This is shaping up to be one of my most difficult ticket tracking/attendance guesses. So many layered assumptions and bits of information to consider. To recap:
1. We expect a good crowd considering a Saturday night game with a 6pm kickoff against a ranked Power 4 opponent. AND Illinois had a strong showing in week 1 that provided no buzzkill heading into week 2.
2. There will be thousands of tickets given away to this game as part of two special events/promotions. Teachers are receiving free tickets and it's the annual high school Band Day where several area HS marching bands are invited to the game (free ticket) and they get to play with the Marching Illini at halftime.
3. The student turnout was reported very strong for EIU and will presumably continue for this game. The main student section was full and even the student overflow section 101 was reportedly "full" per a comment on the Tay and Piper radio show. (The tracking of student tickets is always black box since none of them publicly appear on the tickets site. My tracker always assumes a full main student section and a completely empty section 101 as a baseline. This is being adjusted more aggressively for this week.)
4. The Fighting Illini Football email that went out to season ticket holders claimed "LESS THAN 1,000 KANSAS TICKETS REMAINING." This claim was repeated by Bret Bielema during his press conference today.
Here is the current ticket tracker with some additional comments and caveats below:
I struggle to take at face value that there are less than 1,000 tickets available for this game, so this tracker flies in the face of what we're being told. The areas where tickets are being given away are the top 10-15 rows of sections 201-209; the top 10 rows of 112-120; and
perhaps the top 15 rows of sections 101-109. Those are all rows where no tickets has ever shown available for sale in the weeks/months up to now.
I wanted to compare tickets remaining in sections where there are
not large swaths of tickets being given away to a highly attended game last year: Wisconsin. As of tonight, there are 108 tickets remaining in sections 223-231 for Kansas. There were only 97 remaining ahead of Wisconsin. In sections 124-130 there are 38 tickets remaining for Kansas. There were only 23 remaining for Wisconsin. I think it's fair to say ticket sales are trending about like they were for Wisconsin, maybe a hair under, but add in the thousands of freebies that will be given away. My ticket tracker (51,734) and official guess (52,102) were light compared to actual announced attendance (54,205) for Wisconsin last year. If we assume that ticket sales are tracking about as they were for Wisconsin, plus another ~5,000 of free tickets given away, we could be talking about attendance above 59,000 which might prove out the math on "LESS THAN 1,000 KANSAS TICKETS REMAINING."
More to come later this week.