Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
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Jealous! I have been keeping my eye out by prices are steep.
Based on what we've seen, this would be better than us getting off to a hot start.
At this point, just get a win, no matter what it looks like.
I just hope everyone has a good time.
May I ask why we should believe Illinois DOESN’T have a “ghost of a chance?”
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This is not even worth your time. This is just somebody that’s hoping to set himself up to come back and say I told you so.
This might be the single biggest factor in the game. We absolutely cannot get beat up on the glass. Our advantage in most games is our ability to hit the glass and create second and third opportunities.
I do believe that Michigan is going to throttle us in the interior on both ends. That's just what they do.
This all leads back to relying on the three. Unless we, at very least, force a stalemate on the glass, we're going to have to make a significant amount of threes to limit their ability to crash the glass and get out in transition. It's a tall order. I'm not a fan of living or dying with the three, but I'm not sure there's an option B here.
Seems like the only blowhard here, based on that comment, is you.
Hey, with only a 1.5 point spread, which is basically a pick 'em and you think the game is already over and we don't have a chance, you should probably bet the mortgage on Michigan. We'll wait to see the bet slip.
I'm assuming you won't be watching since you already know the outcome? I'm guessing that if we lose, you'll be here saying "told you so", but if we win you'll be nowhere to be found.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
I've got a hopeful but cautious outlook. I'm not asking for much, but a 103-24 beatdown would be on my wishlist. Unfortunately I'm playing a gig in the Tampa area tonight and will have to watch the game when I'm done around midnight. Go O&B!
Good guys in Orange get the win tonight... 86 - 79
IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
I understand criticizing a team you cheer for (I'm as happy as anyone to side eye our seeming inability to close out games/handle OT), but if you have such a negative outlook, what's the point of watching and coming to a message board to talk about the team?
I'm genuinely asking. Even in the worst years of Illinois sports, I never watched with the expectation we'd lose; I just wasn't surprised when it happened. There seem like better ways to spend your time/improve your outlook if the Illini make you so miserable.
-1.1 or +1.5 is moot. It's a pick 'em line. He's not wrong in the fact that this will have to be our very best game of the year. Given their strength vs our deficiencies, our margin for error is going to be very, very small. We have to control the boards OR hit the three at a extremely high rate. I think that we're going to get pounded in the paint on both ends, so that leaves one feasible option and that's probably hitting 16 to 18 threes to mitigate their advantage on the glass and to keep them out of transition.
Mirkovic + Ivisic will be the ones who simply cannot have bad games. They're the keys on both ends. If either have a bad game, we won't be in it at the end.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Brad teams have typically done well in these settings with a couple extra practice/rest days.
Get Andre back to full health, Boswell full practicing, rest for freshmen getting late in the season. I think we come out well
Get Andre back to full health, Boswell full practicing, rest for freshmen getting late in the season. I think we come out well
If we play our game I do think we can give them fits. We can burn their drop coverage with Mara. If they go small and switch 1-5 I’m not 100% sure Keaton can consistently win a matchup against Yaxel or Morez. However, we should be able to kill them on the offensive glass with the cross matching like we did vs Purdue.
If we can’t hit a 3 all bets are off of course but I think we have counters to their counters.
If we can’t hit a 3 all bets are off of course but I think we have counters to their counters.
There is 0% chance that we're going to kill them on the offensive glass. My concern is the exact opposite.
Your comment about the threes is 100% accurate. In a lot of games, we could be ok being average from three. Given the matchups, we'll have to be outstanding. Pulling them away from the rim is great, but if we can't make them pay, it's moot. We will not get easy/greasy baskets/put backs in this one.
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This has been pointed out a bunch of times, but 5 of the 6 games Michigan has played that were very close (< 5 points) their opponent shot poorly from 3
So its just pure fallacy that we have to make a bunch of 3s to compete here… since mid December we’ve been the better team anyway (even with our 2nd most important player missing half of the games).
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Our offensive rebounding comes from long rebounds on missed threes. If we were crashing the boards, out muscling teams, getting easy outbacks, etc, I'd agree. We've lost multiple games recently because we can't secure rebounds. Michigan is a whole different animal than anything we've seen with bigs.
Now, if we're getting a lot of long rebounds, it means we're missing a lot of threes. That simply can't happen given what can occur on the defensive end.
this narrative that Illinois gives up so many advantages and needs to play out of their minds to even have a chance in a game with a pickem spread is idiotic
we are the better rebounding team and we have people saying we’re gonna get murdered on the glass… dumb
we are the better rebounding team and we have people saying we’re gonna get murdered on the glass… dumb
If they get cross-matched against our bigs we can. See Purdue. Yes, Keaton was transcendent. But another big reason why we won that game was Purdue Switched 1-5. And not only did that leave Cluff on Keaton, it meant that their guards had to try and box out our bigs which is why we dominated the rebounding margin. We missed 28 shots but got 13 of them back.
If Cadeau has to block out Mirk, Davis, Tomi, you name it, I like our chances.
Michigan is only +21 on the entire season on the offensive glass, less than 1 per game (includes cupcakes, they're negative in conf play... meaning they've been outrebounded on off glass overall during conf play)
Here are teams that outrebounded Michigan this season on the offensive glass
Wake Forest 14-12
Gonzaga 10-5
Rutgers 12-10
Maryland 9-5
Penn State 14-7
Washington 15-12
Oregon 11-8
Michigan St 13-8
UCLA 9-6
Duke 12-7
They've gotten killed on off rebs vs some really, really bad teams... why can't Illinois (an ELITE rebounding team, in the top 1 percentile nationally) win the offensive glass against a team that is actually very poor in that category?
EDIT: I'm just really looking forward to all of the "I told you so" posts at the 1st TV timeout when Michigan is up 8 to 5
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This is the game I have had circled all season long, win this game and I will be so happy.
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