I feel like Egwu got some to fall at a decent clip. Black's 3 pt shot is way to flat to be consistent. I agree he needs to stop looking for it, but if its late in the sc and/or he's wide open, I say let it rip.
Pregame: Illinois vs Maryland, Saturday, January 14th, 5:00pm CT, ESPN2
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I feel like Egwu got some to fall at a decent clip. Black's 3 pt shot is way to flat to be consistent. I agree he needs to stop looking for it, but if its late in the sc and/or he's wide open, I say let it rip.
I do as well. And I miss him.
I have watched portions of all 4 B1G games Maryland has played. My eye test would agree with the Maryland fans.
They lost substantial production from last year and replaced them with Freshman. I don't think there are enough results to have washed that out of his formula.
They look substantially better than Michigan to me, and I don't really understand how ScUM at 11-6 can be ranked higher than the turtles at 15-2, who beat ScUM at Michigan. KenPom methodology works in most cases, but there are exceptions to all systems. I believe Michigan is vastly overrated and Maryland is vastly underrated with his methodology.
ILL in IA
- Iowa City
This team wont be short on quality wins or have a RPI that keeps us from dancing if they get 8 more conference wins down the stretch. I would rather play Rutgers twice over Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa...Better spot in the Big Ten tournament and a better chance go later into that weekend for 2 more wins.
The reason it can work out that way is, as crazy as it sounds, wins and losses don't matter in his system. Imagine team A and B play the same three opponents, Team A beats them all by 1 pt. Team B loses two games by 5 points each but wins game 3 by 20. Team A is 3-0 and Team B is 1-2 but in KenPom Team B would be rated higher. Like you said usually this works fine but there are exceptions. The problem with Maryland's rating is that they had a number of close calls against a rather weak non-conference schedule. If they keep winning it will correct itself.
I'm not following, you want to play Rutgers so we have a better BTT seed and get wins there instead of playing Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa. Who are you going to have to play in the BTT to get those "2 more wins"? Well.....probably teams like Maryland, Northwestern, Iowa.
And again, if we're "not short on quality wins" then it doesn't matter. Beating Rutgers does absolutely nothing for your resume. Piling up meaningless wins makes the overall record look better, but the committee doesn't care about that.
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Ken Pom has us a 2 point favorite, but Sagarin has it at 1 point.
It sounds like it will be a test to me.
It sounds like it will be a test to me.
Love this board. The ups and downs remind me of when my daughters were teenagers. Win and we believe we can beat just about anyone. Lose and we may never win another game, fire the coach and how did we recruit these guys.
Having said that, I am thoroughly convinced we are going to beat Maryland by 4-5 even if we don't shoot over 60%. Of course, that assumes Groce plays TJL and KN starter minutes.
Having said that, I am thoroughly convinced we are going to beat Maryland by 4-5 even if we don't shoot over 60%. Of course, that assumes Groce plays TJL and KN starter minutes.
In addition to a shooting slump he seems to have lost his bulldog demeanor. He is making unforced turnovers and stupid fouls. After each his body language shows he is really down on himself. Not sure if he is having physical problems that are slowing him down or he is just in a funk. Do not recall that he ever got this down on himself in earlier years. Or could he have a hard time with giving up time to a freshman who is 5-6 years younger than him. He seemed to adjust well to watching from the bench for two years during his injuries. Could he have become to cerebral over thinking his mistakes. Hope he returns to his previous bulldog self. If the team is going to emerge and go anywhere not only do the freshman have to step up but Tracy, JT and MT have to fulfill their roles whether as starters or subs.
Been at work so doing a lurklong-esque catch up post.
People thought I was crazy when I was suggesting something like this when we put up 51 on Indiana in the second half.
I think we have a shot in this game cause we don't have another ridiculous layoff after playing really well.
I've always felt like homecourt was worth about 10 points. Not promising vs Maryland, but maybe they come out lackadaisical based on the game in MD. Would be good news vs mich at Mich.
Leron looks rushed and out of his normal jump shot rythm to me when he takes threes. I think he can back his range up a couple steps for next year, but I'm also not a fan of the long 2s he takes from anywhere but in the pipe.
Love your optimism. I know we're not gonna stop them. Hope we keep the run 40+ Halves up.
People thought I was crazy when I was suggesting something like this when we put up 51 on Indiana in the second half.
I think we have a shot in this game cause we don't have another ridiculous layoff after playing really well.
I've always felt like homecourt was worth about 10 points. Not promising vs Maryland, but maybe they come out lackadaisical based on the game in MD. Would be good news vs mich at Mich.
Leron looks rushed and out of his normal jump shot rythm to me when he takes threes. I think he can back his range up a couple steps for next year, but I'm also not a fan of the long 2s he takes from anywhere but in the pipe.
Love your optimism. I know we're not gonna stop them. Hope we keep the run 40+ Halves up.
Shoot, did I forget to trademark those? :thumb:
I would like to see a show of hands from everybody who said the Illini would win 0 or 1 or 2 games in the first seven games in conference and how they think we already won 2 given the tough schedule.
2-5 is still a legitimate possibility considering we likely won't be the favorites in any of our next 3 games. Don't get ahead of yourself. I'm one of the more optimistic posters here and I'm not saying I think that'll happen, just that we shouldn't be surprised if it does.
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Ask yourself if you think we are going to shoot 60%+ from the field against Maryland. If the answer is no, then we are in trouble because this is why we looked good against Michigan. We let Michigan shoot 53% from the field and didn't turn them over often. This could be another blowout.
Deleted member 29907
D
Guest
Yeah, but we also beat them by 20. I think we only have to be up by 1 to win the game.
But that is how you beat Michigan. Michigan is a really good offensive team. They shoot well and don't turn it over. You beat them by crushing them on the boards and exposing their crappy defense. The Illini did exactly what you are supposed to against Michigan.
Maryland is a much different game. They are way better on defense so you won't shoot 60%, but on the flip side they haven't been as good as Michigan on the offensive side. Overall they are a better team then Michigan, but as the poster said you only have to beat them by 1.
Check out the BIG standings from the bottom. Rutgers, OSU, UM, IU!
From the top, MSU, UW, MD,Neb.
Giant pile in the middle. If we can hold home court against Md, (KenPom favors us) and beat MI on the road, we will be 4-3 coming out of the gate.
My optimism is way too far up at this point, but nobody had us 4-3 out of the gate in the BIG.
Home and home against Iowa, PSU and NW will determine our fate.
Go Illini!
From the top, MSU, UW, MD,Neb.
Giant pile in the middle. If we can hold home court against Md, (KenPom favors us) and beat MI on the road, we will be 4-3 coming out of the gate.
My optimism is way too far up at this point, but nobody had us 4-3 out of the gate in the BIG.
Home and home against Iowa, PSU and NW will determine our fate.
Go Illini!
This.
Should be a good game, we'll see.
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Illinifanatic4ever
- Orange & Blue Blood in my Veins
Sounds like the weather could be fun trying to get to the game. I haven't missed one yet but doesn't sound good for tomorrow.
Looking at kenpom eff ratings, UM's offensive eff ranking is 17 while their defensive is 148. MD offense is 74 while def is 53. If you think about how that UM game went, its obvious that we just outplayed them. Yeah their defense is bad, but their offense is one of the best in terms of efficiency, which they showed.
The key to the MD game will probably be our defense. It appears our offense is finally clicking (at least at home). If our inside shooting starts strong, we should have a chance.
The key to the MD game will probably be our defense. It appears our offense is finally clicking (at least at home). If our inside shooting starts strong, we should have a chance.
Is Maryland able to get in with the ice storm?
Win and I think we are on our way to a 10-8 B1G season. Lose and who knows. I'm tired of these "must-wins" but it seems every home game except maybe Wisconsin is.
Illinithad
- Northeast Missouri
Yes, that is correct. If you have one more point than your opponent at the end of the regulation or overtime, you are considered the winner.
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