Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

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#151      
it's time:
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Imagine if the boys all run out friday freshly-shorn.
 
#153      
We're a team that loves to play from ahead. We've only been able to come back from large deficits a couple of times this season, and I don't think we've actually won the games we did that with. The Nebraska game is the best example. We came back from down ten only to give up the buzzer beater.

The real issue has been that we're capable of just overwhelming opponents in the first twenty minutes but we don't have show the ability to keep those opponents down. We saw both sides of this in California. Huge lead against USC in the opening minutes that never really went away. Huge lead against UCLA in the opening 10 minutes and then we got lazy on defense and let their shooters get comfortable. In other words, precisely what Brad said about the team after the loss.

We have played 28 games across which we have enjoyed a +16.1 scoring differential and won 22 games with 5 of the 6 losses being 4 points or less (3 were in overtime - 1 of those without Boswell, one of those without Boswell AND Andrej - another buzzer beater, a 4 point loss vs Alabama without Tomi)

Seems we've been able to hold large leads just fine all season outside of a couple of games which isn't abnormal in any way whatsoever when taking into account the sample size (28 games)

I mean, he's unfortunately right.

Looks like, after all, he was not right

Precisely, the team gets rattled once down. I think this stems from a lack of confidence on the defensive side of the ball that we can string some stops together when the other team is feeling itself. This especially applies against top 15 teams. But it seems even a bubble team like UCLA not known for its offense can also go on on a 10-min 33pt run.

EDIT: Zero basis for this statement.. we were just down 6 late vs UCLA and came back, duh
 
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#154      
I mean, he's unfortunately right. We're a team that loves to play from ahead. We've only been able to come back from large deficits a couple of times this season, and I don't think we've actually won the games we did that with. The Nebraska game is the best example. We came back from down ten only to give up the buzzer beater.

The real issue has been that we're capable of just overwhelming opponents in the first twenty minutes but we don't have show the ability to keep those opponents down. We saw both sides of this in California. Huge lead against USC in the opening minutes that never really went away. Huge lead against UCLA in the opening 10 minutes and then we got lazy on defense and let their shooters get comfortable. In other words, precisely what Brad said about the team after the loss.

Precisely, the team gets rattled once down. I think this stems from a lack of confidence on the defensive side of the ball that we can string some stops together when the other team is feeling itself. This especially applies against top 15 teams. But it seems even a bubble team like UCLA not known for its offense can also go on on a 10-min 33pt run.
 
#155      
Precisely, the team gets rattled once down. I think this stems from a lack of confidence on the defensive side of the ball that we can string some stops together when the other team is feeling itself. This especially applies against top 15 teams. But it seems even a bubble team like UCLA not known for its offense can also go on on a 10-min 33pt run.
The D was ridiculous but UCLA offense at home is a different animal. They shoot quite well.
 
#159      
Do you guys think Morez will get booed louder than Eric Gordon?
I don't really care that he transferred anymore, he signed an NIL and backed out. His decision looks decent for him at this time but if he didn't want to play here who cares about him. I think Booing somebody just gives them more fire to play better/harder, fires them up. Never want to add fuel to the fire, they are already the number 1 team for a reason and he has a lot to do with that.
 
#163      
The difference between what the computer models and analytics predict and what you predict is called cognitive bias
Yes. And, though I don't have the KenPom subscription, I'd bet that his model will predict Michigan by ~3 pts or so.

Everything else is just spirited chatter at the rail. Good for the sake of argument and bonding.

Or starting bar fights. ;)
 
#164      
“Live by the 3 and die by the 3” is just the placeholder fans say whenever you lose and shoot poorly from 3.

We shot incredibly well from 3 against Wisconsin and lost, while we also had the Indiana game you just highlighted.

Most of our missed 3s yesterday, we got points anyway because we rebound the hell out of the ball, which is the very definition of doing other things well than living and dying by chucking.

I’m far concerned with keeping Cadeau out of the lane Friday than I am about this team shooting 3’s
Placeholder fans. Lol. Get off your high horse dude.

You have an equally good chance at rebounding shots that are closer to the rim. I think at this point we’re allowed to be frustrated that on the nights our shot isn’t falling that we don’t get in the paint more, especially given how good of a free throw shooting team we are. It doesn’t mean we aren’t an incredible offense.

Your last point is correct though, defense is the main reason we lost against UCLA and it’s likely the main reason we will succeed or fail going forward.
 
#165      
Yes. And, though I don't have the KenPom subscription, I'd bet that his model will predict Michigan by ~3 pts or so.

Everything else is just spirited chatter at the rail. Good for the sake of argument and bonding.

Or starting bar fights. ;)

Yup, KP has Michigan favored by a tad

Torvik has Illinois favored by 1.1 points with 54% chance of winning

ESPN analytics has Illinois with 51% chance of winning

Certainly not a situation where the average result would be Illinois getting beat by 20+ (we're also 17-11 ATS this season so we typically outperform the analytics/sportsbooks)
 
#167      
What will the discourse here be if Morez hits at least 2 threes on us. I bet he really wants to make a point he can do what Illinois didn’t trust him to do.
We want to make a point about trusting the NIL deal he agreed to with us.
 
#169      
Hopefully our players can flip the page quicker than us loyalty members. Going to take a concentrated effort on D and cant have Michigans size and length scare us on offense. Absolutely think we can come away with this one and wash this nasty taste out of our mouths and start a mini streak heading into the BTT.
 
#171      
Placeholder fans. Lol. Get off your high horse dude.

You have an equally good chance at rebounding shots that are closer to the rim. I think at this point we’re allowed to be frustrated that on the nights our shot isn’t falling that we don’t get in the paint more, especially given how good of a free throw shooting team we are. It doesn’t mean we aren’t an incredible offense.

Your last point is correct though, defense is the main reason we lost against UCLA and it’s likely the main reason we will succeed or fail going forward.

"a placeholder fans say" not "placeholder fans", man. Good lord with the high horse nonsense.

Many fans say "live and die by the 3" when a team doesn't shoot well from 3. Live and die by 3 implies it's the only thing you can do, and when shots dont go in you're scewed. As @Fly Illini Fly! has pointed out probably a dozen times now, we had more offensive rebounds than UCLA did defensive and got to the line 31 times (taking away more 2-point field goal attempts) - the points per possession would be the number 1 mark in all of college basketball this year that game.

and despite all of that, you ended the post agreeing the defense is why we lost and the offense should have been more than enough.
 
#172      
Placeholder fans. Lol. Get off your high horse dude.

You have an equally good chance at rebounding shots that are closer to the rim. I think at this point we’re allowed to be frustrated that on the nights our shot isn’t falling that we don’t get in the paint more, especially given how good of a free throw shooting team we are. It doesn’t mean we aren’t an incredible offense.

Your last point is correct though, defense is the main reason we lost against UCLA and it’s likely the main reason we will succeed or fail going forward.
That's not what that sentence was intended to convey. "The placeholder that fans say..." is what he was aiming for.
 
#175      
I don't really care that he transferred anymore, he signed an NIL and backed out. His decision looks decent for him at this time but if he didn't want to play here who cares about him. I think Booing somebody just gives them more fire to play better/harder, fires them up. Never want to add fuel to the fire, they are already the number 1 team for a reason and he has a lot to do with that.
I was really really disappointed how that situation played out, but he was a warrior for us last year. I'll boo him as hard as anybody else on Michigan but IDKWTI was a different time and scenario. I won't root FOR him like I do with some other fellas that have moved on, that's the best I can do.
 
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