Illinois schedule after Nebraska also gets REAL!!! Could be great February but could be a very tough FEB!!
Pregame: Illinois vs Nebraska, Tuesday, January 31st, 6:00pm CT, BTN
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Just when I thought we would be seeing Lieb on a regular basis, he disappears. Would have been nice to see him get a few minutes at whiskey, but then it looked like BU had a tight substitute rotation going and nobody got in serious foul trouble and Dain became the answer.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
RJ plays 22 minutes a game and played 26 and 30 the last 2 games.
CleaverName
- Chicago but not there anymore
I like the way you phrased the question about RJ, is he a 25% in-game 3pt shooter performing at average, or a 40% shooter under-performing. I hope the second and that he snaps out of it tomorrow
But I'll push back on the team portion, this year's team isn't the same as last year's team, and even within this season the team is performing radically different from month to month. Yes you can take the average of those performance but citing the Bracketology thread, using past team's performance as a predictor isn't going to work that well. Different teams have different expectations and tend to perform similarly from year to year but not because they need to revert to average but because the best players go to the best programs and the worst to the worst so the teams end up being relatively similar year to year
Illinois' basketball and football programs are both trending upwards and I sincerely hope that we don't return to the averages of the past decade !
Ia beat NW. Md to beat IU tomorrow and we win should put us in 2nd place.
And Lieb
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Ex-engineer/longtime investment finance guy here. I haven't taken or applied stats at work in probably 25 years but dimly recall that true mean is the population mean, which can't be apprehended b/c the population can't be apprehended. We're always dealing with a sampled subset of the population.
Happy to be corrected by someone who has more than a dozen synapses to rub together after a 14-hour day.
Many on here seem to think LG will make little or no difference coming back this year. He can’t get into playing shape, He averaged 2 points a game last year, etc…. Sounds like he’s a broken down 60 year old like most of us.
Horse hockey!! Let’s welcome back Luke with a youthful exuberance full of optimism!!
“Horse hockey”?!?!? Let the memes begin!
I first heard it in refernce to the stock market in december 2021. I wish i would have listened and sold everything while the market reverted to it’s historical mean.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I don't know that it's a real term as such - I meant to refer to the mean of the underlying distribution (as opposed to the sample mean). I'm sure there's more precise language.
InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
RJ''s 3 pt issues seem mechanical and most likely stem from his injured shoulder. May have forced him to change mechanics and just not back yet. He is a better shooter than he has shown. His base (feet) seem really close together which can make the jump shot a little more unstable.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I’ve always seen the stat that Final Four teams actually have minutes pretty “tight” with the starters and then about 3-4 bench guys who play … so putting the “deep is good” thing to the test. Maybe we’re trying to really settle into a routine?
If it's a mechanical issue, then I would expect it to affect him in practice, too. I haven't seen him in practice, but I thought the word was that he doesn't miss in practice.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
WHAT?
Clearly the engineer in you. Yes. "Regress to the mean" is perhaps one of the clearest phrases used on Illinois Loyalty. Kudos to our fellow poster for using it in this context. It's also called basketball speak. We all know that Northwestern sucks. They've appeared in the NCAA tournament exactly one time in their entire college basketball history. Oh, and they joined in 1896 as a charter member. They are the perennial doormat of the Big 10 conference. They belong nowhere near the top of the conference standings. Our IL friend & colleague is simply saying he's waiting for NW to return to their normal and expected state of suckiness....................i.e. the mean...................i.e. at/near last place.............................as they've done throughout their basketball history. Mean = average. NW has averaged last place in the Big 10 since its inception in 1896.
No fallacy. Just fact. And a natural average for a rather pitiful basketball program.
BTW --- Speculating that Illinois, Indiana and Purdue have probably averaged finishing in the 1-2-3 spots in the standings.
Horse hockey!! Let’s welcome back Luke with a youthful exuberance full of optimism!!
Is Goode a Leftwinger or a Rightwinger?
Also in the case of RJ, this mythical “mean” he is supposed to regress to with his 3-point shooting is based on 15 attempts last year. I think his 3-point shooting will improve — has too good of form for it not to right? — but don’t think we’ll see him equaling the 60% he shot last year. I thought after the Indiana game that there was light at the end of the tunnel, but he’s been back to bad last two games. Hopefully soon.
intuitively oblivious
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Part of that being typically the starters on a final four team are all conference / NBA prospects so they are significantly better than a bench player. Illinois path may be slightly different as not sure there’s the same drop off between our 3rd and 7th best player. TSJ is probably our only first or second team all conference guy as of right now. Not saying Mayer hasn’t played like it the past month…
The proof is left as an exercise for the reader
Captain 14
- The Last Best Place
Don't be mean now...
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