreed he wasn’t the second coming, but I think he performed extremely well in a moderate usage game. I think his defense flashed. And he shot 2/4 from three. If we’re going to extrapolate across a 30+ game season I’ll take good defense and a 50% 3 pt shooter every day and twice on Sunday.
 
#59      
NarrowJ
IlliniFan42 said:
I guess my point after all this is that if Wagler is a perfectly fine borderline 3/4 star type player, and he's starting over Petrovic, then Petrovic has failed.
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Agree that a 19 year old "perfectly fine borderline 3/4 type player" does not typically start ahead of a 22 year old Euro league MVP candidate. Either he is as good as advertised or Petrovic is extremely underwhelming. I am going to go with Brad/LaTulip/Werner/Kevin Sweeney on this for now, but we'll see what happens. I'm excited to watch a few games and see them vs Tex Tech and find out.
 
#61      
NarrowJ
thefalcon5 said:
You’re drawing conclusions off the first (and only) exhibition game for a true freshman.

Agreed he wasn’t the second coming, but I think he performed extremely well in a moderate usage game. I think his defense flashed. And he shot 2/4 from three. If we’re going to extrapolate across a 30+ game season I’ll take good defense and a 50% 3 pt shooter every day and twice on Sunday.
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I thought so too, 1 turnover in 28 minutes and that shot looks really pure. He is kind of the anti-KJ in that he isn't flashy but is very steady/heady and doesn't make mistakes. The most disappointing part of his initial outing for me was learning I had to pronounce his name WAH-gler. I can't explain it but it feels gross and I don't like it. :ROFLMAO:
 
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#62      
RichardKeenesCousin
LvilleILL1 said:
Wagler is going to have games where he doesn't pop off the page and games where he does. He is a very composed team player and makes the right play. Very rare for a freshman. Also, his defense is an improvement from where Will was last year.
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Agencylife Bingo GIF by MX Player
 
#63      
BrownTown
Given all the preseason hype, I was pleasantly surprised that Keaton wasn't pushing the issue to 'get his'. I think the natural inclination in that spot would be to wanna show off your game a bit. He never did, instead he exhibited a cool collectedness and that he is sincere about being a facilitator. (Alot of people say that but it's definitely not always the case).

Very mature to let the game come to him and play within himself. Short of having the Will Riley nuclear 1st game this was as good of a start as you can get.
 
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#64      
doowink
I am pretty excited about the balance of this Illini team more than any other squad we've had in a long time...If someone asks who do you think will be our alpha dog...go to guy...the guy that will put up 15-20 pt. every night...who do you go to when you need a bucket or need a big defensive stop.....I really don't know who I would say has the best chance to be...that guy...I can see any one of 6-7 guys that could have games where they appear to be that guy...both offense and/or defensively....which should bode well for this team...not allowing other teams to focus on stopping or exploiting just 1-2 of our players and expecting a W....I have no idea how this season will unfold and if any one individual will emerge as the Leader or THAT GUY....but I'm pretty pumped about the potential from what I've seen so far for this team
 
#65      
ptgrd23
who can name the McdAA on the Illini roster - he will be our #1 go to scorer. I am sure brad is looking for TSJ, Marcus Domask, KJ level performance.

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Dame Sarr got +2M. I have to believe Andrej got paid by Illinois

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Cooper Flagg reportedly earned a staggering amount of money at Duke. Who could be next in line? Here are the 10 most valuable men's college basketball players, per On3.
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#66      
BrownTown
ptgrd23 said:
who can name the McdAA on the Illini roster - he will be our #1 go to scorer. I am sure brad is looking for TSJ, Marcus Domask, KJ level performance.

View attachment 44380
View attachment 44381
www.sportscasting.com

2025 College Basketball NIL Rankings: Who Got the Biggest Deals?

Who are the richest players in men’s college basketball for 2025? From AJ Dybantsa to Donovan Dent, here are the top NIL deals this season.
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Dame Sarr got +2M. I have to believe Andrej got paid by Illinois

Top 10 men's college basketball players with highest NIL valuations | FOX Sports

Cooper Flagg reportedly earned a staggering amount of money at Duke. Who could be next in line? Here are the 10 most valuable men's college basketball players, per On3.
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Makes me wonder what $$ Andrej actually got?
 
#67      
illinifan1987
the juiceman cometh said:
There's definitely some revisionist history going on here. Will Riley had a stretch where he was borderline unplayable. From the Alabama game through the 2nd Northwestern game he was shooting 35% overall and 24% from three. After that, staring with the Nebraska game, he started to turn it around and his minutes turned around too, and within 3 weeks from that point he was starting.
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cbc kids yes GIF by CBC
 
#69      
OB positive
the juiceman cometh said:
At what point does a player prove they're worthy of starting? Surely, in the case of a player struggling like Riley was, it can't be one good game? Two? Three? And even though it took 3 weeks for him to start, he was hit 29+ minutes in every single one of those games after Nebraska except for the Duke game where he really struggled.

Of course you start your best 5. For most of the season Riley was not in the best 5. Maybe Mirk already is. Maybe he isn't. Maybe he isn't yet but will be at some point in the season. I don't think we know yet.
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Not starting Mirk would be a big mistake imo. He has already shown he can compete against high caliber competition.
 
#70      
OB positive
NarrowJ said:
Well don't be shocked, Brad said he will start because he's earned it.

Anyway, why did you think Wagler had a bad game? He had 1 turnover in 28 minutes and shot the ball well, didn't try to do too much, etcetera. Its a bit silly to evaluate a kid after one game anyway, given what we've heard from a whole slew of sources in there watching practice (even national guys have got in on the high praise, Kevin Sweeney glowed about him).

Petrovic lit up Euro league, so I think he's probably pretty good too. If he is behind Wagler, I think that means the opposite: we got a real steal with Keaton.
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If Petrovic starts and plays to his capabilities then we are a top ten team. If he isn't the best point gaurd on this team then we have to temper our expectations.
 
#71      
NarrowJ
OB positive said:
If Petrovic starts and plays to his capabilities then we are a top ten team. If he isn't the best point gaurd on this team then we have to temper our expectations.
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I think my expectations are tempered already just fine

Can’t wait to see us fully healthy vs Texas Tech

As far as Wagler, Petro: I think they’re both really good players and it’s nice to basically have three PGs
 
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#72      
IlliniFan42
jrichisamazing said:
I have never heard of this, do you have data or any articles about it?

Let's so we go down 10-5 in the first 5 minutes but tie the game 15-15 by the 10 minute mark. How is that any different than doing the opposite?
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This chart used NBA data, but it should hold out for college as well. The left axis is first team to reach X points and the top axis is how many points are they leading by when they reach that threshold. Note- it's possible to reach 1 point and lead by 3-5 points if the first made shot of the game is a 3-pointer. For example, if a team opens a game by making two 3-pointers before their opponent scores a point, they have a 61.7% chance of victory.

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#73      
lstewart53x3
IlliniFan42 said:
This chart used NBA data, but it should hold out for college as well. The left axis is first team to reach X points and the top axis is how many points are they leading by when they reach that threshold. Note- it's possible to reach 1 point and lead by 3-5 points if the first made shot of the game is a 3-pointer. For example, if a team opens a game by making two 3-pointers before their opponent scores a point, they have a 61.7% chance of victory.

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Not sure how reliable/predictive this data is.

A team up 6-0 has a better chance to win because they have 6 more points than the other team, not because they scored the first 6 points of the game. The 6-0 lead at the beginning of the game is the least likely to win 6 point lead of the game.
 
#74      
NarrowJ
lstewart53x3 said:
Not sure how reliable/predictive this data is.

A team up 6-0 has a better chance to win because they have 6 more points than the other team, not because they scored the first 6 points of the game. The 6-0 lead at the beginning of the game is the least likely to win 6 point lead of the game.
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I was gonna say… this graphic seems to indicate having the lead at the end of the game is more important than having the lead at the start of the game? 😁
 
#75      
lstewart53x3
NarrowJ said:
I was gonna say… this graphic seems to indicate having the lead at the end of the game is more important than having the lead at the start of the game? 😁
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The other thing this chart doesn’t take into account is who’s jumping out to the 6-0 lead. The chart tracks more than 13,000 games, but just 1,300 of them had a 6-0 lead. My question would be: how often is the team that’s favored the team that hits the 6-0 lead? My guess is the favorite jumps out to the early lead around 61.7% of the time 😉

For an extreme example of this:

If we spotted ISU a 6-0 lead to start the game and played 100 games, how many of those games would ISU win? Would it be 61? Of course not. They’d likely win 0. Because we’re 30 points better than them.

If we spotted them a 6 point lead with a minute to go? They’d win quite a lot of those.
 
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